More than 2,600 seats are up for election in 107 English councils on Thursday.
Now, YouGov has made its final calls for some key contests using the MRP polling method after interviewing almost 9,000 people over two weeks.
Here, exclusively on Sky News, are the headlines. We’ll start with two key battlegrounds:
Labour HQ will be very happy that YouGov says they will go red.
Hyndburn is a red wall council that has proved sticky in recent council elections. Milton Keynes is also a great political bellwether – Labour needs to be doing well here in the general election.
Then there are races that are more of a toss-up – councils that might change hands but YouGov says the races are too close to make a firm prediction.
Norwich and Tamworth are two places where Labour looks like they’re building momentum in both councils, but it’s too close to call.
Winning Norwich would be pretty seismic for Labour, given it only has one target seat, Norwich North. To be doing well in a general election, Labour only needs not to be going backwards.
Reigate is an exceptional council – local difficulties and defections in recent years make it easier to win back.
YouGov says there will also be parties possibly losing control of councils.
Lib Dem control of Hull in Yorkshire and Tory control of Walsall in the West Midlands are both on the edge – and both are big contests.
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Hull in Yorkshire is where Labour is snapping at the Lib Dem’s heels. Lib Dems tell me they are worried but they’ve always just about held on in the past – it’s quite a rare head-to-head between these two.
Walsall really matters, not only because there’s a key general election seat here. But also because it’s where we will all be watching to see how much Reform UK – which is fielding candidates in 15 of the 20 wards – eats into the Tory vote and what impact that has.
Now, Thursday is not just about councils maybe changing hands. We want to know where voting patterns are changing significantly and who’s got momentum – and who hasn’t.
The big story of the night will be measuring Labour advances – and here’s where YouGov says that’s happening.
So that’s Labour momentum in the South – Milton Keynes and Thurrock; the East – Peterborough; the Midlands – Walsall – and the North.
North East Lincolnshire covers Grimsby and Cleethorpes where Sky has its target towns project, so you’re seeing lots of coverage of that race. Labour will be pleased with this – showing they’re competitive in the places they need.
And you can also see where Labour is also advancing – but YouGov says that advance is less strong.
Again, this list has areas from all around the country.
Top is Hyndburn – which you saw earlier may as a council fall Labour hands, but it’s doing so with more modest Labour momentum.
It’s a place – and places like it – that matter so much that Labour might want to be doing a bit better.
By contrast, Rugby and Tamworth are lower down the list Labour needs to worry about when they’re considering the general election. If Tories are losing there – it’s total wipe out.
Finally, here’s where YouGov projects Labour is not advancing – or where the Tories are doing okay.
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The big picture in several of these is there are more parties than Labour who benefit when the Tory vote declines, including the Lib Dems.
But little change in Colchester is a small warning bell for Labour – at the general election here they need to overturn a majority of 10,000. If this happens on the night, they’ll be asking why. And Reigate, which as we said before saw defections, is predicted to have some Tory gains.
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Much of the local elections will be dominated by the mayoral contests – the biggest names standing.
But big personalities can mean politics in these races looking very different to the rest of the country.
What happens in the council elections will be poured over in far more detail, particularly by Labour, desperate to write a story that ends up with them winning at the general election.
Source Agencies
