Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire Watch: Top pickups heading into Week 6 – MASHAHER

Welcome to Waiver Wire Watch, where we review the top fantasy baseball adds and drops for each week of the MLB season.

The premise is pretty straightforward. I’ll try to give you some recommended adds each week based on recent production or role changes. When I list a player, I’ll try to list the category where I think he’ll be helpful or the quick reason he’s listed. My hope is that it will help you to determine if the player is a fit for what your team needs or not.

For a player to qualify to be on this list, he needs to be UNDER 50% rostered in Yahoo formats. I understand you may say, “These players aren’t available in my league,” and I can’t help you there. These players are available in over 50% of leagues and some in 98% of leagues, so they’re available in many places and that can hopefully satisfy readers in all league types.

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We’ll start by just looking at the teams with the best overall schedule in the next week. It’s just a part of the equation but it’s good to know which hitters will face an easier road.

Hitters

Jo Adell – OF, LAA: 39% rostered
(POTENTIAL STARTING JOB, POWER UPSIDE)

I’ve had Adell in here for the past two weeks and with Mike Trout now out, I can’t see Adell leaving the Angels’ lineup anytime soon. In 25 games, he’s hitting .273 with four home runs and five steals. He has been caught stealing five times as well, which is not good, but it does mean he’s running an awful lot. He’s also cut his strikeout rate, is making more contact, and has lowered his swinging strike rate because he’s being a bit more selective in the zone. He’s still chasing out of the zone a decent amount, but he’s lowered his swinging strike rate over the last couple of weeks and started pulling the ball more. He’s certainly worth a gamble.

I also mentioned that you could also take a gamble in deeper leagues on Trevor Larnach – OF, MIN (3% rostered), who is still starting against all right-handers, even with Carlos Correa back, and is hitting .368 over 44 plate appearances with two home runs, nine runs scored, and eight RBI. He’s never made good on some prospect intrigue, but perhaps he can have a stretch as a solid regular here.

Junior Caminero – 3B, TB: 41% rostered
(PRIORITY STASH)

Junior Caminero is another repeat from the last two weeks and remains my favorite prospect stash if you have the bench space to do it. He suffered a quad injury that sidelined him at Triple-A and had a brief setback last week, but he’s back in action and hitting the ball well. When he’s on the field, Caminero looks like a player who could produce immediate fantasy value. The Rays aren’t getting much from their DH spot, and Brandon Lowe is now on the IL with an oblique injury. There’s a chance the Rays will give Caminero a few games to get his timing back and show that he’s fully healthy before giving him another shot at the big leagues.

I think you can also stash Coby Mayo – 3B, BAL (8% rostered) now that Jackson Holliday has been sent down. The Orioles won’t keep playing Ramon Urias in the infield, but they could move Jordan Westburg to 2B and allow Mayo to come up and play 3B. Another stash is Orelvis Martinez – 2B/3B/SS – TOR (8% rostered) who’s hitting .305 with three home runs and 11 RBI in 15 games at Triple-A for the Blue Jays. I can’t see Toronto continuing to run out Cavan Biggio and Isiah Kiner-Falefa every day, and Addison Barger isn’t the answer, so it seems only a matter of time before Orelvis gets a shot.

Mike Tauchman – OF, CHC: 22% rostered
(AVERAGE, RUNS, STARTING JOB)

I covered Tauchman in my article on hitters to add from my custom stat leaderboard, so please check that out. The gist was that he’s being a touch more aggressive overall, even swinging at more pitches outside of the strike zone, but he’s not really swinging and missing more so this seems like a controlled aggression that’s working for him. He’s also pulling the ball over 7% less than last year but is driving the ball into the gaps more because he’s using the whole field and making harder contact overall which has led to a major bump in his batting average, I think it’s safe to say the approach is working for him, even if it will not lead to much consistent value in home runs.

