AFL 2024 Power Rankings after Round 1, every club ranked, analysis, ladder, predictions, top eight, latest news – MASHAHER

Welcome back to the Power Rankings.

Reversals in rematches of last year’s preliminary finals have shaken up the top four before Round 1 even begins – so let’s see where everyone sits before the season proper.

What are the Power Rankings? This is our attempt to rank every AFL club from best to worst. We take wins and losses into account, but also the quality of opposition faced and whether teams are likely to get healthier or improve going forward. It’s a little bit ‘who’s hot and who’s not’; part predictive, part analysis of what’s happened. If Team A is above Team B, we’d probably tip A to win if they were playing at a neutral venue this weekend.

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All times AEDT.

1. GWS GIANTS (1-0, 139%)

Last week: Ranked 3rd, def Collingwood by 32 pts

Using the Ric Flair Corollary – to be the man, you’ve got to beat the man – the Giants earn top spot in the rankings heading into Round 1. It’s not like it was shocking that they beat Collingwood, and the combination of their incredible accuracy and the Pies’ inaccuracy meant the scoreline wasn’t truly reflective of the flow of play. But you could see every reason why GWS was a popular Grand Final tip coming into the season, from their exciting young talent across the ground, to their brilliant ball movement, to their miserly key defenders. And, as we wrote about last week, they were always going to start the season well given their draw. There’s a very real chance they’re 5-0, beating North, West Coast, Gold Coast (in Adelaide) and St Kilda (in Canberra), before a tricky stretch against the Blues, Lions and Swans. And if they’re not losing games, it’s hard to see how they’d lose top spot in our rankings, right?

Next game: North Melbourne at Engie Stadium, Saturday 4:35pm

2. COLLINGWOOD (0-1, 71.9%)

Last week: Ranked 1st, lost to GWS by 32 pts

We’re not worried. On a basic level, losing to a team away when you only beat them by a point at home last time you played isn’t a shock; and as we saw on Friday night too, preliminary final ‘revenge’ isn’t uncommon. But more to the point the Magpies were, for once, unlucky with how the game played out. The scoreline was completely out of whack with how the game actually played out because the Giants were wildly accurate and the Pies were the opposite – it’s worth noting the Pies were really accurate in 2023 and their opponents were generally inaccurate. On expected score the Pies actually won the game by 16 points, and a 48-point swing from the expected margin to the real one is historically large. Obviously that’s not a totally fair reflection of things, because the Pies kicked a few late goals in garbage time, but Champion Data’s Daniel Hoyne went as far to suggest if they played that game 10 times the premiers would’ve won seven of them. If they’re 0-2 we may start to worry a tiny bit – but not yet. It’s just one game.

Next game: Sydney Swans at the MCG, Friday 7:40pm

3. CARLTON (1-0, 101.2%)

Last week: Ranked 4th, def Brisbane by 1 pt

Congratulations Carlton on the Simpsons haunted yoghurt of victories. They trailed by 46 points – that’s bad. They still won – that’s good! Sam Docherty is done for the year – that’s bad. Jack Carroll looks like a gem – that’s good! They were way more accurate than usual while making their comeback, which means it’s a bit harder to believe in it being a real reflection of how well they were playing, and on expected score they should’ve lost by three goals – that’s bad. But they were actually scoring from turnovers, which was their big flaw last year, and even if being overly accurate means the numbers were inflated they still managed to create a huge number of chances from a source that most true premiership contenders dominate from – that’s good! Also, the toppings contain potassium benzoate.

Next game: Richmond at the MCG, Thursday 7:30pm

4. BRISBANE LIONS (0-1, 98.8%)

Last week: Ranked 2nd, lost to Carlton by 1 pt

As discussed in the Carlton capsule, the result was slightly unfair on the Lions, as their opponents were three goals worse on expected score – but you can also summarise that as the Blues just took their chances in key moments, and you can’t completely wave that off as statistical noise or luck. To put it simply there’s no reason a team should ever give up a 46-point lead; combined, losing a game they absolutely should’ve won at home and losing Kiddy Coleman for the year are a damaging blow, especially with how tight we’re expecting things to be at the top. By itself Opening Round could’ve cost them a home qualifying final and the cleanest path to another flag decider. The good news is they’ve got plenty of time to make amends and they’ve still got too much talent to fall from the top bracket of contenders.

