Analysis, reaction, results, wrap, highlights, big three Carlton, Collingwood, Essendon all contenders, holding the ball rule broken – MASHAHER

For 128 years, they’ve been the three giants of the league. And finally they are rising together again.

Plus holding the ball chaos reaches fever pitch, the comeback disappears, Ross Lyon’s excuses and much more.

The big issues from Round 9 of the 2024 AFL season analysed in Talking Points!

Watch every game of every round this Toyota AFL Premiership Season LIVE with no ad-breaks during play on Kayo. New to Kayo? Start your free trial today >

AFL’S 40-YEAR WISH GRANTED AS ‘BIG THREE’ RISE AS ONE

The race for 17 is on.

It’s not a race most fans outside Victoria will care for, but Collingwood’s 2023 triumph saw them draw level with Carlton and Essendon on 16 VFL/AFL premierships – the all-time record.

No team has held the outright lead since Carlton in the late 90s; once the Bombers drew level again with their domination of the 2000 season, both clubs fell into a dark two decades (brief moments of joy aside) allowing the Magpies to catch back up.

Those premierships have made the three clubs the AFL’s historic big three. Richmond (13 flags) was close but the fourth of four, only joining their old rivals in the teens with their three-in-four in the late 2010s. Hawthorn (13 flags) is a modern giant but was a minnow for decades before that and, aside from a massive rise in fan support during their 2010s success, have never been at the big three’s level; Melbourne (13 flags) had the historic success but then decades of pain, and never had the same enormous fanbase.

We’re regaling you with footy history for a reason, trust us.

It’s because the big three haven’t all been good at the same time for decades. And it may finally be happening again.

For clarity (and we know the people who’ll get the most angry won’t read this line anyway): we’re saying all three teams are good, not great. There may not even be a great team this year, with how even things are. Sydney looks the closest to it right now, but remember, they lost to Richmond.

But the Magpies are good. They’re unbeaten since Round 2, finally back in the eight and regaining the aura generated since the middle of 2022 when they re-emerged as a genuine contender.

The Blues are good. They’d be near the top of a form ladder since the middle of 2023; after a few narrow losses they looked quite mighty against Melbourne, only letting the game get close late because all Carlton games are legally required to be close. (It’s in Michael Voss’ contract.)

And, based on Saturday, the Bombers are good. We were critical of all their close wins against middling sides, a few of which could’ve gone either way, and they are the first team to be top three on the ladder with a percentage under 100 since Port Adelaide in 1997. Even the most stat-agnostic fan knows percentage is pretty important.

But then you look at Saturday’s win over the Giants, and that sure looked legit. Their defence has clearly improved, to the point where they’ve actually been tough to play against over the last month or so – for the first time in years – and the midfield is a genuine strength.

We would need to see the Bombers win a few more games like that to fully trust them, but they’re well on their way.

So something the AFL has only dreamt of might finally be a reality: Carlton, Collingwood and Essendon, Victoria’s great powers with their massive fanbases, all contending at the pointy end of the season.

The trio have only made the top eight together twice; in 2011, when Carlton smashed Essendon in an elimination final but narrowly lost the next week, while Collingwood lost the Grand Final; and in 2009, when the former two lost in week one and the Pies were pumped in the prelim.

Before that you have to go all the way back to 1984 – when fourth-placed Collingwood knocked third-placed Carlton out in a semi-final, before eventual premiers Essendon demolished the Magpies by 133 points in their prelim. That was the last time all three teams made it past week one of the finals.

Overall you have to go back to the early 90s for the last time these giants of the game were playing each other in genuinely important finals – Bombers-Blues in the 1993 decider, Pies-Bombers in 1990, and Blues-Pies in 1981.

These games are a distant memory for one generation and, for pretty much everyone born since the VFL became the AFL, just something they know from highlight packages. They have not been footy fans in a world where Carlton, Collingwood and Essendon were all competing for a premiership at the same time.

After Round 9, the Bombers are getting dizzy all the way up in third, while the Blues and Magpies are seventh and eighth.

The latter pair both being contenders is no great surprise. They each made the final four last year, and while the Magpies started slowly this year and the Blues wobbled against a few fellow top-eight teams in recent weeks, both remain well-placed and well-credentialed.

You can quibble with whether they can win three or four finals in a row on current form, but both sides’ best as seen over the past 12 months inarguably places them in the conversation.