Vaughn Grissom – SS, BOS: 30% rostered
(HEALTH AND STARTING JOB)

Grissom is now back up in Boston and will be playing every day at second base shortly. The Red Sox had a planned off day for him on Saturday to ease him back into the big leagues, but that should only last another week or so before his name is in that lineup every day. He won’t hit for a ton of power, but he’ll likely sport a good batting average and give you some chip-in steals while hitting in a solid lineup. That’s a really good MIF option in most formats. I also think we could buy back in on Zach Neto – SS, LAA (12% rostered). I was big into Neto this year coming off his solid debut in 2023, but he stumbled out of the gate. He’s starting to right the ship while also stealing bases and could move up to the top third of the order in Los Angeles with Mike Trout out. Those are intriguing new developments.

Ceddanne Rafaela – SS/OF, BOS: 26% rostered
(SPEED, PLAYING TIME GUARANTEE)

I understood why people cut Rafaela in most leagues. He wasn’t hitting well for the Red Sox and his swing looked a little long. However, he now has dual position eligibility and the Red Sox need him in the line-up every day. Sometimes with prospects, it takes a little while to get your footing against MLB competition, but Rafaela has looked better of late, going 8-for-23 (.348) with seven RBI, one home run, and one steal over the last week. This is still probably more of a deep league add, but I think his profile is the type you take a gamble on in 15+ team leagues.

Connor Wong – C, BOS (29% rostered)
(HOT STREAK, POWER GAINS)

Wong is likely just on a heater right now, but the underlying numbers support his strong production. Not to the extent that he’s a .360 hitter, but to the extent that he can be a useful fantasy contributor. He currently has an 86% zone contact rate and just a 21% K% with a 7.3% barrel rate and a 40% Ideal Contact Rate. He’s hitting fewer groundballs and his swinging strike rate is way down. He can be a fringe option in a one-catcher league but needs to be rostered in all two-catcher formats.

There’s also Tyler Stephenson – C, CIN (10% rostered), who has a 20% barrel rate, 47% ICR, and exit velocity on flyballs and line drives of 95 mph, which is well above the league average. He’s also chasing less, swinging less overall, and making elite contact with a 92% zone contact rate and minuscule 6.6% SwStr%. We love to see that he’s pulling the ball more, but he’s hitting nearly 60% groundballs, which is less than ideal. If he can get that closer to his 49% career groundball rate, we could see a breakout coming for Stephenson.

Tyler Nevin – 1B/3B/OF, OAK: 38% rostered
(POWER, STARTING JOB, HOT STREAK)

Is this likely just a hot streak? Yes, but that doesn’t mean we should ignore it. Nevin is now playing every day in Oakland and hitting for both average and power. He never panned out in Detroit, but the Orioles are a smart organization and they took a gamble on Nevin this spring too. Of course, that didn’t work out either, but it does suggest that teams are interested in his raw tools. This could turn into a pumpkin at any moment, but it might be worth a gamble in the short term.

Tyler Black – MIL, 2B/3B: 23% rostered
(SPEED, POTENTIAL STARTING JOB)

Tyler Black is up and could be looking at a real chance to claim the 1B job in Milwaukee. He isn’t going to hit for the normal power of a first baseman, but he could hit 15 homers in Milwaukee, and he posted over 50 steals last year, so you’re going to get elite speed. He has also shown great plate discipline with high walk rates in the minors and the Brewers hit him fourth in the lineup right away in his first start. If you need power first, you might find it in other places, but for everything else, Black is a great add as a 1B/CI bat.

Luis Garcia – 2B, WAS: 13% rostered
(PLAYING TIME, POTENTIAL NEW LEVEL)

I’ve put Garcia on here every week, but he’s actually being rostered in FEWER leagues this week. He’s hitting .293 on the season with two home runs, 13 RBI, and five steals. Garcia is just 23 years old and showing his best exit velocities yet. He’s top-40 in baseball in barrels per plate appearance so far and has a 50% exit velocity of 101.8 mph, which means the average of the hardest 50% of balls he hits is 101.8 mph. That’s 54th in baseball. He’s also now hitting in the middle of the Nationals’ lineup. He’s not going to put up massive numbers, but he’s looking rock solid right now.

