PUNE: After IMD announced a near-normal monsoon onset over Kerala around May 31 this year, with a model error of plus-minus four days, top weather experts indicated on Thursday the timely arrival of rains over parts of south peninsular India, Northeast and Maharashtra as well.
“The absence of potential cyclone formations over the Arabian Sea or Bay of Bengal around the time of the monsoon onset over Kerala suggests a favourable scenario for the timely progression of the monsoon for a few days thereafter.Cyclone formations typically disrupt the monsoon flow. However, with none expected as per current model forecasts, the first monsoon pulse aiding Kerala’s onset is likely to support a near-normal advancement over the adjoining areas of south peninsular India and northeast India,” a senior India Meteorological Department (IMD) official told TOI.
“Monsoon typically enters northeast India around June 5 and its progress depends on the subsequent monsoon pulse,” the official added. Monsoon usually enters parts of Maharashtra around June 9-10, as per IMD’s new normal monsoon onset dates. It enters Pune around June 10 and Mumbai around June 11.
“The date of advance of monsoon over extreme southern region of Maharashtra is around June 5,” said Medha Khole, head of IMD-Pune’s weather forecasting division.
“There are some cyclonic circulations and a trough in extreme south peninsular India, close to the Lakshadweep and Comorin region. The southwesterly winds will gradually strengthen. Some models are also indicating development of a low-pressure system over the equatorial Indian Ocean around May 26. As a result, rainfall activity will enhance along south peninsular India. It is possible that the monsoon onset over Kerala may occur anytime between May 28 and 31,” she said.
M Rajeevan, former secretary, ministry of earth sciences, said, “The model predictions suggest good rainfall activity in June. With an emerging La Nina, we can expect a bountiful monsoon. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts also indicates a normal onset time for parts of south India, including Maharashtra, and the northeast.”
He said, “As per these models, monsoon could arrive in Maharashtra around the usual date of June 10. This is the inference we can make from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts beyond June 1. With La Nina conditions expected during monsoon, we can anticipate good rainfall throughout the season in parts of India.”
Skymet Weather Services concurred, stating that monsoon could set in over Kerala on June 1, close to IMD’s forecast. Its president, G P Sharma, said, “A system may emerge over the Bay of Bengal by around May 26- 27. Whenever this sort of vortex or system is there over Bay of Bengal, it is at the right time… just about the time of monsoon onset.”
“The absence of potential cyclone formations over the Arabian Sea or Bay of Bengal around the time of the monsoon onset over Kerala suggests a favourable scenario for the timely progression of the monsoon for a few days thereafter.Cyclone formations typically disrupt the monsoon flow. However, with none expected as per current model forecasts, the first monsoon pulse aiding Kerala’s onset is likely to support a near-normal advancement over the adjoining areas of south peninsular India and northeast India,” a senior India Meteorological Department (IMD) official told TOI.
“Monsoon typically enters northeast India around June 5 and its progress depends on the subsequent monsoon pulse,” the official added. Monsoon usually enters parts of Maharashtra around June 9-10, as per IMD’s new normal monsoon onset dates. It enters Pune around June 10 and Mumbai around June 11.
“The date of advance of monsoon over extreme southern region of Maharashtra is around June 5,” said Medha Khole, head of IMD-Pune’s weather forecasting division.
“There are some cyclonic circulations and a trough in extreme south peninsular India, close to the Lakshadweep and Comorin region. The southwesterly winds will gradually strengthen. Some models are also indicating development of a low-pressure system over the equatorial Indian Ocean around May 26. As a result, rainfall activity will enhance along south peninsular India. It is possible that the monsoon onset over Kerala may occur anytime between May 28 and 31,” she said.
M Rajeevan, former secretary, ministry of earth sciences, said, “The model predictions suggest good rainfall activity in June. With an emerging La Nina, we can expect a bountiful monsoon. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts also indicates a normal onset time for parts of south India, including Maharashtra, and the northeast.”
He said, “As per these models, monsoon could arrive in Maharashtra around the usual date of June 10. This is the inference we can make from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts beyond June 1. With La Nina conditions expected during monsoon, we can anticipate good rainfall throughout the season in parts of India.”
Skymet Weather Services concurred, stating that monsoon could set in over Kerala on June 1, close to IMD’s forecast. Its president, G P Sharma, said, “A system may emerge over the Bay of Bengal by around May 26- 27. Whenever this sort of vortex or system is there over Bay of Bengal, it is at the right time… just about the time of monsoon onset.”
Source Agencies