Champion Data’s numbers, released after Round 7, suggested Carlton had the third-easiest draw remaining with just four games left against the then-top four. One of those, against Melbourne, they’ve already won.

Few would have Carlton or Collingwood out of their projected top eight from here. But Essendon? Well, there are gonna be some nonbelievers. But just take a look at their fixture and you’ll realise they sure look finals-bound.

Surely the Bombers make the eight?

From 6-2 with a draw after Round 9, they must win minimum 6 of these

Very winnable: North Melbourne (Marvel), Richmond (MCG), West Coast (Marvel), Gold Coast (Marvel)

Winnable/likely favoured: Adelaide (Marvel), St Kilda (Marvel), Fremantle (MCG)

Tricky/50-50 at best: Gold Coast (PFS), Carlton (MCG), Geelong (MCG), Collingwood (MCG), Melbourne (MCG), Sydney (Marvel), Brisbane (Gabba)

You can argue with our exact classifications (Gold Coast away is trickier than you think), but most people would tip the Bombers right now in very winnable and winnable seven games. And on current form, they can certainly win a couple of the trickier games as well.

They won’t win every game they’re favoured in, but they won’t lose every game they’re underdogs in either, because that’s how sport works. On balance they should be able to reach 12 or 13 wins, which with the draw, is likely enough to make the eight.

Going a step further than that, from the team that sneaks into the eight every couple of years and loses an elimination final (as they’ve been for a decade) to a legit contender is something entirely different. We would need to see more than just one very good win over the Giants; but the arrow is inarguably pointing up.

The point of all this is simple: there is genuinely a world where all three of Carlton, Collingwood and Essendon make the preliminary finals in 2024.

Week 1 of finals (if the season ended after Round 9)

First Qualifying Final (1 v 4): Sydney vs Melbourne at the SCG

First Elimination Final (5 v 8): GWS vs Collingwood at Giants Stadium

Second Elimination Final (6 v 7): Port Adelaide vs Carlton at Adelaide Oval

Second Qualifying Final (2 v 3): Geelong vs Essendon at the MCG

Just imagine. The lone week one game in Melbourne sees an eerie repeat of 2017, when Richmond rode a wave of momentum into beating the Cats in the 2 v 3 game and a home prelim. Essendon repeats the feat.

Their opponent is Collingwood, after Craig McRae’s men first down the Giants, then condemn Melbourne to a third consecutive straight-sets exit.

On the other side of the bracket, Carlton does the thing most teams do to Port Adelaide in a final, then pips Geelong in a semi-final thriller thanks to a partisan MCG crowd – booking a date with Sydney at the SCG.

It would be even bigger if the Blues were playing in Melbourne but to be fair, Melbourne could probably not cope with all three teams playing an MCG prelim. The tension in the city would be immense.

We’re a few months away from knowing for sure what would happen. But, for the first time in decades, it’s at least possible.

‘COMPLETELY OUT OF WHACK’: AFL’S ODD COUNTER APPROACH TO CRACKDOWN EXPOSED

Chris Scott couldn’t have been more thorough and diplomatic when asked a curly umpire and rule question on Friday night.

And in the process, the Geelong coach sparked an important conversation around an issue that’s seemingly exposed a countercultural AFL approach.

For Scott isn’t the only one perplexed by the controversial way in which whistleblowers are interpreting ‘holding the ball’ this season.

Speaking to reporters after Geelong’s six-point loss to Port Adelaide, Scott said he was confused by the amount of time umpires, in general, are giving players to get rid of the ball when tackled.

Scott pointed out the delayed whistles were perplexing at a time where players have never been more aware they can’t dump a player for fear of causing a concussion … due to the AFL’s dangerous tackle crackdown.

“The biggest risk that I see, as opposed to some frustrations from the supporters and the coaches and the players, is that the players are really clear that they’ve got to be careful taking a player to ground in the tackle,” Scott said.

“At the moment, you can be spun 360 and still get time to get rid of the ball after having prior opportunity … Jake Kolodjashnij gave up a goal against Carlton two weeks ago where he’s holding onto a player – two years ago he would’ve taken him to ground but we’re telling him ‘don’t do that’ – the Carlton player just turns around and kicks a goal because Jake can’t take him down.

