The Premier League’s finish line is in sight, but we are no closer to finding out who will claim the league title as five teams jostle for position in pursuit of European football next season.
Liverpool have faded away from the title race, leaving Arsenal and Manchester City in a two-horse race that will go down to the final matchday.
Ange Postecoglou’s Tottenham will also have a say on the battle between Arsenal and City for top spot as they look to leapfrog Aston Villa and secure Champions League football for next season.
Tottenham are also caught in a wild four-way tussle for Europa League and Europa Conference League qualification.
Foxsports.com.au breaks down EVERY scenario regarding the title race and European spots … along with the utterly unthinkable relegation scenario.
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TITLE RACE
1st: Arsenal (P37, 86 pts, +61)
Remaining fixtures: Everton (h)
2nd: Manchester City (P36, 85 pts, +58)
Remaining fixtures: Tottenham (a), West Ham United (h)
Well, isn’t this a bit exciting?
Both teams were neck-and-neck for so long last season before Arsenal simply ran out of gas as Manchester City went on to claim their third-straight league title.
But Mikel Arteta’s side now know what it takes to be a true title contender and remain firmly in the mix with a one point buffer going into the final game.
With a slightly superior goal difference and a solitary point advantage, the title is Arsenal’s to lose at the moment.
However, Manchester City have that all-important game in hand as Arsenal pray their arch rivals Tottenham can get a result against Pep Guardiola’s side.
The result of City against Spurs on Wednesday morning (AEST) will certainly set the mood around the title race, as both title contenders enjoy home games to finish off the season.
How Arsenal win the title
– Arsenal defeat Everton; Manchester City defeat Tottenham and draw with West Ham (vice versa)
– Arsenal draw with Everton; Manchester City draw with Tottenham and West Ham
– Arsenal draw with Everton; Manchester City lose to Tottenham and draw with West Ham (vice versa)
– Arsenal lose to Everton; Manchester City lose to Tottenham and West Ham
How Manchester City win the title
– Arsenal defeat Everton; Manchester City defeat Tottenham and West Ham
– Arsenal draw with Everton; Manchester City defeat Tottenham and draw with West Ham (vice versa)
– Arsenal draw with Everton; Manchester City lose to Tottenham and defeat West Ham (vice versa)
– Arsenal lose to Everton; Manchester City draw with Tottenham and West Ham
– Arsenal lose to Everton; Manchester City defeat Tottenham and defeat/draw/lose to West Ham
CHAMPIONS LEAGUE
4th: Aston Villa (P36, 67 pts, +20)
Remaining fixtures: Liverpool (h), Crystal Palace (a)
5th: Tottenham Hotspur (P36, 63 pts, +12)
Remaining fixtures: Manchester City (h), Sheffield United (a)
To most neutral observers, Aston Villa have emerged as the surprise package of the season but the rise of the Midlands club is one that clued in fans will have seen coming.
Ever since Emery took over last year, Villa have become a fearsome outfit and they continued the momentum into this season despite losing star duo Tyrone Mings and Emi Buendia before the season began.
However, a lack of depth, more injuries to key players and a run to the Europa Conference League semi finals has Emery’s troops running on empty and stumbling over the finishing line.
Tottenham have also suffered a major wobble as of late, losing four consecutive games to give Villa a leg up in the battle for the final Champions League spot.
A vital win over Burnley snapped that run, but a daunting challenge awaits against Manchester City who have their own title ambitions.
Champions League qualification would cap off a remarkable debut season for Ange Postecoglou as a Premier League boss, but could it be a bridge too far?
