Analysis, reaction, results, wrap, highlights, Adelaide Crows problems, draft misses, Geelong lucky to be 4-0 – MASHAHER

Pretty much everything went to plan in Gather Round, with the favourites getting the job done, but that doesn’t mean everything was normal.

It runs the gamut from Adelaide’s draft hole sparking a huge problem, to the issue with Geelong’s unbeaten start and much more.

The big issues from Round 4, aka Gather Round, of the 2024 AFL season analysed in Talking Points!

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‘WALKING ON EGGSHELLS’: CROWS CONCERNS AS DRAFT MISSES LEAVE ‘BLACK HOLE’

Did we overrate Adelaide’s list coming into 2024?

The Crows’ winless start to the season continued in a loss to Melbourne to open Gather Round to heap more pressure on Matthew Nicks and company.

It’s a fair contrast from this time last year when Adelaide made a statement win over Carlton to open Gather Round as part of a mighty promising season from the Crows, who got within a kick of eventual premier Collingwood in both meetings and were one of the highest-scoring teams and most scintillating in the competition.

Of course, the Crows only narrowly fell short of the 2023 finals, while some believe they were robbed of a post-season appearance after that controversial Ben Keays point.

The general view was that the arrow was pointing up for Adelaide after a steady rebuild under Nicks and that the club would go from strength to strength in 2024 and play finals.

But they currently find themselves at the other end of the spectrum, sitting in the bottom four as one of four teams yet to register a win – joining Hawthorn, North Melbourne and West Coast, the teams everyone expected to be down the bottom.

It’s worth noting that just six teams in VFL/AFL history have played finals after an 0-4 start, and just one since the mid-1970s. That was 2017’s Sydney, who were coming off a Grand Final and were clearly one of the AFL’s best teams. The Crows… are not.

It shines a light on whether, through those rebuilding years, the Crows nailed their high-end draft picks and have acquired the necessary talent to lead them to success.

Kangaroos legend David King was critical of the club’s recruiting at the draft table and quality of its young talent – an area he thinks it’s been exposed with Adelaide’s senior stars out of form.

“(Adelaide is) in real trouble, absolutely. Their recruiting over the last decade has recruited a black hole,“ King said on SEN.

“There’s a significant void of talent on this list.

“Lucky, they got (Izak) Rankine and lucky they got (Jordan) Dawson, imagine if they didn’t have those two? What would it look like? “I called them vanilla, and I still think they’re vanilla.”

As King alluded to, the Crows have recruited well in trade in free agency by adding the likes of Rankine and Dawson, with the club’s top-line guns arguably as good as any in the competition.

But below that crop, there’s question marks and even uncertainty around their former first-round picks.

ADELAIDE’S FIRST ROUND PICKS (since 2016)

Jordan Gallucci, Pick 15 in 2016 (no longer at club)

Darcy Fogarty, Pick 12 in 2017

Chayce Jones, Pick 9 in 2018

Ned McHenry, Pick 16 in 2018

Fischer McAsey, Pick 6 in 2019 (no longer at club)

Riley Thilthorpe, Pick 2 in 2020

Luke Pedlar, Pick 11 in 2020

Josh Rachele, Pick 6 in 2021

Max Michalanney, Pick 17 in 2022

Dan Curtin, Pick 8 in 2023

Only one player they have drafted in this period, Lachlan Murphy, has played 100 AFL games.

Granted, most of those first-rounders have shown at least some promise, but it’s hard to pinpoint exactly which are the bona fide stars who will carry the torch at West Lakes into the future, while there’s even speculation Curtin could eventually seek a move back to Western Australia.

It’s particularly bad when you consider the South Australians they could’ve picked in recent drafts who ended up at Melbourne – Kozzie Pickett (2019, taken after McAsey), Tom Sparrow (2018, taken after Jones and McHenry), Kade Chandler (2018 rookie), Harry Petty (2017, taken after Fogarty) and even back to Alex Neal-Bullen in 2014.

Herald Sun reporter Jon Ralph meanwhile confirmed on Fox Footy the Crows are “very well aware they need to improve their list,” revealing club footy boss Adam Kelly said its first-round pick this year and next year are “absolutely” available.