“They don’t have to change the rules. It’s kind of like, that is a whistle and a ball-up straightaway or it’s holding the ball. Some people say ‘oh, there should be no prior opportunity at all’ – that’s ridiculous in my opinion. We should protect the ballplayer who’s trying to keep the game going and if he hasn’t had prior opportunity, he should get time to try to get rid of it. But if it’s clearly locked up, play a stoppage.

“Maybe there is this fear – and I think it is fear mongering – that if we have too many stoppages, the game doesn’t look as good. I just completely disagree with that – but I always have.”

New AFL umpires boss Steve McBurney last week told SEN’s Dwayne’s World that umpires had the balance right, currently, between giving the player with the ball the opportunity to dispose of it and rewarding the tackler.

But McBurney’s comments didn’t sit well with five-time premiership Hawk Dermott Brereton.

“It is completely out of whack. That is a nonsense by Steve McBurney,” Brereton told SEN’s Crunch Time.

Brereton said the main holding the ball issues arise when players are in-traffic and not making a genuine attempt to dispose of the ball, which he claimed “would happen 40 to 50 times a game”.

“That is a professional exploitation of the leniency of the rules as it stands now,” Brereton said.

“If you give a player — and we’ve seen some 760s — two full revolutions in a tackle, the natural reaction to stop him being given all that time to handball out to advantage is to dump him to the ground. And we wonder why we’re getting that?

“It beggars belief to even hear the words ‘we’ve got the balance right’. It is lopsided so far into the wrongs.”

Dual premiership Kangaroo David King added: “At the moment, the tackler’s going: ‘Well he’s not blowing the whistle, I’ve got to take him to the ground. I’ve got to do something else other than what I’m doing, because this is not forcing a call for holding the ball,’ which we’re not paying enough of. And then you’re not challenging the bloke who’s got possession to dispose of the ball. You’re not putting it to him: ‘Hey, give us your best effort — because you’re gone if you don’t.’”

The philosophy behind the delayed whistles could be to keep the ball in motion, as paying holding the ball disrupts flow and momentum.

But if the AFL was hotter on holding the ball, not only would it allow the rewarded tackler a clean kick away to keep play moving, it would further incentivise players with the footy to dispose of it before being tackled.

“If you challenge them to get rid of the footy, they’ll stop doing that rubbish … Not ‘oh we’ll ball it up’ — that’s where we’re wrong,” King said.

“If you pull it back and challenge the man in possession to operate faster than he currently is, you will get more turnover ball, you’ll get more freedom. If you don’t, you’ll get more free kicks.

“So challenge the guy with the footy to do more. And it doesn’t mean you take away the prior opportunity … it’s just a tightening.”

Gerard Whateley added: “I think we’ve put so many layers into holding the ball. When you hear the umpires explain the flowchart that they have to work through, that what we’ve missed is if it quacks like holding the ball and it waddles like holding the ball, pay holding the ball. And let’s get back to that as a philosophy.”

WHAT HAPPENED TO THE COMEBACK?

Remember last year, when Collingwood could recover from seemingly any deficit, Port won a bunch of close games to make the top four, and no lead seemed safe?

It was quite the season, and in fact was one of the most comeback-heavy seasons of the AFL era. There were even more in 2021, but that just suggested a trend was developing – teams must be getting better at storming home to pinch the four points.

But nobody told 2024. Because comeback wins just don’t exist this year.

As footy statistician Tony Corke pointed out over the weekend, no team has completed a comeback from 2+ goals down at three-quarter-time all season.

The last season without a single comeback was 1963, and while we’re a long way from that, it’s still a bizarre turnaround from year-to-year.

Of course, this is where we get another look at the randomness of close games. Because it’s not like teams haven’t made massive comebacks… they just haven’t gotten over the line.

This weekend began with two huge efforts – Melbourne trailed Carlton by 38 in the third term and lost by a point, while Geelong nearly overhauled a 49-point Port Adelaide second term lead, falling a goal short.

Adelaide nearly came from the clouds to beat Gold Coast in Round 1; Sydney was 16 points down at the final change against Richmond and lost by a kick; Hawthorn was four goals down in Gather Round but just fell short of Collingwood.

Plus you have a few completed comebacks that were less than a two-goal difference at three-quarter-time – a bit under one each weekend. Think Carlton-Collingwood (Pies down by five, win by six) or Melbourne-Geelong (Dees trail by two, win by eight).

But those genuinely big comebacks aren’t there; last year the Magpies alone had three.

This is more a statistical anomaly than anything, but we just wanted to note it.

