Despite President Joe Biden’s Catholically-complicated relationship with abortion, the charged issue may just be his best shot at taking back the swing states – and the White House.
Abortion was the only one of three issues in a survey by the New York Times, the Philadelphia Inquirer and Siena College that voters in all six identified swing states said they would trust Biden to handle more than former President and presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump.
Trump led Biden in five of the six: Pennsylvania, Arizona, Michigan, Georgia and Nevada. Voters still said they favored the current president over the former on abortion by 20 percentage points in Pennsylvania and 11 points in Arizona – two states where Biden was closest to catching Trump.
Experts and voters USA TODAY spoke to in both states said talk of reproductive rights could very well give the president’s reelection campaign a boost between now and November.
However, they emphasized that a single issue will not be a fix-all.
Trump was trusted more by voters in all six states to handle the economy and Israeli-Palestinian conflict, according to the poll.
“No doubt that (abortion) is a significant mobilizing force for Pennsylvania voters, especially women,” said Steve McGovern, a professor of political science at Haverford College in southeast Pennsylvania.
“Unfortunately,” he continued, “it’s one of the few forces that are working in favor of Biden.”
Democrats lead and Republicans struggle with abortion
University of Arizona political science professor Samara Klar said she is not surprised that Biden’s abortion stance is resonating with Arizona voters.
In the recent polling, 64% of Arizona voters said they think abortion should be always or mostly legal, and 14% said it is the one issue most important to their vote this year.
“And that’s a problem for Republicans,” Klar said. “Republicans are trying to get this out of the headlines as much as they can.”
Democrats saw a bump in victories during the 2022 midterm elections, months after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade and decades of national abortion precedent. The Biden campaign hopes to recreate such victories in 2024, including in places like Florida where abortion is explicitly on the November ballot.
Biden, a devout Catholic, opposes abortion personally and has in the past opposed the procedure politically, once saying the Supreme Court went too far with Roe v. Wade. But now, as the nation’s top Democrat, Biden has come out in support of the right to choose an abortion.
Pennsylvania state Sen. Dan Laughlin, a Republican who represents the bellwether county of Erie, has been urging his party to rethink its stance on abortion.
Laughlin too is personally opposed to abortion but supports Democrats’ efforts to codify the provisions of Roe v. Wade.
“The overturning of Roe v. Wade was almost the holy grail, if you will, of the Republican Party for 50 years. For the pro-life movement, it was an intangible for them. And then when they were successful, I don’t think a lot of them had thought what it would look like beyond that.
“The political backlash has opened a lot of eyes as to where the country really stands,” he added.
Though Laughlin has been highly critical of Trump, he believes the former president can still win Pennsylvania and retake the White House despite the abortion issue.
Though he has touted his role in overturning Roe by nominating multiple conservative Supreme Court justices, Trump backed away from supporting a national ban, saying last month the issue should be left to states.
Many Republicans are having to do an about-face to keep up with greater public support for abortion rights, Klar said.
“In Arizona, it could cost Republicans the election,” she said. “And they know that, and they’re trying to figure out how to deal with this issue.”
Still, abortion may not be enough for Biden
Lifelong Democrat and Johnstown, Pennsylvania resident Linda James said she’s concerned messaging on abortion will not be enough and that she thinks the president will also need to address voters’ other top concerns.
“He keeps saying the economy is great,” James, 69, said. “It’s the best in the world. And that’s true. But when you sit down to pay your bills at the end of the month, and your personal economy is not as good as it was under Trump, I think some people are nostalgic for the economy that they had prior to the pandemic.”
“There’s no recognition of that from the Biden campaign,” she added. “And that makes me crazy when I hear him talk about how great our economy is, when I have a nephew who wants to buy a house, and he can’t afford it.”
Though talk of abortion is important for Biden’s campaign, McGovern said it will be more important for the president to highlight other accomplishments.
“I think Biden actually deserves some credit for some of his economic policies,” McGovern said. “And he’s done a fairly poor job of talking about some of the things that he’s doing on that score.”
Turnout, voters’ motivation to decide 2024
In an election that could hinge entirely on turnout, McGovern said he sees a lack of enthusiasm from certain core voting blocs, including students he interacts with as a college professor.
“Their level of disenchantment is so high that they really may sit out the election in November, notwithstanding the fact that they disagree with Trump on so many other issues,” he said. “But they’re so angry with Biden, they just may stay home.”
Young voters’ resentment includes the president’s handling of the Israel-Hamas war, as well as issues like climate change and a general distaste for Biden’s age, McGovern said.
Abortion could be key for energizing Biden’s base and getting that much needed swing state turnout, Klar said.
“We have these unbelievably close elections in Arizona. Biden just barely eked out a victory in 2020,” she said. “Anything could make a difference when we’re talking about an election that’s this close. But something like abortion, obviously, is going to play a big role.”
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Abortion could help Biden campaign in Pennsylvania, Arizona
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