“We will be active. Whatever we can do to go after A-grade talent, we’re interested,” Kelly told Fox Footy.

While Demons swingman Petty has been linked to a move to the Crows to return to South Australia, he’s now reportedly expected to stay at Melbourne.

Despite this, Ralph said the Crows “will be casting their net far and wide for elite talent to improve this list instantly.”

Crows legend Eddie Betts admitted it’s been “frustrating” seeing his former club underwhelm so much in the early parts of 2024 in a season fast getting away from it.

“When you’re not winning, it’s so hard to find confidence and trust within a group. I’ve been at the club when we won basically every game, you put on the Adelaide jumper and just knew what you were going to get from your teammates,“ Betts told foxfooty.com.au.

“Watching them now, they’re doubting themselves and hoping. Hope’s not going to get you anywhere. You’ve got to trust and believe you’re going to get it done.

“At 0-4, you start walking around on eggshells when a footy club is supposed to be your second home. History shows if you start like this, you can’t really come back from it.

“I know it’s only four rounds in, but that’s the way it’s looking. It’s tough for an unbelievable supporter base – they’re passionate and love their club, they just want to see their side play with the same passion as last year.

“When you’re not playing well, the pressure builds. Living in Adelaide, this city can either love you or eat you up. It’s eating them up at the moment.”

As for Rachele and Rankine, who’ve been below their best after last year lighting up Adelaide Oval in a similar vein to Betts during his glory days, the Indigenous legend implored the duo to stay engaged in games across four quarters to keep the crowd involved.

“Small forward is one of the hardest positions to play. You can have a down game, but have big moments as well. How you get out of that slump and don’t let it linger for a whole game is key,“ Betts said.

“They both bring people to the Adelaide Oval and put bums on seats – they want to entertain.

“I always say, it’s like Gladiator – you win your crowd, you win your freedom. The louder the crowd is at Adelaide Oval, the better the team plays. It boosts the environment.”

PROBLEM WITH UNBEATEN CATS THAT EVEN THEY KNOW ABOUT

The gaps between glory and failure are very small; and after a 2023 season filled with bad luck, the Cats are finally having things go their way.

Another tremendous goalkicking performance got them over the line on Saturday night against the Western Bulldogs, leaving Geelong 4-0 after the opening month of the season.

Yet it’s still tough to tell exactly how good the 2022 premiers are, with their wins coming against an up-and-down St Kilda, a worse-than-expected Adelaide, a still-rebuilding Hawthorn and now those Dogs, who wasted a pair of incredible performances from Marcus Bontempelli and Tom Liberatore (as they often do).

“(Our) start hasn’t surprised me, but if we had lost a couple of close games and been 1-3 that wouldn’t have surprised me that much either … I’ve just got too much respect for the competition,” coach Chris Scott said in his post-match press conference.

“I look around and the ‘easy’ games are not there to my eye.”

He added: “We’ve gone in optimistic based on our preparation, and it wasn’t by design.

“We’d love to have (Cam) Guthrie and (Patrick) Dangerfield in there but I’ll be clear, ‘It hasn’t surprised me but it was hard to predict exactly how well the combination of Jhye Clark, Tanner Bruhn, Jack Bowes and Ollie Dempsey – all those guys coming through – were going to go’.

“We feel a bit better about now because we’re 4-0, but we’ve got to be a little bit careful that we don’t get carried away because we haven’t really blown anyone away.

“We’ve been good enough to win but the competition just gets harder.

“But the signs are good.”

He’s right, particularly in the sense that they’ve banked the wins. The last six times Geelong started a season 4-0, they went on to finish in the top four, twice on route to a premiership. With how good they typically are at GMHBA Stadium, usually winning at least seven games, it’d be pretty surprising if they fell apart and missed the finals from here.

They were also very mature in how they held onto the lead late against the Bulldogs; when Rhys Stanley is doing smart things and nailing under-pressure kicks, you know things are going your way.

But it’s worth examining exactly how they got to 4-0, because there’s been quite a bit of good fortune.

In Round 1, both the Cats and Saints were very inaccurate. The final score 76-68 was fairly reflective of the game, but the expected score of 102-91 shows if just one side had kicked straight, they would’ve run away with it. So Geelong easily could’ve lost, if St Kilda hadn’t been just as bad as them.

