The Fox Footy expert verdict is in – and the AFL world needs to get ready for the Brisbane revenge tour.
Of the 21 voters who’ve looked into the crystal ball for the 2024 season, a majority of 13 backed Chris Fagan and the Lions to finally claim the flag they’ve been so close to for half a decade.
As Brisbane great Alastair Lynch explained, his former club have been arguably the AFL’s best performers since entering the top four mix in 2019; they’re just without the ultimate prize to prove it.
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“They’re the only team to play in finals all of the past five years and they’ve won the most games over the last five years,” Lynch said.
“The team that narrowly got beaten on Grand Final day last year will improve: Will Ashcroft will come in for the second half of the year, Tom Doedee comes in too and their better players like Hugh McCluggage and Zac Bailey are young and improving … They’ve got to win one.
“There’ll be a next year, but those stats are both good and bad. You play finals the last five years and win the most games last five years and not win one? That’s no good. I think they are legitimately getting better, so they’ve got to win one.”
His premiership teammate Jonathan Brown pointed to their off-season inclusion of Crows defender Tom Doedee, plus the looming return of young gun Will Ashcroft, as reasons to believe the Lions can get even better.
“They’ve gradually improved and I think last year was the first genuine year where they were genuine contenders with the physical make-up of their team,” Brown said.
“They were beaten convincingly by teams that went on to win the flag in previous seasons, so I didn’t think they were around the mark then. Last year, they proved they were – and they’ve only upgraded their list since.
“With Ashcroft and Doedee coming back into the line-up and Jack Payne, who didn’t play Grand Final day, they’re pretty big ins, all things being equal and they have a good run with injuries.”
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But while Brisbane was the clear most popular pick to win the 2024 premiership, ahead of reigning champs Collingwood (three of 21 votes), the finals race looks incredibly unpredictable.
A full 14 clubs received multiple votes to finish inside the top eight, with only four -Richmond, Hawthorn, North Melbourne and West Coast – failing to poll a vote.
The Lions, Magpies and GWS were unanimous selections while Adelaide (13 of 21 votes) was the most popular selection to move into the top eight.
A thrilling Brownlow Medal race, showcasing the next generation of superstars, looms with Collingwood’s Nick Daicos, GWS’ Tom Green and Sydney’s Errol Gulden polling five votes each.
Reigning Coleman Medallist Charlie Curnow pipped North Melbourne’s Nick Larkey in the predicted goalkicking race.
OVERALL VOTES (21 voters)
To play finals
21 (of 21) – Brisbane Lions, Collingwood, GWS Giants
20 – Carlton
17 – Melbourne
16 – Port Adelaide
14 – Sydney Swans
13 – Adelaide Crows
7 – Western Bulldogs
6 – St Kilda
5 – Geelong
3 – Essendon
2 – Fremantle, Gold Coast Suns
Premiers
13 – Brisbane Lions
3 – Collingwood
2 – GWS Giants, Sydney Swans
1 – Carlton
Runner-up
9 – Collingwood
3 – Brisbane Lions, Carlton, GWS Giants
2 – Sydney Swans
1 – Melbourne
Wooden spoon
18 – West Coast Eagles
3 – North Melbourne
Brownlow Medal
5 – Nick Daicos (Collingwood), Tom Green (GWS Giants), Errol Gulden (Sydney Swans)
2 – Marcus Bontempelli (Western Bulldogs)
1 – Zak Butters (Port Adelaide), Toby Greene (GWS Giants), Christian Petracca (Melbourne), Caleb Serong (Fremantle)
Coleman Medal
6 – Charlie Curnow (Carlton)
5 – Nick Larkey (North Melbourne)
4 – Jeremy Cameron (Geelong)
2 – Aaron Naughton (Western Bulldogs)
1 – Ben King (Gold Coast Suns), Max King (St Kilda), Jamarra Ugle-Hagan (Western Bulldogs), Taylor Walker (Adelaide)
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JONATHAN BROWN
Top 8 changes: Adelaide and Western Bulldogs IN, St Kilda and Sydney OUT
Premiers: Brisbane Lions. “So close last year. The additions of Will Ashcroft, Tom Doedee and Jack Payne, all not there on Grand Final day should get them to the promised land.”
