Can anybody beat Scottie Scheffler?
Wait, is Scheffler even playing?
And did you see Rory McIlroy this past week?
Scheffler, whose wife was expecting their first child at the end of April, has yet to announce whether he will play this week’s PGA Championship at Valhalla Golf Club. Meanwhile, McIlroy, the winner the last time the PGA came to the Louisville, Kentucky, layout, enters the year’s second major on the heels of a five-shot victory over Xander Schauffele at the Wells Fargo Championship.
Scheffler and McIlroy certainly fit the profile for Valhalla. Both drive it long and straight, hit greens at high rates, have the speed to get through some thick rough, and perhaps most importantly, have won at least a couple of these major championships.
With scattered storms and rain expected throughout the week (a flood watch is in effect through Thursday morning), Valhalla should play longer and softer than initially expected, which won’t bother Scheffler and McIlroy, either.
OK, so by now you know that Scheffler and McIlroy are Nos. 1 and 2, respectively, in this ranking. But where do players stack up behind them?
Here is a complete ranking of the entire 156-player PGA Championship field:
Nos. 141-156
156. John Daly
155. Shaun Micheel
154. Rich Beem
153. Josh Bevell
152. Ben Pollard
151. Tracy Phillips
150. Preston Cole
149. Zac Oakley
148. Kyle Mendoza
147. Jeremy Wells
146. Wyatt Worthington II
145. Josh Speight
144. Jeff Kellen
143. John Somers
142. Matt Dobyns
141. Larkin Gross
Mostly club professionals here. Let’s be honest, if you’re betting on these guys, it’s trying to predict who will finish last. The 58-year-old Daly, who hasn’t made a major cut since the 2012 PGA, is the best bet.
Nos. 131-140
140. Tyler Collet
139. Evan Bowser
138. Jared Jones
137. Braden Shattuck
136. Jesse Mueller
135. Y.E. Yang
134. Brad Marek
133. Michael Block
132. Andy Svoboda
131. Jason Dufner
Now we’re in low club pro territory. It’s highly unlikely Block – or anyone for that matter – will do what he did last year at Oak Hill. In fact, Svoboda, a former touring pro who owns three career Korn Ferry Tour wins, his last coming in 2016, is probably the play over Block. Dufner is riding a streak of five straight MCs at the PGA and will most likely get eaten up by Valhalla’s length and rough.
Nos. 121-130
130. Luke Donald
129. Jimmy Walker
128. Francesco Molinari
127. Martin Kaymer
126. Camilo Villegas
125. Ryan van Velzen
124. Zac Blair
123. Brice Garnett
122. Phil Mickelson
121. Ben Kohles
Some past champs with not much game left, and yes, that includes Mickelson, who crazily won this championship three years ago. … Villegas’ tee-to-green game has really fallen apart this year … Van Velzen has three straight top-11s – on the Sunshine Tour. … Garnett is a winner this year, and Kohles almost won last week, but those have been among few highlights for the two.
Nos. 111-120
120. Padraig Harrington
119. Taylor Montgomery
118. Tiger Woods
117. Kazuma Kobori
116. Alexander Björk
115. Adrian Otaegui
114. Cameron Davis
113. Gary Woodland
112. Lucas Herbert
111. Tim Widing
Harrington made 3 of 3 major cuts a year ago and was T-4 at the PGA in 2021. He’s still got a little bit. … Montgomery is No. 1 in strokes gained putting, but he’s struggled getting to the green (No. 167 in strokes gained tee to green). … Woods and thick, major-championship rough don’t mix these days. … Woodland’s T-38 at Wells Fargo was great to see, though he still doesn’t look 100% out there. … Widing has won twice on the Korn Ferry Tour in the past two weeks, but this is a major.
Nos. 101-110
110. Andy Ogletree
109. Ryan Fox
108. Jesper Svensson
107. Nick Dunlap
106. Rickie Fowler
105. Brendon Todd
104. Matt Wallace
103. Adam Svensson
102. Thriston Lawrence
101. Rasmus Højgaard
Ogletree earned his way back onto LIV via the Asian Tour last year, and he was T-3 a couple starts ago in Adelaide. … Dunlap will get it going eventually, but he isn’t driving it nearly well enough to do it this week. … Fowler looked to be turning things around with a T-30 at the Masters followed by a T-18 at the RBC Heritage, but he was T-43 at the 68-man Wells Fargo and is ranked outside the top 130 in strokes gained putting and tee to green. … The other Hojgaard hasn’t played since he shot 79 and then WD’d from the Hero Indian Open.
