Polls are closed in NY-03 now, but it could be a while before we get a critical mass of the vote in. One indicator of how things may compare to 2022 is the partisan breakdown of votes so far, published by Queens and Nassau counties. Early reports suggested Democrats have improved over that election, with about 43 percent of ballots returned as of 7:40PM coming from New York voters registered as Democrats. That compares to 35 percent from registered Republicans — or an 8-point gap. That’s up from a 4-point gap in 2022’s final results.
Of course, party registration is not the same as voting behavior (Santos won that election, after all) — and a good chunk of NY-03 voters today are not registered with a party. So things could still go the other way. But on balance, I’d expects thing will look better for Democrats than in 2022.
—G. Elliott Morris, 538
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