Runner-up: Collingwood
Wooden spoon: West Coast Eagles
Brownlow Medal: Nick Daicos (Collingwood)
Coleman Medal: Jeremy Cameron (Geelong)
BEN COTTON
Top 8 changes: Adelaide IN, St Kilda OUT
Premiers: Collingwood
Runner-up: Brisbane Lions
Wooden spoon: West Coast Eagles
Brownlow Medal: Nick Daicos (Collingwood)
Coleman Medal: Nick Larkey (North Melbourne)
BEN DIXON
Top 8 changes: Adelaide and Essendon IN, Melbourne and St Kilda OUT
Premiers: Collingwood. “System and talent, clearly the competition leaders in these areas, young enough to be still hungry and their ability to win tight games in clutch moments is no fluke.”
Runner-up: Sydney Swans
Wooden spoon: West Coast Eagles
Brownlow Medal: Toby Greene (GWS Giants)
Coleman Medal: Charlie Curnow (Carlton)
JASON DUNSTALL
Top 8 changes: Adelaide IN, St Kilda OUT
Premiers: Brisbane Lions
Runner-up: Collingwood
Wooden spoon: West Coast Eagles
Brownlow Medal: Marcus Bontempelli (Western Bulldogs)
Coleman Medal: Charlie Curnow (Carlton)
BRAD JOHNSON
Top 8 changes: Western Bulldogs IN, St Kilda OUT
Premiers: Brisbane Lions. “They have class all over the ground and will finish top 4 to put themselves in the best position to hold up the cup in 2024.”
Runner-up: Carlton
Wooden spoon: North Melbourne
Brownlow Medal: Errol Gulden (Sydney Swans)
Coleman Medal: Aaron Naughton (Western Bulldogs)
SARAH JONES
Top 8 changes: Adelaide and Essendon IN, Port Adelaide and St Kilda OUT
Premiers: Brisbane Lions
Runner-up: Collingwood
Wooden spoon: West Coast Eagles
Brownlow Medal: Errol Gulden (Sydney Swans)
Coleman Medal: Jeremy Cameron (Geelong)
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JACK JOVANOVSKI
Top 8 changes: Adelaide and Geelong IN, Port Adelaide and Sydney OUT
Premiers: Brisbane Lions
Runner-up: Collingwood
Wooden spoon: West Coast Eagles
Brownlow Medal: Tom Green (GWS Giants)
Coleman Medal: Nick Larkey (North Melbourne)
DAVID KING
Top 8 changes: Western Bulldogs IN, Melbourne OUT
Premiers: Collingwood. “I think the Pies will be better in year three under Craig McRae. Collingwood played awesome football pre-bye last year, but patchy after that point, winning games in bursts, which avails significant scope for improvement.”
Runner-up: GWS Giants
Wooden spoon: West Coast Eagles
Brownlow Medal: Nick Daicos (Collingwood)
Coleman Medal: Nick Larkey (North Melbourne)
MAX LAUGHTON
Top 8 changes: Adelaide and Geelong IN, Carlton and Sydney OUT
Premiers: Brisbane Lions
Runner-up: GWS Giants
Wooden spoon: West Coast Eagles
Brownlow Medal: Marcus Bontempelli (Western Bulldogs)
Coleman Medal: Max King (St Kilda)
KATH LOUGHNAN
Top 8 changes: Adelaide and Fremantle IN, Port Adelaide and St Kilda OUT
Premiers: GWS Giants. “I want to see history made with Toby Greene and Adam Kingsley leading the Giants to their first ever premiership.”
Runner-up: Brisbane Lions
Wooden spoon: North Melbourne
Brownlow Medal: Nick Daicos (Collingwood)
Coleman Medal: Taylor Walker (Adelaide)
ALASTAIR LYNCH
Top 8 changes: Nil
Premiers: Brisbane Lions. “They’re the only team to play in finals all of the past five years and they’ve won the most games over the last five years. The team that narrowly got beaten on Grand Final day last year will improve: Will Ashcroft will come in for the second half of the year, Tom Doedee comes in too and their better players like Hugh McCluggage and Zac Bailey are young and improving … They’ve got to win one. There’ll be a next year, but those stats are both good and bad. You play finals the last five years and win the most games last five years and not win one? That’s no good. I think they are legitimately getting better, so they’ve got to win one.”