Nos. 91-100
100. Peter Malnati
99. Robert MacIntyre
98. Eric Cole
97. Alejandro Tosti
96. K.H. Lee
95. Justin Rose
94. Ryo Hisatsune
93. S.H. Kim
92. Beau Hossler
91. Thorbjorn Olesen
Malnati is the Tour’s second-best putter and also one of its worst drivers (No. 172 in total driving). He also beat just two guys at Quail Hollow. … It’s been a tough year for MacIntyre, especially hitting fairways. … Cole isn’t playing like the guy who won Rookie of the Year right now. He was dead last at Quail Hollow, though is barely outside the top 60 in strokes gained tee to green. … Tosti can move it and ranks third in strokes gained off the tee, but he has had trouble stringing together good rounds and the mistakes will be amplified at Valhalla. … Lee has now gone four straight non-team events without a top-30 finish. Iron play has hurt him. … Rose is a big name who hits fairways, but he’s No. 161 in strokes gained tee to green. … Hisatsune had a top-15 at the Byron Nelson before MC’ing in Myrtle Beach. Solid iron player, though. … Kim got in off the alternate list. He’s got a couple top-15s in the last couple months and is No. 15 in strokes gained putting, but the driving is a big question. … Hossler remains a top-25 putter, and he’s gotten his GIR stat to No. 51, but he’s still No. 166 in total driving and hadn’t cracked the top 50 in a Tour event until his T-4 in Myrtle Beach. … Olesen great from the rough, which will help, but he need a final-round 61 in Myrtle to avoid another finish outside the top 35.
Nos. 81-90
90. Sami Valimaki
89. Lee Hodges
88. Tom Kim
87. Ben Griffin
86. Charley Hoffman
85. Vincent Norrman
84. Nick Taylor
83. Luke List
82. Emiliano Grillo
81. Alex Smalley
Valimaki has been slumping, including MC’in in Myrtle Beach. But he is a top-50 total driver still. … Hodges ranks nearly outside the top 150 in strokes gained tee to green. … Kim is overrated considering he’s ranked No. 132 in strokes gained tee to green and No. 102 in putting. His major record could save him – five top-30s in his last seven starts – but he’s 0 for 3 in making cuts at the PGA. … Griffin is a top-35 putter and chipper, and he’s been T-16 or better in three of last four starts. Driver could give him issues in a major, though. … Like Griffin, Hoffman’s short game needs to be clutch. … Norrman can drive the ball – and far. Plus, he’s No. 14 in greens in regulation. But he’s also dead last in strokes gained putting. … I was so, so high on Taylor entering the Masters, and he MC’d. He’s seventh in proximity from fairway center and No. 17 in strokes gained putting, but I’m not biting this time. … List is No. 96 in strokes gained tee to green; that’s all you need to know. … Grillo has missed four of his last five major cuts and is coming off a T-64 at Wells Fargo. He’s also No. 117 in total driving. … Smalley got in when Steve Stricker withdrew; his short game won’t bail him out, but he’s got three top-20s in his last four Tour starts.
Nos. 71-80
80. David Puig
79. Jordan Smith
78. Adrian Meronk
77. J.T. Poston
76. Adam Hadwin
75. Mark Hubbard
74. Takumi Kanaya
73. Sepp Straka
72. Mackenzie Hughes
71. Brian Harman
Puig hasn’t fared well in his LIV starts, but he does have five straight top-10s in Asian Tour events, including a win in February in Malaysia. … Smith has four top-25s in his last five starts on the DPWT. … Meronk MC’d at Masters but was T-10 at LIV Singapore. … A T-5 at Harbour Town has been one of few bright spots recently for Poston, who is outside the top 40 in strokes gained putting. … Perhaps more shockingly, Hadwin is outside the top 70 in strokes gained putting. … Hubbard has made 12 straight cuts on Tour, though he’s No. 104 in total driving and No. 156 in rough proximity. … Kanaya won in Japan a few starts ago, but he’s also missed each of his last eight major cuts. … Straka’s T-8 at Wells Fargo was his fourth straight top-16, a streak that started at the Masters. He’s ranked here simply because if he starts missing fairways, it could go south quick. … Hughes is No. 169 in total driving, though if he putts like he did at Wells Fargo, where he was T-6 on the leaderboard, he should make cut. … Harman is a concerning No. 119 in total driving, but he’s also top 15 in strokes gained putting and proximity from the center of fairway. Also has just one finish better than T-40 in his PGA career.