In Round 2, Geelong found its kicking boots but Adelaide lost theirs. This was a straightforward expected score game; the Cats were two goals better than they should’ve been, the Crows were two goals worse than the should’ve been, and an expected 89-83 Adelaide margin turned into 96-77 Geelong. So Geelong easily could’ve, and maybe should’ve, lost.

In Round 3, Geelong deserved the win, but it was nothing like the six-goal final margin over Hawthorn. The Hawks were bang-on expectation but the Cats kicked 17.4 – five goals better than expected. So had they kicked normally, the game would’ve at least been close.

In Round 4, well, we don’t have the official numbers yet. But the fan-run AFLxScore account usually gets it pretty close to the Champion Data figures, and they had the Bulldogs winning 93-83 on expected score, instead of losing 91-93. It’s safe to say Geelong easily could’ve, and maybe should’ve, lost.

So that’s where Chris Scott is also right – the Cats could’ve easily been 1-3.

Are they genuinely a contender again? They should be 5-0, given they’ve got North Melbourne at home next, before a tricky stretch against Brisbane (away), Carlton (MCG), Melbourne (MCG), Port Adelaide (home), Gold Coast (Darwin) and GWS (home). That’s where we’ll really find out.

‘OUTRAGEOUS’: ‘DAUNTING’ MIDFIELD THAT CAN CHALLENGE ALL-TIME AFL TRIOS

AFL fans have been treated to an array of superstar on-ball trios this century. Think Brisbane (Michael Voss, Simon Black and Jason Akermanis), Geelong (Gary Ablett, Jimmy Bartel and Joel Selwood) and West Coast (Chris Judd, Ben Cousins and Daniel Kerr) in particular.

But Port Adelaide’s midfield triumvirate of Connor Rozee, Zak Butters and Jason Horne-Francis can challenge the aforementioned across the next decade, according to triple premiership Lion Jonathan Brown.

“It’s daunting going forward. You think back to Cousins, Kerr, (Dean) Cox and Judd – these guys can challenge. They can start to push towards that over the next decade,” Brown told Fox Footy.

It comes after a stunning Rozee masterclass and a career-best game from Horne-Francis were central to Port Adelaide’s prolific 69-point Gather Round win over Essendon.

Along with Butters, the formidable midfield group sliced Essendon to ribbons as the Power won centre bounce clearances by +13 – their second-best return in he past five years – and scored 26 points from the source. Melbourne champion Garry Lyon told Fox Footy Port won centre clearance with “brutality”.

Rozee was particularly breathtaking booting 3.2 from 36 disposals, 16 contested possessions, seven inside 50s and five clearances.

“I’ve seen him play some pretty good games already, but not that good,” Power coach Ken Hinkley said post-game. “Not in the first half particularly.

“It was outrageous what he was doing. Great young captain.”

The class of Rozee caught the eye, but his flashes of brilliance came off the back of his sheer hard work and gut running.

“Off the back of Essendon applying pressure, he was relentless,” four-time premiership Hawk Jordan Lewis said of Rozee on Fox Footy.

“The movement around stoppages, he cannot be tackled – along with his two other mates in there. He’s such a poise player, a smart ball user but so dangerous when he’s on the move.”

Lyon said Rozee, who’s in his first season as Power captain, played with “good arrogance” against Essendon – and it “bled through the whole group”.

Horne-Francis, in particular, played inspired football, finishing with 31 disposals, 13 contested possessions, a whopping 10 clearances, seven score involvements, seven inside 50s and 624m gained.

“He’s a powerful player,” seven-time All-Australian Nathan Buckley told Fox Footy. “There’s not too many players in the competition with his short speed – the ability to take three or four steps from a standing start and put a gap on his direct opponent, let alone anyone else that’s looking to win the footy.

“He’s still very young, but he’d be the type of player that when you try to tackle him, it’d feel like tackling a barrel. He’s just really strong and hard to get a hold of because of his mass, core and hips.”

Butters, who’s probably been the most hyped of the star trio over the past few years, finished with 26 disposals, 12 contested possessions, seven tackles, seven score involvements and five clearances.