Next game: Fremantle at Optus Stadium, Sunday 6:50pm

5. SYDNEY SWANS (1-0, 134.4%)

Last week: Ranked 8th, def Melbourne by 22 pts

We always knew there was a risk putting Sydney out of our predicted top eight, and it was the last switch we made (for what it’s worth taking Collingwood out was our last switch in 2023… maybe we should just stop making late changes). But now it’s hard to see the Swans getting off to a bad start, even if they don’t knock off the Pies on Friday night, with the Bombers, Tigers, Eagles, Suns and Hawks to come afterwards – sitting 5-2 or 6-1 at the end of April seems very realistic. Isaac Heeney showed just how valuable he is by swinging into the midfield and being spectacular, but he probably has to go back out once the Swans get healthy again, because he’s also their best forward option among that group – you’re not putting Taylor Adams at half-forward, for example, since that role is why he left Collingwood. It’s a nice problem to have. Oh and it turns out Brodie Grundy is still alright at footy?? Weird!

Next game: Collingwood at the MCG, Friday 7:40pm

6. MELBOURNE (0-1, 74.4%)

Last week: Ranked 5th, lost to Sydney by 22 pts

If the conditions weren’t worse than a wet weather game, as Christian Petracca said on AFL 360 on Tuesday night, maybe their midfield wouldn’t have been so outclassed by an injury-stricken Swans side last Thursday night. Broadly speaking we’re not too concerned about losing to a clearly-at-least-good Sydney team at home, especially when the Demons were missing two of their three most important forwards in Kozzie Pickett and Harry Petty (though it speaks to the weirdness of their list that Petty is already in that group). But again, this season looks likely to be really close, and it’s those losses to teams in their similar range than can prove costly later in the year. You can’t really have a must-win game in Round 1, but at the same time, being 0-2 with a next month of Hawthorn (always more dangerous than the ladder suggests), Port Adelaide away, Adelaide away and Brisbane sounds like a whole lot of pressure being placed upon this club.

Next game: Western Bulldogs at the MCG, Sunday 1pm

7. PORT ADELAIDE

Last year: Semi final loss, 17-6, 112.7%

The Power had the fake ‘bye week’ during Opening Round. Here’s what we wrote last time.

Safe to say Ken Hinkley would’ve preferred it if the Power had actually won a final last year, but there is one silver lining to their straight sets exit – there aren’t massive, top-four expectations around the Power heading into 2024. They’re expected to be in the finals mix, for sure, but they should be allowed to ease their way into the season with very winnable games against West Coast and Richmond as they work things out with their new-look back six. Heck, throw in three consecutive home games after that against Melbourne, Essendon and Fremantle, and the Power can very realistically hope to be 4-1 and well-positioned heading into the thrust of the season proper.

Next game: West Coast Eagles at Adelaide Oval, Sunday 4pm

8. ADELAIDE CROWS

Last year: 10th, 11-12, 116.8%

The Crows had the fake ‘bye week’ during Opening Round. Here’s what we wrote last time.

We have placed the Crows in the eight because they might’ve actually won an elimination final last year, while St Kilda did not, and they should have had the chance. The hope is that 2023 isn’t made even more painful by a disappointing 2024, because while there is plenty of hype around Matthew Nicks’ men (and we’re buying into it), there’s every chance they take a little step backwards too. Riley Thilthorpe being hurt early in a big year for his future prospects isn’t great; the defensive personnel issues are even worse. You would expect a young, developing team to keep getting better together but then that’s also what everyone expected of Fremantle last year, and they fell back dramatically. The downside risk is there for the Crows, even if the upside is a top-four tilt and fringe flag contention.

Next game: Gold Coast Suns at People First Stadium, Saturday 8:10pm

9. ST KILDA

Last year: Elimination final loss, 13-10, 107.8%

The Saints had the fake ‘bye week’ during Opening Round. Here’s what we wrote last time.