Nos. 61-70
70. Tom Hoge
69. Chris Gotterup
68. Keegan Bradley
67. Thomas Detry
66. Sebastian Soderberg
65. Maverick McNealy
64. Taylor Pendrith
63. Denny McCarthy
62. Jake Knapp
61. Grayson Murray
Hoge is second in strokes gained approach but No. 122 off the tee. … Gotterup has the hot hand after convincing win in Myrtle Beach. Could be just what the talented bomber needs. … Tosti is third in strokes gained off the tee, and though … Bradley is top 50 in strokes gained tee to green and total driving, and he has a pair of top-25s in his last three starts, at the Masters and Wells Fargo. … Most of his strokes-gained numbers don’t look great, but Detry is No. 16 in putting and top 25 in clubhead speed. … Never heard of Soderberg? Well, he’s got three straight top-3s on the DP World Tour. … It’s good to see McNealy healthy again. He’s top 25 in strokes gained off the tee and is No. 37 in putting after leading the Tour last season. … Something has clicked with Pendrith’s driving. After he won the Byron Nelson, he was fifth in strokes gained off the tee at Wells Fargo, where he was T-10 on the leaderboard. … McCarthy also played well at Quail Hollow (T-6), but hard to swallow his No. 126 total-driving rank. … Strong and nearly top 10 in strokes gained approach, Knapp will be a popular pick. However, he’s been T-45 or worse in five of his last six starts. … I liked Murray before his T-10 at Wells Fargo. The results hadn’t been there, but he’s fourth in both total driving and rough proximity.
Nos. 51-60
60. Doug Ghim
59. Andrew Putnam
58. Keita Nakajima
57. Christiaan Bezuidenhout
56. Lucas Glover
55. Victor Perez
54. Dustin Johnson
53. Taylor Moore
52. Patrick Cantlay
51. Tommy Fleetwood
Ghim got in the field as an alternate, and though he’s not long and has a few MCs of late, he’s extremely well-rounded and tends to play hard golf courses well. … Putnam is accurate off the tee and has been T-55 or better in three of last four majors; not bad in this spot. … After a win at the Hero Indian Open and T-11 at the ISPS Handa, don’t sleep on Nakajima. … Bezuidenhout might drive his way to an MC, but he’s also spectacular on and around the greens and has been stringing together top-25s on the PGA and DP World tours. … Glover still splits fairways and flushes irons. Good to at least make the cut. … Perez hasn’t been pretty poor at majors other than his T-12 last year at the PGA. Will hit greens, though. … Johnson has just one top-10 in his last five major starts and has gone MC, MC, T-55 in his last three PGAs. But perhaps a T-7 in Singapore can revive him. … Moore has cooled off since his Masters T-20, but he’s nearly top 50 in total driving and surprisingly No. 35 in clubhead speed. … Four straight top-30s now for Cantlay, but he still lost strokes off the tee and on approach at Wells Fargo. Not yet back. … Fleetwood made me look foolish with his T-3 at the Masters, but even with a top 15 at Wells Fargo, I’m not fully on board yet. He’s No. 119 in strokes gained tee to green, though that’s mostly due to poor iron play; he’s top 25 in total driving.
