Verdict on fading premiership contenders, biggest issue, analysis, GWS Giants, Carlton Blues, Geelong Cats, Melbourne Demons – MASHAHER

There’s four AFL contenders – or at least, we thought were contenders – sliding.

After promising starts to the 2024 season, GWS, Carlton, Geelong and Melbourne have all dropped off in recent weeks. To now not only be at risk of missing the top four, but missing the finals altogether amid such a tight premiership race.

Below foxfooty.com.au has unpacked the aforementioned teams’ biggest issues – and the verdict on whether they can surge again.

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GWS GIANTS (6th, 6-4 (115.5%)

The Giants’ slide is perhaps the most perplexing.

Seen as one of the bona fide flag frontrunners in the early rounds including a dominant 5-0 start, GWS has since dropped four of its last five games.

During that span, Adam Kingsley’s side has looked more like a bottom four team than a top four team including its scoring drying up – with totals of 43, 62 and 69 over the last three weeks.

It left triple-premiership Lion Jonathan Brown to declare on Fox Footy the Giants looked “vanilla” and “flat,” saying “there’s no tsunami in sight.”

Opposition teams locking down on Lachie Whitfield has been crucial to that, but even on the weekend when he ran free, the Giants produced their lowest score of the season.

It left dual premiership Kangaroo David King to ponder whether the Giants have “overreacted” and are “playing too safe” instead of their usual attacking, corridor style.

“Five scores from turnover (against the Dogs) – that’s their worst result in six years,” King said on Fox Footy’s The First Crack.

“They’re a corridor team … if you’re going to be that team, be that team. Die a death playing with your personality.

“I think they’ve lost their bravery, they’ve got to get it back and get their dare and flare going again. Maybe it needs Whitfield to go into the middle to spark a shift?”

Last week’s fixture difficulty rating: 11th hardest (101.5%)

Verdict: Still a contender/challenger for top four

CARLTON (10th, 6-4, 102.1%)

Many predicted the Blues were on an undeniable upward trajectory after their preliminary final run last year.

That was the case early in the season, with Carlton starting 4-0 out of the gates. But even in those games, the Blues weren’t exactly firing on all cylinders including narrow wins over Brisbane, Richmond and Fremantle.

Having dropped three of its last four – and nearly falling to Melbourne at the death – to slide down to 10th position, problems hav emerged.

They’ve mainly been in the defensive part of the ground, where Carlton ranked 17th in the league in points conceded from Rounds 5-9 – behind only North Melbourne.

Of course, the Blues have been in this position before. This time last year, they sat 10th on the ladder – and dropped even lower – before making that huge run in the second half of the season all the way to a prelim final.

“There’s concerns, but there’s still plenty of time to turn it around. We trust Michael Voss because he’s done it before,” dual All-Australian Leigh Montagna said on The First Crack.

“Their defence is falling apart at the moment. I’ve got faith, because they know what to do. When they get some personnel back and button down, I reckon they’ll get there by the back-end of the year.”

Last week’s fixture difficulty rating: 18th hardest (92.3%)

Verdict: Still a contender/challenger for top four

GEELONG (3rd, 7-3, 112.1%)

An unlikely big riser this year, so it’s easier to make sense of the Cats’ decline.

Still, Geelong occupied a top two spot for the majority of the season to date – and still sits third, so there’s not yet major cause for concern. But they’ve looked much more vulnerable in recent times.

That was laid bare in a 64-point loss to Gold Coast in Darwin, where Chris Scott’s side was uncharacteristically torn apart.

The big concern for Geelong going into this season was its shallow midfield – a midfield that’s currently without Patrick Dangerfield and had no Cam Guthrie for a key chunk.

Without the duo, it’s an inexperienced group and certainly a ways off the best midfields in the competition.

“I’ve got an issue with their midfield, it is a concern now. At the start of the year they were doing a pretty good job of being competitive. But the last three or four weeks, there’s a real trend emerging,” Montagna said on The First Crack.

“They conceded 61 points from stoppage (against the Suns) and allowed over 110 possessions from Rowell, Anderson and Miller … (they conceded) 49 points from stoppage against Port Adelaide and Horne-Francis, Wines and Butters ran amok. A couple of weeks before that against Carton they conceded 69 points from stoppage and Walsh, Cripps and Hewett ran amok.

“They’ve got to change it up and do something about this because it’s getting away from them.”

Montagna called for Max Holmes, who’s ranked 12th in centre bounce attended at Geelong with an average of less than four per game, to move from half back into the centre to provide a spark.

“I think it’s time to give the keys to Max Holmes, if he’s as good as they say internally,” he said.

“He’s having a really good year across half back, but he’s got to go into the midfield now … he’s got the X-factor and ability to create a threat. Because at the moment without Dangerfield, there is no threat whatsoever in that midfield.”

King meanwhile thinks the Cats’ “problems are deeper,” questioning their defence after being “insipid in one-on-ones” against Gold Coast.

“They lost eight of 18 defensive one-on-ones. They’ve only lost more than eight one-on-one three times in Chris Scott’s 318 games, that’s how poor a night it was behind the ball,” he said.

“In (wet) conditions like that, you would’ve thought they would’ve been more dominant and stronger with bigger bodies. They failed the test. I can’t wait to watch the next couple of weeks to see if this is an event of trend.”

Last week’s fixture difficulty rating: 17th hardest (93.6%)

Verdict: More a 5-8 team

MELBOURNE (7th, 6-4, 113.1%)

Do the Dees need to change their method back to what’s worked in the past?

Having made the top four in each of the last three seasons (even if they’ve gone out of finals in straight sets the last two years), it’s been a proven, defensive-orientated system under Simon Goodwin.

But in a bid to score more efficiently, Melbourne has moved away from that this year to try and play a quicker brand with more slingshot from halfback and faster attacking entries.

The Dees haven’t been that far off the mark, currently sitting seventh on the ladder. However a 35-point loss to West Coast was un-Melbourne like and perhaps best showed Goodwin’s revised system needs to be tweaked.

“I know they’re trying a new ball movement model. (Against West Coast) Out of the back half they had 47 chances to start with the footy for two points on intercept – that’s just not them,” King said.

“I wonder how long you can continue down this path before you revert back to what you’ve always done, which has worked for them so successfully.

“OK, it’s failed by a point, a goal (in previous finals) … but I feel like that is them.

“Something has to change, I think there will have to be a powwow at Melbourne: ‘Can we continue to play this way with these opportunities ball in hand?’”

Montgana suggested Melbourne could “pull it back” slightly to what’s worked in the past, but still thinks it needs to evolve overall.

“They’ve got some question marks like a lot of these contenders,” he concluded.

Last week’s fixture difficulty rating: 8th hardest (92.3%)

Verdict: More a 5-8 team