We’re more optimistic than most about the Saints in 2024 – which is weird given how much we absolutely despised them and conspired against them in 2023, as Saints fans still reading this article will remember. But we still need to see it to fully believe it, and much like most predicted ladders, the Saints are out of this eight almost by default. Only six of Fox Footy’s 21 tipsters backed them to play finals this year, fewer votes than Adelaide or the Western Bulldogs got. Safe to say their defensive absences, with Jack Sinclair, Jimmy Webster and Dougal Howard all sidelined early in the season, haven’t helped our belief. When you consider those issues heading into a trip to the Cattery followed by a blockbuster Round 2 clash with Collingwood, an 0-2 start is well and truly on the cards.

Next game: Geelong at GMHBA Stadium, Saturday 7:30pm

10. WESTERN BULLDOGS

Last year: 9th, 12-11, 108.7%

The Bulldogs had the fake ‘bye week’ during Opening Round. Here’s what we wrote last time.

We have no idea what to make of the Bulldogs heading into 2024 and we suspect we won’t know what to make of them after 2024, either. If you wanted to tell us they’ll pull it all together, with Ryley Sanders winning the Rising Star plus Jamarra Ugle-Hagan and Aaron Naughton becoming the best forward pairing in the comp on route to a top-four finish, that wouldn’t shock us. If you wanted to tell us they’ll just be bang-average again, losing games they shouldn’t at crucial times of their season, that wouldn’t shock us either. If you wanted to tell us they’ll be terrible… no, that would actually shock us, that doesn’t make sense. You get the point though – they’re predictably unpredictable.

Next game: Melbourne at the MCG, Sunday 1pm

11. GEELONG

Last year: 12th, 10-12-1, 112.6%

The Cats had the fake ‘bye week’ during Opening Round. Here’s what we wrote last time.

Heading into 2024 and looking back at 2023’s final results can be misleading, because the ladder was way closer than everyone remembers. Compare Carlton, a reigning preliminary finalist, to Geelong, who finished 12th – heading into Round 23 last year, the Cats actually had a better percentage while having won just two fewer games. The AFL’s middle class was simply enormous last year and when everything went right for those within it, like the Blues (who finished 5th) and Giants (7th), they were good enough to reach the last four. So this is why we can easily foresee Geelong bouncing back into the top eight in 2024; it’s just not that far for them to climb, and now they have the draw of a team that nearly finished in the bottom six, rather than the premiers.

Next game: St Kilda at GMHBA Stadium, Saturday 7:30pm

12. GOLD COAST SUNS (1-0, 165%)

Last week: Ranked 14th, def Richmond by 39 pts

It may turn out the Tigers are even worse than some suspected, and a six/seven-goal win at home is a par result, but it’s hard not to have more confidence in the Suns after how good they looked especially in the first half against Richmond. It wasn’t just the scoreline but the clear change in game style under Damien Hardwick, which they seemed to take on board quite well. The Crows should be a much tougher test so we’d be even more encouraged with a win this Saturday night; at worst, well, at least they’re top of the ladder for the first time ever.

Next game: Adelaide Crows at People First Stadium, Saturday 8:10pm

13. ESSENDON

Last year: 11th, 11-12, 89.7%

The Bombers had the fake ‘bye week’ during Opening Round. Here’s what we wrote last time.

The last time the Bombers went on a free agency spending spree, we remember there being a lot of hype around them – an expectation that the 2017 class of Adam Saad, Devon Smith and Jake Stringer would push them over the top. Instead they went from 12-10… to 12-10… and then 12-10 again. They still haven’t won more than 12 games since 2013. This time there isn’t quite as much hype, with Essendon shopping successfully in the off-season seemingly because they had the biggest budget, more than anything. They were also picking distressed goods off the shelf – for example, no-one outside of Tullamarine loved Ben McKay at his price (even though they’ll have front-loaded the deal in a way that gives them flexibility in the future). Maybe this is a good thing, though, because if there’s anything Essendon would love to avoid it’s being off-season premiers but in-season non-finalists… again. They have to beat Hawthorn this weekend because the ensuing six games after Round 1 are bloody tough, and 0-7 would be on the table.