Nos. 41-50
50. Patrick Rodgers
49. Aaron Rai
48. Viktor Hovland
47. Russell Henley
46. Erik van Rooyen
45. Harris English
44. Dean Burmester
43. Nicolai Højgaard
42. Patrick Reed
41. Sungjae Im
Rodgers hasn’t done much other than a T-5 at RBC Heritage, but he’s decently long, and has hit greens at a top-12 clip this year. … Wet golf course will hurt the guy with two rain gloves, go figure. But Rai is top 20 in strokes gained tee to green this year. … Hovland is the biggest mystery in the field, but he has been around Zoysia quite a bit since college. … Henley has four top-12s in his last six starts, but he also just one top-20 in 10 PGA appearances. Should find plenty of fairways. … Can’t put a ton of stock in a T-4 in Myrtle Beach, but it’s better than a MC in Myrtle Beach. Van Rooyen isn’t a great rough player, but he’s solid enough across the board to overcome it. … English is No. 16 in total driving and has been in this territory on Tour leaderboards frequently in recent months. … Mean Dean has five straight top-15 on LIV, including his win in Miami. Hard to ignore Mean Dean. … Favoring Hojgaard as a top-10 total driver more than a guy who has missed back-to-back cuts since his T-16 at the Masters. … Reed has cracked the top 20 at three of his past four PGAs. … A win in Korea and then T-4 at Wells Fargo; Im might be back.
Nos. 31-40
40. Max Homa
39. Will Zalatoris
38. Stephan Jaeger
37. Adam Schenk
36. Jason Day
35. Austin Eckroat
34. Talor Gooch
33. Justin Thomas
32. Ben An
31. Collin Morikawa
That T-3 at the Masters will do a lot for Homa’s confidence, as will a top-10 at Quail Hollow, but he’s also outside the top 50 in total driving. … Purely an injury concern for Zalatoris. Though his back seems fine, this rough scares me. … Jaeger keeps banking top-20s (three straight), good rough player and top 25 in total driving. … Schenk is top 20 in total driving and top 25 in clubhead speed, but he was also bottom four on the Wells Fargo leaderboard. … Day is No. 13 in total driving and top 25 in strokes gained putting, plus he was T-4 at Wells Fargo. … My Eckroat ranking at the Masters backfired, and he did not look good at Quail Hollow, but he’s No. 16 in strokes gained tee to green and will be playing off Zoysia. … Same thinking for Gooch, another Cowboy and Zoysia guy. My only concern is if the pressure will be too much as he looks to prove himself to the non-LIV crowd. … I really want to believe in Thomas, especially with this being a home game. The iron play is there, and he’s top 10 in proximity from the rough, but I need to see the complete game in a major again first. … An is heating up as he won the non-Rory/Xander flight at the Wells Fargo. Top 15 in total driving and greens in regulation. … Morikawa has top-10’d in three of four starts, including his T-3 at the Masters. He’s third in proximity from the center of the fairway. He’ll have longer clubs in than most guys, though, and I always worry if the putter will hurt him.
Nos. 21-30
30. Matthieu Pavon
29. Billy Horschel
28. Jordan Spieth
27. Tyrrell Hatton
26. Adam Scott
25. Cam Smith
24. Kurt Kitayama
23. Cameron Young
22. Min Woo Lee
21. Hideki Matsuyama
Didn’t think Pavon’s stellar play this year would continue at a major? He was T-12 at the Masters. He’s top 20 in total driving, strokes gained approach and strokes gained putting. I knocked him down a few spots after his next-to-DFL finish at Quail Hollow. … Entering Wells Fargo, Horschel was No. 11 in true strokes gained in his last 20 rounds. He also is top 15 in strokes gained putting and greens in regulation. I’m banking on a good driving week here. … Should Spieth be lower? He’s missed three of his last five cuts, including at Augusta National, and I’m already envisioning him hacking circus shots out of Valhalla’s rough. But he’s pretty much top 30 in a lot of stats I’m looking at here. He could surprise. … Hatton has top-15’d in two straight PGAs. He was T-9 at Masters, and he’s got two top-5s in his last three LIV starts. … Scott is ninth in total driving and top 30 in strokes gained putting. In six of his last seven major starts, he’s been top 40, too. … Smith is coming off his best PGA finish a year ago (T-9) and was just T-2 in Singapore. Maybe he should be higher. … The fact that Kitayama has shed his driving struggles this year is one positive; another is that he’s fifth in rough proximity. … Nearly top 10 in true driving stands out for Young, but so does his five top-10s in his last eight major starts. … Lee ranks behind only McIlroy in total driving and has cracked the top 30 in six of his past nine major starts, including a T-18 last year at Oak Hill. … Matsuyama withdrew from the Wells Fargo with a back injury. Because of that, we’ll knock down Matsuyama a couple tiers, though if he plays, it’s worth noting that he’s second in true strokes gained in his last 20 rounds while also ranking second on Tour in strokes gained tee to green.