Joey Loperfido – HOU, OF: 33% rostered
(POWER/SPEED, PLAYING TIME OPPORTUNITY)

Loperfido is now up in Houston, so the window to stash him may close soon. While we have seen other rookies struggle this season, Loperfido is worth a gamble because he has tremendous power, but the contact could be an issue in the big leagues. He’s probably a .240 hitter right now, but he gets a boost in OPS and OBP formats and that power in Houston’s lineup could be enticing. One thing to keep an eye on is that Houston has played him in the outfield more than 1B so far since he’s been called up. If you’re counting on him to get 1B eligibility, it may take some time. I think you can also stash Kyle Mazardo – 1B, CLE (8% rostered) who’s hitting be on a real tear in Triple-A. The Guardians have Josh Naylor at 1B but one of him or Manzardo can slot in at DH to get both bats into the lineup. It feels like it’s only a matter of time.

Nick Senzel – 3B/OF, WAS: 12% rostered
(POWER GAINS, STARTING JOB)

I guess we’re doing this again. I can’t tell you how many times we’ve bought into Senzel’s upside before being burned by a cold stretch or an injury, so you certainly shouldn’t invest too heavily right now; however, you also shouldn’t ignore what he’s doing. Over the last two weeks, Senzel is 11-for-40 with five home runs, seven runs scored, and 10 RBI. He has a 13.2% barrel rate and has a more selectively aggressive approach. He’s chasing less out of the zone and also swinging less in the zone. When he swinging, he’s whiffing more and making his lowest amount of contact yet, but he’s clearly trying to do damage on that contact, lifting the ball more than ever before. He’s not pulling the ball much and that swinging strike rate isn’t ideal, so I’m not sure how long this lasts for, but I’m willing to take the gamble in deeper leagues.

Josh Rojas – 2B/3B, SEA: 6% rostered
(SPEED, NEW LINEUP SPOT)

I covered Rojas in my latest article on hitters to pick up. He’s sporting a career-high walk rate and a career-low strikeout rate. He’s chasing outside of the zone at a career-low rate, making contact at a career-high rate, and registering a career-best 7.7% SwStr%. All told, Rojas’ more selective approach this season has led to career-bests across the board. Since plate discipline metrics have long since started to stabilize, I think it’s pretty clear that we’re seeing a new approach from Rojas, and his .313 batting average and 9% barrel rate will give him no reason to change it. With J.P. Crawford out, he’s also been hitting leadoff, which gives him a little added boost. If you want another option, Vidal Brujan – 2B/3B, MIA: 4% rostered, could be worth an add now that he seems like the starting 2B for Miami with Luis Arraez now in San Diego. Brujan won’t give you too much power and the lineup limits his counting stats, but he has the wheels for 15+ steals and has posted solid batting averages in the minors.

Tommy Pham – OF, CHW: 5% rostered
(POWER/SPEED AND STARTING JOB)

Pham was called up by the White Sox last weekend and is starting every day. He’s 9-for-27 (.333) with six runs scored, a home run, and two RBI to start his time in Chicago. The lineup around him isn’t great, but he’s been hitting second and is coming off a season where he hit .256 with 16 home runs and 22 steals. That mix of power and speed will play in a lot of formats.

Matt Vierling – 3B/OF, DET: 2% rostered
(PLAYING TIME OPPORTUNITY, NEW APPROACH)

We’re seeing some great stuff from Vierling of late. He’s starting at 3B most games and hitting 5th in the order now. He’s chasing far less out of the zone but being way more aggressive in the zone while also cutting his swinging strike rate. He’s also clearly using that aggression to trend towards power, pulling the ball more and lifting it 10% more than last year. That’s led to a 9% barrel rate on the year. His home park isn’t great for power, and the walk rate has plummeted which will hurt his OPS and OBP, but the quality of contact has been really good.