HAS ROSS ‘TURNED INTO AN EXCUSE MACHINE’?

Ross Lyon has been urged to not “worry about excuses” after his criticism on runner restrictions drew the ire of an AFL great.

Lyon after the Saints’ defeat to Hawthorn, though acknowledging it wasn’t an excuse for the result, expressed “incredible frustration” with the restriction on runners relaying messages to players, describing coaches being “like neutered dogs.”

The AFL this season relaxed runner restrictions, increasing the number of times a runner can relay messages from twice per quarter to four times plus after every goal.

The St Kilda coach’s comments already raised eyebrows including ex-Hawks sharpshooter Ben Dixon suggesting Saints players should be better prepared to handle different in-game scenarios, saying on Fox Footy “all good coaches teach their players to read the game.”

So is the Saints coach trying to take attention form his side’s underwhelming on-file performances?

Port Adelaide legend Kane Cornes meanwhile claims to have spotted a pattern in behaviour with Lyon making excuses after losses.

Cornes on Channel 9’s Sunday Footy Show showed a series of clips of Lyon post-match press conferences after losses, where he previously made note of the short turnaround between games as well as a cheeky reference to the free kick count.

“I just think he’s turned into an excuse machine,” Cornes said on the program.

“After every loss I’m sitting there going: ‘What excuse will Ross come up with?’”

The Saints have fallen to 3-6 on the season to sit just percentage ahead of the Hawks in 14th place on the ladder to look a ways off from last year’s finals appearance.

It’s put scrutiny on St Kilda’s defensive-orientated game plan under Lyon, having averaged 73 points from its nine games – including scoring under 70 points in five of them.

Moving forward, Cornes called for Lyon to be more transparent about his team’s game style after losses – and how it can score more – instead of citing other factors.

“The problem for Ross is he’s got to describe what the game plan is and how they’re going to score more,” he added.

“(Against Hawthorn) they took 117 marks and kicked seven goals. Hawthorn had kicked eight goals to three-quarter time and didn’t kick a goal in the last quarter.

“Yet the Saints weren’t able to run over a bottom four side and get it done. They’ve got to come up with a game plan and he has to describe that.

“Don’t worry about the excuses, just tell us how you’re going to adjust your game plan to try and score and challenge the best sides.”

IS ‘EVOLUTION’ OF BLUES’ ‘BRANCHING OUT’ HERO KEY TO 17TH TASTE OF SUCCESS?

One of the biggest determining factors of Carlton’s premiership candidacy this season is its level of predictability entering forward 50.

Michael Voss’ attacking personnel needs flexibility. He and his coaching compatriots know it can’t be Charlie Curnow, Harry McKay or bust. Others need to exert influence.

The Blues’ twin towers receive the vast majority of inside-50 targets from their teammates — and justifiably so — but they also attract hefty opposition attention.

There need to be consistent alternative avenues if the Blues are to challenge deep in September again.

Jack Martin made an impressive return to play on Thursday night, but his week-to-week availability can’t be relied upon.

Tom De Koning has shown his capabilities as a third formidable marking target, but how sustainable is the Blues’ dual ruck set-up? And are we certain he doesn’t do his best work as a full-time tapster? In any case, he’s been a bright spot.

Patrick Cripps — who is starting to see increased time forward of the footy — might hold the keys as a part-time scoring threat.

Now 29 years of age, gone are the days of a bashing-crashing Cripps lining up at nigh-on every centre bounce and obliterating opponents with sheer force.

Cripps is no longer Carlton’s great white hope — nor does he have to be. And the wear and tear on his body from previous years will continue to take its toll.

The Western Australian’s evolution as a footballer fascinates, for his progression is integral to the Blues’ chances of avenging last year’s preliminary final.

But don’t be misled; Carlton’s inspirational leader still bashes and crashes. He just doesn’t — and shouldn’t need to — do it all game long, and most of what he does between the arcs can easily be replicated in attack.

“I loved the use of Patty Cripps (on Thursday night),” two-time North Melbourne premiership player David King said on Fox Footy after the Blues prevailed over Melbourne.

“He was a brute inside, and — we touched on it in the review of last week, they struggled to get the ball from inside to outside — he stepped out a couple of times tonight. He made sure the ball absolutely got there.”

Cripps, the number-one-rated Blue on the ground on Thursday night, notched 35 disposals, 19 contested possessions, seven clearances, 12 ground-ball gets, four score involvements, five tackles, 34 pressure acts, five marks, four inside-50s and a goal. Breathe in that goodness.