Nos. 11-20
20. Matthew Fitzpatrick
19. Chris Kirk
18. Sam Burns
17. Keith Mitchell
16. Si Woo Kim
15. Shane Lowry
14. Tony Finau
13. Sahith Theegala
12. Corey Conners
11. Akshay Bhatia
In his past nine major starts, Fitzpatrick has seven top-25s, including a T-5 at the PGA in 2022. Has added speed in recent years and drives the ball on a string (eighth in proximity from center of fairway, No. 12 in total driving). … Kirk’s Wells Fargo play wasn’t great, but he was coming off top-16s at Augusta and Harbour Town. He also was T-5 at the PGA in 2022 and ranks sixth on Tour in strokes gained tee to green. … Why is Burns this high considering he’s never top-10’d in a major and has missed three of his last five major cuts? Trust the data. He’s essentially a top-30 putter who is top 20 in total driving. Never been an elite iron player, but after some time off to be a first-time dad, he has a nice week. … Mitchell probably isn’t going to make many putts, but he’s top 10 in both strokes gained off the tee and greens in regulation. Half of his six major cuts made have come at the PGA. … Another guy who doesn’t wow on the greens, but I loved Kim at the Masters, and he turned in a T-30, his worst finish in his past six starts. He doesn’t have a ton of length, but no one except Scheffler is better at finding the center of the fairway than him. … Lowry leads the Tour in proximity out of the rough and is third in strokes gained approach while he’s posted top-12s in four of his last six PGA starts. … Long and wet golf course? I’ll take my chances with Finau, who is seventh in total driving, sixth in clubhead speed and greens in regulation, and fifth in strokes gained approach. That’s a lot of stats! … Theegala has been rolling it so well this year while also being top 25 in strokes gained tee to green. His demeanor in these big events make his floor very high. And if the player who was second to Scheffler in Hilton Head shows up, he could win. … Conners burned me at the Masters (T-34), but he’s a top-5 approach player from whatever lie you give him and he’s finished in the top 15 in three of his past four Tour starts. … Too high for the kid? Nah. Bhatia was T-35 at the Masters despite nursing an injury sustained in that Valero playoff, which he won. Top 20 in total driving, sixth in strokes gained approach and a wicked short game when he does miss the green.
Nos. 1-10
10. Alex Noren
9. Wyndham Clark
8. Joaquin Niemann
7. Bryson DeChambeau
6. Jon Rahm
5. Ludvig Åberg
4. Brooks Koepka
3. Xander Schauffele
2. Rory McIlroy
1. Scottie Scheffler
Noren?! Hear me out: He’s ninth in strokes gained tee to green, is the Tour’s best scrambler from the rough and has seven straight top-25s on Tour. The only blemish is his major record (two top-10s in 36 starts). … Accuracy off the tee isn’t Clark’s forte, but he’s solid out of the rough and a top-10 putter. He’s not been good in PGAs (T-75 is his best finish) and he’s been up and down of late, including a MC at Masters, but our metrics love him, so he stays in top 10. … Niemann owns no career top-10s in PGAs, but he’s continued to be one of LIV’s top performers and his T-22 at the Masters proves that translates to the big events. … On a long and wet golf course with thick rough everywhere, this should play right into DeChambeau’s hands. … Rahm is probably still seething over his Masters T-45. His driver leads him back into major contention this week. … Obviously, we’re paying attention to the knee issue, but if healthy, Åberg should deliver as he’s third in total driving and is above average from the rough on approach and around the greens. And his runner-up at the Masters shows he’s ready to win majors. … We don’t have the stats for Koepka like we do the Tour guys, but we do know he’s got three Wanamakers to his name and won his last time out on LIV. … Despite just one career PGA top-10, Schauffele fits the Valhalla profile, ranking sixth in total driving and ninth in clubhead speed. He’s also the second-best putter out of the top 10 in total driving. … McIlroy is No. 1 on Tour in total driving, plus he’s won a PGA at Valhalla and just lapped the field by five at Quail Hollow, next year’s PGA venue. … As long as he’s playing, Scheffler, winner of four of his past five events, is the unquestioned favorite as the Tour’s leader in strokes gained tee to green and approach, greens in regulation and average distance from the center of the fairway.
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