Pitchers

Luis Gil – SP, NYY: 34% rostered

Luis Gil is impossible to trust but impossible to ignore. He has an arsenal that grades out well and a three-pitch mix that induces a lot of weak contact. He gets tons of swinging strikes on his fastball and slider, but the command overall is inconsistent. When he’s on, you’ll wish you started him against any offense, like against the Orioles this week.

It’s hard to let him sit on the wire given his talent. If you want to know the other starting pitchers who I think are above regular streamers, I like Clarke Schmidt – NYY: 41% rostered, Casey Mize – DET: 23% rostered, Reese Olson – DET: 20% rostered, Jose Soriano – LAA: (6% rostered), and Ben Lively – CLE: (17% rostered)

Jameson Taillon – SP, CHC: 38% rostered
I had been advocating for stashing Taillon for a couple of weeks, but he’s looked good since coming off the IL. He carved up the Brewers this weekend and I think he should be on rosters in most leagues, even if you have to sit him against the best offenses. I covered him as one of my deep league sleepers in the pre-season, so you can read that article to get a full sense of my thoughts on Taillon.

Chrisitan Scott – SP, NYM: 30% rostered
What a first start from Scott against an admittedly mediocre Rays offense. Scott’s poise is clear and I love his demeanor on the mound. His fastball has so much life and his sweeper and slider both have the potential to miss plenty of bats. I worry a little bit about his ability to handle lineups with tons of lefties, but not worried enough to not spend big on him this weekend.

Another potential rookie to add is Sam Robberse – SP, STL: 2% rostered, who I first learned about from reading Chris Clegg’s work. Robberse has a 1.77 ERA with 35 strikeouts to seven walks. Chris mentioned that Robberse reworked his arsenal to use his four-seam less and lead with his cutter, slider, and changeup. He should get a chance with Steven Matz sidelined.

Kenta Maeda – SP, DET: 24% rostered

I had Maeda on here last week after I noticed that his velocity was up in his start against the Rays. Well, his velocity was up again in his last start with good results again. He’s allowed one run over his last 11 innings while striking out 10. In deeper leagues, I’m taking the gamble against Cleveland this week. I guess you can also add John Means – SP, BAL: 36% rostered now that he’s off the IL. I’m really not a big fan, but I’m also not going to pretend like he wasn’t good on Saturday. He’s throwing his changeup harder and it missed a lot of bats against the Reds. I’m not sure if this will hold for him, but it might be worth grabbing him to see.

Check out my list of weekly streamers below.

STREAMING STARTER OPTIONS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK (ranked in loose order)

Last week I mentioned that I thought it was time to stash Bradley last week and he had another electric start at Triple-A this week, going six innings and allowing one run on two hits with two walks and eight strikeouts. There’s no indication of when he’ll be called back up to the big leagues, but I can’t see it being longer than one more minor league start. We’re not entirely sure what to expect from him, but we know the talent is there for him to be a difference-maker. I also think it’s time to stash his teammate Shane Baz – SP, TB: 24% rostered, who I discussed in this week’s Add/Drop video on YouTube.

Trevor Megill – RP, MIL (12% rostered)

As I mentioned last week, Megill was being used in the most high-leverage situations before suffering a concussion. When coming back, he was immediately thrust into high-leverage situations and now has two saves in the last week. I think this will be a shared situation, so both should be rostered, but I like what Megill is doing. I also think it might be time to pick Alex Lange – RP, DET (43% rostered) back up. He’s moved back into second on the leverage ladder in Detroit and Jason Foley is really struggling. His velocity has been down over the last few appearances and he’s not missing the bats he was early on. We could see Lange get back into a share of the closer’s gig.

Ryne Nelson – SP, ARI: 3% rostered
Ryne Nelson will make his return from the IL on Sunday, and I think he needs to be picked up in deeper formats. He was pitching to a 4.60 ERA but he was looking good in his last few starts before getting hit with a comebacker. He was keeping the four-seam up and pounding the cutter in on lefties. He hasn’t had the easiest schedule to start the year, but this pick-up recommendation is about my faith in him as a pitcher.

