WARSAW (Reuters) – Poland holds local elections on Sunday, in what will be the first ballot box test for the parties comprising Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s pro-European coalition government since they ended nearly a decade of nationalist rule late last year.
The three groupings that form the coalition are running on separate tickets, and analysts say the results that emerge from a campaign in which national issues such as abortion rights have loomed large will have ramifications for the balance of power in the government.
Tusk swept to power following a national election in October on promises to reverse democratic backsliding, boost the rights of women and minorities and repair ties with Poland’s Western allies that had become strained under the previous government.
Brussels is closely watching how Tusk’s coalition fares as it braces for European Parliament elections in June. Europe-wide opinion polls suggest the populist right will perform well.
Tusk’s government has succeeded in unblocking billions of euros in European Union funds that had been frozen over rule-of-law concerns and has also launched sweeping reforms of the courts and state media.
However, it faces questions over the legality of some of its reforms, particularly those concerning the media, and criticism for not fulfilling a host of promises made before the election.
Tusk says it is clear what is at stake on Sunday.
“(The local elections) will be exactly as important as those of Oct. 15,” he told a rally in the southern city of Krakow. “If we do not win these elections, the trend may reverse.”
Polls show a tight race between Tusk’s Civic Coalition (KO) and nationalist opposition party Law and Justice (PiS) for first place. A second round of voting in mayoral races will be held on April 21.
PiS came first in October’s parliamentary election but lost its parliamentary majority. Analysts say that if KO comes out on top this time it will cement the party’s position as a dominant force, both in the country and within the government.
“The results of these elections will affect the balance of power within the ruling coalition… in terms of the staffing of various ministries, the political direction and so on,” said Rafal Chwedoruk, a political scientist at Warsaw University.
ABORTION
Divisions in the coalition have played out in the election campaign, particularly regarding the abortion issue.
Parliament speaker Szymon Holownia angered many left-leaning Poles who support the ruling coalition of which his Catholic conservative Third Way alliance is part when he delayed a debate on liberalising abortion laws till after Sunday’s elections.
“We should use our vote so that later… we will really have power over our own body,” Paulina Langner-Bentkowska, a 28-year-old wedding planner, told Reuters at a Warsaw shopping centre.
These are sentiments which the Left, also part of the government, has sought to harness in a campaign that has focused heavily on women’s rights.
“It is certainly true that in these local elections, what is happening at the central level is very much mixed with what is happening at the local level, also due to Speaker Holownia’s resistance to proceeding with bills about abortion,” said Magdalena Biejat, the Left’s candidate for Warsaw mayor.
For PiS, the elections are also a key test for a party still coming to terms with losing power.
Facing an uphill battle in the liberal-leaning capital, PiS candidate for Warsaw mayor Tobiasz Bochenski told Reuters he was targeting voters who wanted to see “dynamic development” in the city and who weren’t engaged in “ideological disputes”.
PiS and its allies have a long history of factional conflict but they have become particularly intense of late as politicians from the arch-conservative Sovereign Poland, a junior partner in government from 2015 to 2023, and lawmakers close to former prime minister Mateusz Morawiecki clash over his record.
Even the authority of 74-year-old party leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski – has been questioned by some PiS members suggesting it is time for the younger generation to take the reins. But analysts played down speculation about the party disintegrating.
“There are still seven million voters who went out and voted for PiS (last October), so talk about its death is premature,” said Anna Materska-Sosnowska, a political scientist at Warsaw University.
(Reporting by Alan Charlish, Anna Wlodarczak-Semczuk, Justyna Pawlak, Pawel Florkiewicz; Editing by Gareth Jones)
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