Runner-up: Collingwood
Wooden spoon: West Coast Eagles
Brownlow Medal: Errol Gulden (Sydney Swans)
Coleman Medal: Jeremy Cameron (Geelong Cats)
GARRY LYON
Top 8 changes: Geelong IN, St Kilda OUT
Premiers: Brisbane Lions. “Been trending towards this for 5 years. They’re ready.”
Runner-up: GWS Giants
Wooden spoon: West Coast Eagles
Brownlow Medal: Tom Green (GWS Giants)
Coleman Medal: Charlie Curnow (Carlton)
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LEIGH MONTAGNA
Top 8 changes: Geelong IN, Sydney OUT
Premiers: Brisbane Lions. “This is their season, no excuses, Gabba fortress, players in their prime.”
Runner-up: Melbourne
Wooden spoon: West Coast Eagles
Brownlow Medal: Caleb Serong (Fremantle)
Coleman Medal: Charlie Curnow (Carlton)
CAMERON MOONEY
Top 8 changes: Adelaide and Geelong IN, Melbourne and St Kilda OUT
Premiers: GWS Giants. “They have all three areas covered well as a team, with game winners on every-line and last year will push them to go further.”
Runner-up: Collingwood
Wooden spoon: West Coast Eagles
Brownlow Medal: Tom Green (GWS Giants)
Coleman Medal: Nick Larkey (North Melbourne)
MATTHEW PAVLICH
Top 8 changes: Essendon and Fremantle IN, Port Adelaide and St Kilda OUT
Premiers: Carlton
Runner-up: Sydney Swans
Wooden spoon: West Coast Eagles
Brownlow Medal: Christian Petracca (Melbourne)
Coleman Medal: Jeremy Cameron (Geelong)
MARK RICCIUTO
Top 8 changes: Adelaide and Gold Coast IN, St Kilda and Sydney OUT
Premiers: Brisbane Lions. “Very close last year and would be hungrier than ever.”
Runner-up: Collingwood
Wooden spoon: North Melbourne
Brownlow Medal: Zak Butters (Port Adelaide)
Coleman Medal: Nick Larkey (North Melbourne)
JACK RIEWOLDT
Top 8 changes: Adelaide and Gold Coast IN, Port Adelaide and St Kilda OUT
Premiers: Sydney Swans
Runner-up: Collingwood
Wooden spoon: West Coast Eagles
Brownlow Medal: Errol Gulden (Sydney Swans)
Coleman Medal: Ben King (Gold Coast Suns)
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DWAYNE RUSSELL
Top 8 changes: Western Bulldogs IN, St Kilda OUT
Premiers: Brisbane Lions. “Perfectly placed to go one better after meeting a better team on Grand Final day last year, and blowing a golden opportunity when the grand final was at the Gabba.”
Runner-up: Collingwood
Wooden spoon: West Coast Eagles
Brownlow Medal: Nick Daicos (Collingwood)
Coleman Medal: Charlie Curnow (Carlton)
KELLI UNDERWOOD
Top 8 changes: Adelaide and Western Bulldogs IN, Melbourne and St Kilda OUT
Premiers: Sydney Swans. “No Bud, but Brodie will use the fire in his belly to propel the Swans to their first flag in twelve years.”
Runner-up: Brisbane Lions
Wooden spoon: West Coast Eagles
Brownlow Medal: Errol Gulden (Sydney Swans)
Coleman Medal: Aaron Naughton (Western Bulldogs)
BEN WATERWORTH
Top 8 changes: Western Bulldogs IN, Sydney Swans OUT
Premiers: Brisbane Lions
Runner-up: Carlton
Wooden spoon: West Coast Eagles
Brownlow Medal: Tom Green (GWS Giants)
Coleman Medal: Charlie Curnow (Carlton)
DAVID ZITA
Top 8 changes: Adelaide and Western Bulldogs IN, St Kilda and Sydney OUT
Premiers: Brisbane Lions
Runner-up: Carlton
Wooden spoon: West Coast Eagles
Brownlow Medal: Tom Green (GWS Giants)
Coleman Medal: Jamarra Ugle-Hagan (Western Bulldogs)
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