Scottie Scheffler proved he is the best golfer on the planet by winning the 88th Masters last weekend. Luckily for me, I was able to get in on Scheffler early in the futures market at +750, giving me my third outright win of 2024 and my second back-to-back.
If you’re looking for my bets, you can always click HERE to visit my X page, where I post every bet and all of my in-tournament action.
With the first Major behind us, it’s time to turn our attention to the thrilling RBC Heritage at Harbour Town Golf Links in Hilton Head Island, SC. This signature event boasts a formidable field, with nearly every PGA Tour member within the Top 50 participating this week, except Viktor Hovland and Hideki Matsuyama. The stage is set for some intense golf action, and I can’t wait to share my insights with you.
Harbour Town is a short, 7,213-yard par 71 Pete Dye-designed golf course with tight, tree-lined fairways. We can ditch our heavy driving distance weights and focus more on golfers who regularly hit fairways and are skilled with their wedges.
Much like Augusta National last week, course history at Harbour Town will be a vital part of the handicap used for the golfers this week. Here are the key stats I used in my primary model.
Key Metrics:
· Driving Distance
· Strokes Gained: Approach
· Proximity: 125-150
· SG: Par 4
· Birdie or Better Gained
· SG: Putting
· Course History
RBC Heritage Best Bets
Ludvig Aberg to Win +1200
Once every few years, a young, promising debutant finds themselves in contention on Sunday at the Masters. This year, that was Ludvig Aberg. The young Swedish phenom isn’t just some flash in the pan. Aberg has consistently been one of the best golfers this season.
He’s in the top 15 in almost every major statistical category, and his composure is far greater than his age suggests.
Much like Scheffler’s, Aberg’s game fits almost every golf course. He’s great off the tee, great with his irons, and consistently gains strokes on the putting surface.
A compelling stat that I mentioned in the build-up that continues to resonate is that there are only two golfers in the field who have gained at least 2+ to the field in over 55% of the matches they have played this season: Aberg and Scheffler.
He might enter this week with a bit of a Masters hangover, but I think his game is designed to weather the storm and have a great shot at winning.
Other Outright Bets: Cam Young +3300, Wyndham Clark +3300 0.5un
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Shane Lowry Top 20 (-105)
I played Shane Lowry Top 20 on a sportsbook that pays ties in full. You certainly can find better prices, but you risk losing money in the dead heat should he finish tied in a position.
I mentioned how vital course history is in this event. Lowry’s history is pretty strong at Harbour Town. He has three top-10 finishes, including two top-5 finishes in his last five trips here.
I have yet to reference a golfer’s standing in my model in the article, but it should be known that Lowry is third in the model.
Over the last 24 rounds, Lowry is first in the field from 125-150 yards. He’s in the top 10 in driving accuracy, SG: APP, BoB Gained, and SG: Par 4s.
Lowry is currently playing great golf, so playing him to finish in the top 20 is a no-brainer.
Other Placement Bets: Xander Schaffuele Top 10 (+100)
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