“I loved his game,” King continued. “And I love the fact that they’re now exploring more minutes forward of the ball. He’s not in every centre bounce now.

“I think the evolution of Patty Cripps will give Carlton a better product come finals time this year.”

Saints champion Leigh Montagna concurred, telling the tale of the Brownlow medallist’s unselfish arc.

“I agree,” Montagna said. “Because if they need him to, we know what he can do.

“He can go into the middle and dominate around the footy if he has to, but I think he’s trying to branch out, he’s trying to bring others into it.

“(Cripps) was back to his best, and when he and (Sam) Walsh play like that, invariably, Carlton plays better football.”

The comments come after King claimed Cripps was “under-utilised as a forward” and Fox Footy’s Ben Dixon declared he would “love to see” the prolific onballer used more inside 50.

Cripps’ centre-bounce attendance rate this season sits at 75.3 per cent. That’s 7.2 per cent less than his career-high rate in 2022.

It’s also a rate that ranks 17th among AFL midfielders this season, behind the likes of dual-threat onballers Stephen Coniglio (82.6), Zach Merrett (80.6), Marcus Bontempelli (80.2) and Jordan De Goey (77.3).

Maybe Adam Cerra’s latest hamstring setback shifts the superstar’s rate back up a little bit in the coming weeks, but as Voss has publicly noted, the Blues are “sharing the load” this year.

“We realise it’s a long year and we’ve been fortunate enough to get more bodies back. That, hopefully, will put more pressure on players in their positions, because that drives the next level,” Voss told reporters on Thursday evening.

“We’ve got the personnel to be able to keep finding form and keep challenging others. If we can share the load, that’s what we’ll keep doing.”

With ideally healthier bodies abound come the business end of the year, Carlton’s on-ball burden will be evenly distributed — allowing an evolving Cripps to keep ‘branching out’ and ‘bringing others in’ as the Blues brothers band together for another flag assault.

WHY DONS ‘DROUGHT’ COULD FINALLY END AMID STAR’S CONTRACT STANDOFF

Dare to dream, Bombers fans.

Essendon claimed its biggest scalp of 2024 in Saturday’s win over the Giants to climb into the top four.

And so for the first time in a long, long time, this famous club looks like the real deal and appears to have the tools to be a bona fide contender under Brad Scott.

Of course, it’s been over 20 years since Bombers fans have seen their club won a final one of football most wanted droughts spanning 7,190 days.

For Tigers champion Jack Riewoldt though, that streak could be set to end this year.

“For Essendon supporters, the big one is getting to the end of the year,” Riewoldt began on Fox Footy.

“We know there’s been a lot made of the fact they haven’t won a final for nearly 8,000 days, which is a hoodoo.

“That’s what great about footy sometimes. This group of players, which are playing great at the moment, get to go out and potentially at the end of the season break a hoodoo..

“I’ve been involved in something like that. To get the weight off the shoulders, you never know what’s on the other side.”

One man who would be critical to that – and has been critical to the club’s hot start – is Jake Stringer.

After an injury disrupted 2023 season, Stringer has returned to some of his best form. Still such a barometer for the Dons as their biggest X-factor and match winner, the 30-year old has booted 17 goals from nine games this season – the second-most of any Bomber.

Despite Stringer’s strong form, he remains unsigned at Essendon beyond this season as the two parties haggle over a new deal.

Riewoldt thinks all signs point to Stringer eventually re-signing with the Dons, but noted it’s important he has a performance trigger in his deal, when the enigmatic gun has usually performed at his best.

“There needs to be an element of perform and get paid. That’s when he’s at this best, when there’s something on the line,” Riewoldt added.

“I like a two-year contract with a trigger for him.

“He is such an important player for Essendon, so dynamic and potentially he is one of those match winners in finals footy.

“You want to have him at your football club, so I would be surprised if he was playing at another club next year.”

Western Bulldogs legend Brad Johnson thinks Stringer has a “two-year window” to maintain his current insane heights in an exciting period for the Bombers.

“He’s the fittest we’ve seen him in a number of years now and is playing good footy off the back of it,” Johnson said of Stringer on Fox Footy.

“If he stays in this mindset for a couple of years, it could be a strong couple of years for the Bombers.

“I think two years is spot on with a trigger that it could be extended further.”