Players to Drop

It’s now been a month, so we’re starting to get a better sense of who players are in 2024. I would still not be cutting my early-round picks (top 100 guys) because there is plenty of time left in the season, but I’ll give you a few players who are rostered in over 50% of leagues who I think might be OK to cut bait on. I’ll also list the schedule as well to highlight which teams have fewer games or face a tougher road of pitchers.

Spencer Torkelson – 1B, DET: 72% rostered
In shallower leagues, I think it’s time to move on from Torkelson. Pitchers are challenging him up in the zone way more than last year and he’s simply not responding. He’s not chasing more or swinging and missing less, but the quality of contact has been awful. He has a 2.2% barrel rate and a 24% Ideal Contact Rate. He’s hitting far more pop-ups, which tells me he’s not able to get his hands on top of the ball at the top of the strike zone. Could he figure it out? Sure, but he doesn’t seem to have his manager’s confidence.

Brandon Pfaadt – SP, ARI: 74% rostered
This is also geared more towards 10 and 12-team leagues, but I don’t think Pfaadt needs to be held. I know he made some changes in the postseason last year and had some good starts, but this is not the breakout profile people seem to want. He remains really a one-pitch pitcher with his sweeper. His other pitches don’t miss enough bats and they give up too much hard contact. He’s also getting hit HARDER by lefties than he did last year. He can be streamed in plus matchups but that should be in for now in shallower formats.

Masataka Yoshida – OF, BOC: 57% rostered

Yoshida is on the IL with a sprained thumb, but he’s going for a second opinion because the injury may require surgery. However, he also was barely playing when he was healthy. Alex Cora seems uninterested in playing Yoshida in the field, which limits his playing time, and the Red Sox seemed to have soured on their recent signing. When he is healthy, and playing, he’ll give you a solid batting average but not a whole lot else. Given that we have no idea how long he’ll be out or how much his team even likes him, it’s hard to hold Yoshida for his muted upside.

Keaton Winn – SP, SF : 29% rostered
This is going to seem counterintuitive because Winn has been pitching so well, but in shallow (10 and 12-team leagues) I think you can move on because of his schedule. In his next four starts, Winn will go to Coors then face the Dodgers. While he’s good enough to hold in deeper formats, in shallow ones, we really need to be churning these types of pitchers when you can’t use them for three weeks. This became a little easier after Saturday’s start.

Players to Hold

Colton Cowser – OF, BAL: 73% rostered

Yes, the last two weeks have not been good for Cowser, seeing him hit 5-for-36. He’s seeing his strikeout rate rise and his swinging strike rate rise, but he’s still hitting the ball well. I know he doesn’t have the longest leash with so many talented players in Baltimore, but we see rookies go through these ups and downs often as pitchers adjust to them. I believe in Cowser’s talent and quality of contact and think he’ll get things sorted out.

Erick Fedde – SP, CWS: 46% rostered
I know Fedde had a poor start on Saturday in gross weather in St. Louis, but I would encourage you not to overreact to that. He simply couldn’t find the zone, and while he still threw three shutout innings to start the game, the lack of feel and command eventually got to him. I think the tweaks to his sweeper have led to very real gains in recent weeks, in both strikeouts and overall performance. At this point, I think Fedde is slightly above the streamer level and is somebody you can keep on your roster and play matchups with. I’d start him against Cleveland next week.

Jeimer Candelario – 1B/3B, CIN: (39% rostered)
I had Candelario on this list last week and this week he went 5-for-18 with a home run, two runs, and two RBI, so I’ll repeat what I said last week: “I know Candelario hasn’t been great to start the year, but there are a few reasons I think you need to hold on. The first is that he has an everyday spot in a good Reds lineup in a great home park. The second is that his season last year was not flukey. He’s a good hitter who was pulling and lifting the ball more than he had in years past, which led to a power boost. He’s always posted solid batting averages, so the added power was a nice addition. Maybe he’s pressing to earn his new contract. Maybe it’s just a cold streak, but I would not be cutting him loose in most 12-team leagues and deeper because I think this will click in.”