The BJP needs to secure strongholds while focusing on challenging regions, including the eastern and southern states, to achieve Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s 400-seat dream for the NDA in the Lok Sabha polls, psephologists and poll experts said at India Today Conclave 2024.
The poll experts said while PM Modi’s ‘Ab Ki Baar 400 paar’ target was achievable, the NDA would face a tough fight from regional parties.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi has set a target of 370 seats for the BJP and over 400 seats for the NDA in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls.
‘BJP NEED TO MAINTAIN STRIKE RATES IN STRONGHOLDS’
Speaking on “Who Will Win the 2024 Election?” on the first day of the conclave, Pradeep Gupta, chairperson of Axis My India, emphasised that the BJP would need to maintain their strike rates in stronghold states while ensuring victory in other regions.
He categorised the states into three major groups based on the BJP’s previous electoral performance.
In the first group, consisting of Maharashtra, Bihar, and Karnataka, where the BJP won around 90% of seats in the last Lok Sabha elections, the party needs to replicate the performance, Gupta said.
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However, Gupta noted that the situation had changed with the emergence of the INDIA alliance and the defeat of the BJP in Karnataka in the 2023 Assembly polls.
The Axis My India chief put Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal in the second group, where the BJP secured 60 percent of votes in the previous election. He said in these states, the BJP would need to improve its performance and achieve an 80% strike rate.
The third group of states, such as Tamil Nadu and Punjab, where the BJP had allies in the previous election, poses the stiffest challenge.
‘BJP LIKELY TO FACE TOUGH FIGHT IN EAST AND SOUTH’
Election strategist Amitab Tiwari noted that PM Modi’s 400-seat target was achievable with the “regain, attain, maintain” mantra.
He said that the BJP was likely to face a tough fight in the eastern and southern states.
Among the A-B-C states, categorised as per the BJP’s performance, the party is safer in the A category, where they have won either three or two out of every three seats in the previous two elections.
“The A category has 262 seats, and more than half of them are in the northern belt, making them safer for the BJP. So, they have to focus on other regions to cross the 400 mark,” Tiwari said.
The ‘B category’ states have 82 seats, with half of them in the eastern region — Odisha and West Bengal, where the party is poised for a tight fight, he noted.
Coming to the C category of 199 seats, half of them, 98, are from the South, while the other 61 are in the eastern region. “These are the weak regions for the BJP, which may hinder its 400-seat march,” Tiwari said.
Yashwant Deshmukh, director of C-Voter, predicted that the BJP was likely to face tough battles from regional parties rather than Congress candidates in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections.
Deshmukh highlighted that in 100 of the 543 seats where the BJP had a vote share of less than 10% in 2014, it was unlikely to convert into seats, although there may be some exceptions.
In 200 seats where the contest is primarily between the BJP and Congress, the vote share gap in 2014 was just above 20 per cent. It increased to 25 per cent in 2019. The BJP won 180 of the 200 seats in 2019.
Deshmukh noted that the BJP’s vote share in some of these seats was between 50-60% and the saffron party may secure around 190 seats this time.
He stressed the importance of the third block of 243 seats, where the fight is between the BJP and regional parties.
Deshmukh also asserted that in the seats where Congress is the opposition, there is a higher possibility for the BJP to win, especially in states like Bihar and Maharashtra. He also underscored that West Bengal would see a fierce fight for each seat.
‘WINNER DECIDED EVEN BEFORE POLL DATES’
BJP Rajya Sabha MP Narasimha Rao predicted a clean sweep for the Narendra Modi-led BJP government, asserting that the winner had been decided even before the announcement of election dates. He said the opposition was decimated well before the election.
“We won 303 last time, it will be 404 this time,” he said.
Emphasising that the BJP’s focus was on the 2047 ‘Viksit Bharat’ dream, Rao said it went beyond merely fighting the election.
He also touched upon opposition leaders switching to the BJP just ahead of the Lok Sabha polls, attributing it to the allure of the saffron camp for those seeking a political future.
Source Agencies