Next game: Hawthorn at the MCG, Saturday 1:45pm

14. FREMANTLE

Last year: 14th, 10-13, 96.7%

The Dockers had the fake ‘bye week’ during Opening Round. Here’s what we wrote last time.

We haven’t really been too worried about Fremantle this off-season – we’re not expecting great things but we also don’t feel like they absolutely have to contend in 2024, because they’re still so young. However we did get a bit concerned hearing Jon Ralph’s reporting from On the Couch, which had some worrying details about some players getting frustrated with both coach Justin Longmuir and other members of the playing group. It’s not so much the details themselves, because of course in any workplace there are going to be people who don’t get along, but the fact that the details got out. There is still enough talent on this list to believe in the Dockers recovering to something near the 2022 version that nearly made the top four – but we haven’t seen many believers outside of WA.

Next game: Brisbane Lions at Optus Stadium, Sunday 6:50pm

15. RICHMOND (0-1, 60.6%)

Last week: Ranked 15th, lost to Gold Coast by 39 pts

Ah. Well, then, that was the reason for all the pessimism. At least the Tigers showed they still have the willingness to fight, threatening what would’ve been the second-biggest comeback in AFL history, but really the story of Saturday’s loss was written by halftime. They were horrendous in the opening two quarters, with their leaders exposed multiple times, and while they weren’t at full strength it was still incredibly discouraging for anyone (like us) who thought they’d be reasonably competitive while still rebuilding. On the plus side now if they somehow upset Carlton, it’ll make Blues fans even angrier?

Next game: Carlton at the MCG, Thursday 7:30pm

16. HAWTHORN

Last year: 16th, 7-16, 80.2%

The Hawks had the fake ‘bye week’ during Opening Round. Here’s what we wrote last time.

There was quite a lot of hype building around the Hawks as a dark horse over the summer, with some even going so far as to suggest they could push for a spot at the bottom of the eight. It always seemed a year early to us and their cursed run of pre-season injuries, combined with a tricky opening month against the Bombers, Demons, Cats and Magpies should ensure they start slowly. From there it’d be a bit of a miracle for them to actually turn into a contender, but at the same time, we shouldn’t be comparing them against that bar. They’re ahead of schedule in this rebuild but they’re not THAT far ahead; we know Hawks fans are used to a certain level of success thanks to the last decade but 2024 still seems like a year where they need to focus on enjoying the moments, and the exciting upsets when they come (and they will), and keep looking down the road.

Next game: Essendon at the MCG, Saturday 1:45pm

17. NORTH MELBOURNE

Last year: 17th, 3-20, 71.5%

The Kangaroos had the fake ‘bye week’ during Opening Round. Here’s what we wrote last time.

We’re pretty sure they won’t be repeating their magical 2023 start in 2024, given how good the Giants looked against Collingwood, so the question is really how different they feel. In the pre-season the Kangaroos showed flashes of a more exciting attacking game style, and while there are still plenty of holes in their best 23, in every area of the ground there’s at least one or two young guns to get excited about. We know North fans want more than another bottom-two season featuring just flashes of future promise, but this is where the slow beginning of this rebuild is really hurting them, because they’re still at least a year or two away from finals contention.

Next game: GWS Giants at Engie Stadium, Saturday 4:35pm

18. WEST COAST EAGLES

Last year: 18th, 3-20, 53%

The Eagles had the fake ‘bye week’ during Opening Round. Here’s what we wrote last time.

Weirdly the Eagles could be both better and worse this year. Better, because they’re not gonna be Fitzroy again and have a percentage in the low 50s – that’s almost impossible to do once, never mind twice. But also worse, because they’re only getting younger and less experienced as an overall list. They need to eat their vegetables because they refused to try and accelerate the rebuild earlier this decade, and the cost of that is a North-style half-decade in the dumps. West Coast shouldn’t take quite that long to recover because they’re historically a much stronger club but there’s a lot of work to do.

Next game: Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval, Sunday 4pm