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Satellite images show Russia has stopped using the Kerch Bridge for military freight, analysts say.
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The bridge has been a key military artery into occupied Crimea and southwest Ukraine.
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But following Ukrainian attacks, Russia appears to be relying on other routes to supply its army.
Russia has all but stopped transporting military equipment via a strategic Crimean bridge, Ukrainian analysts say, based on satellite imagery.
In an examination of Maxar satellite images by open-source intelligence agency Molfar, analysts said that between February and mid-April, they saw no Russian freight trains carrying military equipment on the Kerch Bridge.
“This may indicate a reluctance on Russia’s part to transport military cargo via the bridge after previous attacks and the use of alternative routes,” Molfar said in a report.
It also said it saw no trains carrying military equipment on the bridge between May and September 2023.
Business Insider was not able to independently verify the findings.
But they appear to echo Ukraine’s Security Service chief Vasyl Malyuk, who said in March that rail traffic had been reduced to a handful of passenger trains since Ukraine attacked the bridge.
The Kerch Bridge connects Russia to occupied Crimea by road and rail, allowing a direct path into the strategically crucial peninsula, as well as an alternative route into occupied southwestern Ukraine.
Built in 2018 following President Vladimir Putin’s annexation of Crimea, the bridge is considered an illegal construction by Ukraine.
In the course of Russia’s full-scale invasion, Ukraine has significantly damaged it twice. The first explosion, in October 2022, saw the bridge’s road section collapse, and a subsequent attack in July 2023 using sea drones appears to have targeted its support struts.
Molfar’s analysis suggests that the military usefulness of the bridge has been all but halted and that Russia is instead relying on land routes.
A brand new 450-mile rail line linking Russia’s Rostov-on-Don to occupied cities like Melitopol is almost complete and “could pose a serious problem,” Ukrainian military intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov said last month, according to The Telegraph.
Molfar CEO Artem Starosiek suggested to BI that rail targets like this may now be more urgent to strike than the Kerch Bridge for Ukraine.
A potent symbol
Despite this, Starosiek said that “if I had the possibility to push the button and hit the bridge, I will do it right now.”
That’s because of the significance of the bridge, and not its current military usefulness to Russia, he said.
The Kerch Bridge has considerable emotional value — both to Putin, who sees it as one of his key achievements — and to Ukraine, which sees it as a hated symbol of Russian occupation.
Ukrainian officials have long talked about destroying it entirely.
In February, Ukrainian naval commander Oleksii Neizhpapa said that the bridge’s “days are over.”
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has previously pointed to the bridge’s military use as a basis for designating it a legitimate target.
On Tuesday, in a post on X, Ukrainian MP Inna Sovsun said that claims the bridge “wasn’t being used for war & therefore not a legitimate target” emanated from a “powerful” Russian disinformation campaign “to prevent the destruction of the Crimean bridge.”
It’s unclear if Sovsun was reacting to Molfar’s report. She did not immediately respond to BI’s request for comment.
Responding to Sovsun’s post, Molfar CEO Artem told BI it is clear Molfar is “not on the Russian side” and highlighted the data behind the work.
“As a regular Ukrainian citizen, I really want to hit this bridge because it’s in my heart,” he said. “But I think sometimes it’s better to do something with more influence right now, and we always have time to destroy the bridge.”
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Source Agencies