How Aston Villa secure a Champions League spot
– Aston Villa defeat Liverpool, all other results irrelevant
– Tottenham lose to either Manchester City or Sheffield United
– Aston Villa draw with Liverpool and lose to Crystal Palace (vice versa); Tottenham defeat Manchester City and draw with Sheffield United (vice versa)
– Aston Villa draw with Liverpool and lose to Crystal Palace (vice versa); Tottenham defeat Manchester City and lose to Sheffield United (vice versa)
– Aston Villa lose to Liverpool and Crystal Palace; Tottenham defeat Manchester City and draw with Sheffield United (vice versa)
– Aston Villa lose to Liverpool and Crystal Palace; Tottenham draw with Manchester City and Sheffield United
– Aston Villa lose to Liverpool and defeat Crystal Palace; Tottenham’s result is irrelevant
How Tottenham secure a Champions League spot
– Tottenham must beat both Manchester City and Sheffield United
– Aston Villa cannot win any of their games against Liverpool and Sheffield United
– Aston Villa lose to Liverpool and draw with Crystal Palace (vice versa); Tottenham defeat Manchester City and Sheffield United
BATTLE FOR EUROPE
5th: Tottenham Hotspur (P36, 63 pts, +12)
Remaining fixtures: Manchester City (h), Sheffield United (a)
6th: Newcastle (P36, 57 pts, +22)
Remaining fixtures: Manchester United (a), Brentford (a)
7th: Chelsea (P36, 57 pts, +12)
Remaining fixtures: Brighton (a), Bournemouth (h)
8th: Manchester United (P36, 54 pts, -14)
Remaining fixtures: Newcastle (h), Brighton (a)
OK, here’s where things get rather complicated so bear with us.
As it stands, fifth place receives direct entry to the Europa League while sixth qualifies for the Europa Conference League playoffs as the other Europa League spot goes to the winner of the FA Cup final.
Like last year, the FA Cup final is being contested between Manchester City and Manchester United.
City have already qualified for the Champions League, which means if they win the FA Cup final, the Europa League spot then goes to the team that comes sixth, allowing whoever finishes seventh a spot in the Europa Conference League.
That’s why it’s in Newcastle and Chelsea’s interest for Pep Guardiola’s side to win back-to-back FA Cup trophies.
As for United, they’d want to avoid the scenario of needing to win the FA Cup final just to make the Europa League, but to make the top six will prove extremely difficult.
All eyes on the fight for the top six will no doubt centre on Old Trafford on Thursday as United host Newcastle in a clash which has significant permutations in the fight for Europe.
Given Manchester United will qualify for the Europa League if they win the FA Cup final, let’s break down all the scenarios should they lose the final.
How Tottenham secure a Europa League spot
– Tottenham draw with either Manchester City or Sheffield United; all other results irrelevant
– Newcastle and Chelsea fail to win either of their final games
How Newcastle secure a Europa League spot
– Newcastle defeat Manchester United and Brentford; all other results irrelevant
– Newcastle defeat Manchester United; Chelsea lose to either Brighton or Bournemouth
– Chelsea fail to match Newcastle’s points haul
– Newcastle lose to Manchester United and Brentford; Chelsea lose to Brighton and Bournemouth, Manchester United defeat Newcastle and lose to Brighton
How Chelsea secure a Europa League spot
– Chelsea defeat Brighton and Bournemouth; Newcastle defeat Manchester United and draw with Brentford (vice versa)
– Chelsea defeat Brighton and draw with Bournemouth (vice versa); Newcastle defeat Manchester United and lose to Brentford (vice versa)
– Chelsea draw with Brighton and Bournemouth; Newcastle lose to Manchester United and draw with Brentford (vice versa), Manchester United draw or lose against Brighton
– Chelsea draw with Brighton and lose to Bournemouth (vice versa); Newcastle lose to Manchester United and Brentford, Manchester United defeat Newcastle and draw/lose against Brighton
How Manchester United secure a Europa League spot
– Manchester United must defeat Newcastle, a draw will not suffice in any scenario
– Chelsea and Newcastle must lose both of their games
– Manchester United defeat Newcastle and draw with Brighton; Newcastle and Chelsea lose both of their games
– Manchester United defeat Newcastle and Brighton; Newcastle draw their final game and Chelsea take one point from their final two games
BONKERS SCENARIO TO FLIP RELEGATION ON ITS HEAD
Burnley and Sheffield United are making an instant return to the Championship and it is all but confirmed Luton Town will join them.
But it’s not mathematically confirmed just yet.
So, how can the Hatters produce a FIFA-like miracle to stay in the Premier League?
As it stands, Luton are on 26 points with a goal differential of -31 while Nottingham Forest sit in 17th on 29 points and a goal differential of -19.
If Luton are to survive, they must beat Fulham on the final day of the season, hope Nottingham Forest lose to Burnley and, somewhere amid the madness, have a 12-goal swing.
It’s extremely unlikely, but it’s not over until it’s over.
Source Agencies