As Fox Footy pundits pointed out, all of Rozee, Horne-Francis and Butters can expose oppositions teams both on the inside and outside.

“We talk about the dynamic midfield and you try and recollect and think about other sides that have got three genuine players who are tough … with the combination of speed and the ability to make good decisions. You try and pick apart their game and where you can get the advantage, but when they’re on, good luck,” Lewis said.

Buckley added: “They’re not just good inside … all three of them in open play are prepared to take on the game and they have no fear of their ability to handle whatever pressure comes from the opposition and they’re going to be able to find the next best option.

“If you’ve got multiple midfielders who can play with that, you know you’re going to be able to find time and space and connect with teammates.”

And the scariest part of all? Rozee is only 24 years old, Butters is 23 and Horne-Francis is 20.

‘VERY RARELY SEE THIS’: CURIOUS BOMBERS POST-LOSS SIGHT AS LIST QUESTIONS EMERGE

As far as wake-up calls go, they don’t come much more jarring than the rude Gather Round awakening Essendon received at the hands of rampant Port Adelaide.

Brad Scott’s men would have been reasonably happy at quarter-time at Adelaide Oval on Friday night, blissfully unaware of the shock onslaught that was to come as the Connor Rozee-inspired Power stormed to a 69-point win.

The shellshocked Bombers conceded 10 of 11 goals scored at one stage and managed just 22 second-half points as Power trio Connor Rozee, Jason Horne-Francis and Zak Butters sliced them open in a midfield masterclass.

It came just six days after an inspired come-from-behind Bombers victory over St Kilda. And it further highlighted why the Bombers are a team “you can’t trust”, as Crows premiership captain Mark Bickley put it on SEN, due to their inconsistent on-field performances.

So the sight of Brad Scott deep in conversation with his fellow Essendon coaches in the coaches’ box immediately after Friday night’s loss was curious.

“You very rarely see this, coaches gather like this immediately after the game to, I think, unite the message and then what they would be looking to pass onto the players,” dual premiership Kangaroo David King told Fox Footy on Saturday.

“They’ve talked a lot Essendon – and it’s just not happening at the moment. They’ve talked standards, they’ve talked all sorts of things.

“That was a powwow that you don’t normally see at Round 4.”

Four-time premiership Hawk Jordan Lewis added: “They’re probably scratching their heads, like we were, after the game about what other levers they could pull.

“I think they made a lot of changes, whether it be tactical or physical, in the midfield. But they got windburn in the middle of the ground – and nothing could’ve stopped what Port Adelaide were doing.”

Scott fronted reporters minutes later.

“The end result looks like, probably, a lack of effort but in terms of the things that we tried to get on our terms, we lost momentum in some of the key areas of the game,” Scott said.

“In the end, it’s a good wake-up call for our guys.

“Sometimes it’s just a bit of a perfect storm; whatever we changed made it worse.

“You can be very clearly frustrated and disappointed, but you’ve got to learn your lesson and progress from there.”

Attention on Saturday then turned to the Bombers’ list composition.

The Bombers have had nine first-round picks since 2015: Darcy Parish, Aaron Francis, Andrew McGrath, Nik Cox, Archie Perkins, Zach Reid, Ben Hobbs, Elijah Tsatas and Nate Caddy. While it’s too early to assess the acquisitions of Tsatas and Caddy, you could argue Parish, Perkins and McGrath (just, considering the Pick 1 investment) are the only definitive ticks you’d be prepared to give out.

And remember the Bombers didn’t have a first-round pick in either the 2018 or 2019 drafts after trading aggressively with the GWS Giants.

“Eight top-10 picks, if you hit them that’s the core of your premiership team. They’re a mish mash in those picks,” broadcaster Gerard Whateley told SEN’s Crunch Time.

“None of those Essendon players can match what Port Adelaide have got,” she said on 3AW Football.

Veteran reporter Caroline Wilson told 3AW Football: “They do not have the cattle … They have had the wrong people, I reckon, in their recruiting and list management now for two decades. They’ve started to make changes – and about time.”

The Bombers face a tough three-week stretch against the Western Bulldogs, Adelaide (Adelaide Oval) and Collingwood. We’ll know a lot more about the state of play of Scott’s side by Anzac Day.