Power Rankings after Round 10, analysis, every club ranked, flag favourites, ladder, predictions, fixture – MASHAHER

Welcome back to the Power Rankings.

Try it yourself – after Sydney, and probably Collingwood second, who’s the next-best team in the AFL right now?

What are the Power Rankings? This is our attempt to rank every AFL club from best to worst. We take wins and losses into account, but also the quality of opposition faced and whether teams are likely to get healthier and/or improve going forward. It’s a little bit ‘who’s hot and who’s not’; part predictive, part analysis of what’s happened. If Team A is above Team B, we’d probably tip A to win if they were playing at a neutral venue this weekend.

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All times AEST.

1. SYDNEY SWANS (9-1, 154.7%)

Last week: Ranked 1st, def Carlton by 52 pts

Swans fans are probably still asking where all the attention for their team is – and fair enough, because in an otherwise even season they look like the clear No.1 team. There’s an argument to be made that you don’t want to be the No.1 team after 10 rounds though; in the last 10 seasons just two teams who were on top of the ladder at this stage have won the flag, Collingwood (2023) and West Coast (2018). And as for the lack of attention? Well, a quick little comment about the media – both writers and readers want drama. So the AFL commentariat is always paying attention to whatever the most dramatic thing from the weekend was; whether that’s an upset win, or a team out of form, or whatever. Being good and then still being good isn’t dramatic, so another great win for the Swans (especially when it happens before the weekend, so everyone has moved on to other topics) just isn’t going to get the headlines. Plus there’s nothing wrong with flying under the radar. Although we expect the Swans aren’t flying under the radar for the rest of the comp, so they’ll get quite a few challenges over the second half of the season as teams try to produce their best against the No.1 contender.

This week: Western Bulldogs at Marvel Stadium, Thursday 7:30pm

2. COLLINGWOOD (6-3-1, 107.8%)

Last week: Ranked 3rd, def Adelaide by 4 pts

It’s not like barely beating the Crows at the MCG is a massively impressive result, but it was another tick for the Magpies proving their game is back. Having led the AFL in points from halfback in 2023, they are second since Round 6 – they were all the way down in 16th from the start of the year until Round 5. Spinning the Jack Crisp magnet back into the midfield has worked wonders, and then you’ve got the oddity of Nick Daicos having what seemed like an incredible game against Adelaide but kinda wasn’t? Sure, he had 41 disposals, 22 contested possessions and 14 clearances – the latter two career-highs, proving he’s nothing like the outside-only player some critics claim he is. But he also went at a woeful 29% kicking efficiency, meaning it was the worst game of his career according to the AFL Player Ratings. Stats can lie, it turns out, if you use them incorrectly.

This week: Fremantle at Optus Stadium, Friday 8:10pm

3. ESSENDON (7-2-1, 103.3%)

Last week: Ranked 6th, def North Melbourne by 40 pts

We don’t actually think the Bombers are the third-most likely to win the flag, or anything like that. But who the hell do you put third this week if not them? Melbourne and Geelong lost. Carlton and GWS are sliding. Port nearly lost to Hawthorn. Brisbane and the Bulldogs don’t have a winning record. So while long-time readers know we care more about the underlying numbers than a team’s win-loss record, we have to respect the results. The Bombers keep banking wins – and not in the same way they did late last year, when they nearly lost to a horrible West Coast and a horrible North. We’ve seen over the last three weeks the growth in this team, winning a tricky road test against a much-improved Eagles side (Melbourne just got comfortably beaten over there, remember) and showing maturity in pulling away from a brave Kangaroos outfit. The Bombers are at the very least good, and they’re gonna spend quite a bit of time in the top four on the ladder. We need a lot more data to believe in them as a proper contender.

This week: Richmond at the MCG, Saturday 7:40pm

4. MELBOURNE (6-4, 113.1%)

Last week: Ranked 2nd, def West Coast by 35 pts

Perhaps our sustained faith – to the extent that we’re keeping them in the top four – is unreasonable. After all their only impressive win over the past two months was over a Richmond side who have since looked horrendous; they narrowly beat Geelong, Port and Adelaide, but really their only convincing result over a contender all season was against the Bulldogs in Round 1. And your mileage will vary on whether the Bulldogs are a contender. They have been trying to change their game style but it isn’t really working and, bizarrely, the midfield has been a problem – why are they getting beaten by a Yeo-less West Coast? We still think the Demons’ floor is high enough that they can compete against pretty much everyone, even if they’re gonna have bad nights (and they’re almost always nights). They certainly had better beat St Kilda.

This week: St Kilda at the MCG, Sunday 3:20pm

5. PORT ADELAIDE (7-3, 111.1%)

Last week: Ranked 8th, def Hawthorn by 1 pt

Beating Hawthorn at home by the absolute barest of margins in a ridiculous comeback that never should’ve happened isn’t why they moved up three spots. It’s more about the context around them and the unimpressive nature of so many fellow finals contenders’ performances. That’s not to say the comeback wasn’t impressive – you don’t often win the contested possessions by 21 and the inside 50s by 19 in the space of a quarter. They came home with a fittingly wet sail and you could see the relief on Ken Hinkley’s face on the siren; those four points will prove critical in a tight top-eight race. After all they would’ve been 9th on the ladder with a loss; instead they’re fourth.

This week: North Melbourne at Blundstone Arena, Saturday 1:45pm

6. GEELONG (7-3, 112.1%)

Last week: Ranked 4th, lost to Gold Coast by 64 pts

On one hand, that loss to the Suns was clearly a freak result in numerous ways. They didn’t enjoy the conditions (while their opponents both suited and had experience with them), they were severely understrength and things got out of hand late. It will almost certainly be Geelong’s worst game of the year. But at the same time, that’s three straight losses and they look nowhere near as defensively sound as we saw over their opening seven games. They are a bottom three side in points against from turnovers and scores per inside 50 against over the last month; that is not sustainable for a top eight contender, never mind a top-four contender. They should win most home games, so they certainly should beat a similarly out-of-form GWS side on Saturday… but it’s the battle of the should-be-betters.

This week: GWS Giants at GMHBA Stadium, Saturday 4:35pm

7. BRISBANE LIONS (4-5-1, 116.6%)

Last week: Ranked 9th, def Richmond by 119 pts

We’re not taking much out of Saturday night against the Tigers (or what was left of them). Still, the percentage boost was nice, if only relevant against a few teams. And it was a nice chance to shake off the cobwebs from the early season home losses; they should have their confidence back at this point. They’re still not the version of Brisbane that made a Grand Final, not with their injuries, but they’re definitely good enough to challenge most teams – and beat them at their best. Let’s hope they don’t stumble again against the Hawks, because then they get the bye then a fascinating Friday night road trip to face the Dogs (who are similarly dangerous yet outside the eight), then St Kilda at home. A 7-5-1 record is well within reach, from which point you only need to split your remaining games 5-5 to probably play finals. Don’t count them out.

This week: Hawthorn at Marvel Stadium, Sunday 1:10pm

8. FREMANTLE (6-4, 111.8%)

Last week: Ranked 10th, def St Kilda by 17 pts

They’re not going to kick 11.33 over a two-week block again – they just won’t. The Dockers’ utterly bizarre inaccuracy, which has them something like 12 goals under their expected score over the last fortnight, has disguised a very solid block of form. They were much closer to Sydney than the margin suggested and controlled the game against St Kilda, pulling away late for the deserved win. Want a reason why they’ve been so wayward? They haven’t recorded a single shot from 0-15 metres out over the last two weeks. No goals out the back here! They will remember where the big sticks are soon – we reckon in time to beat the high-flying Pies and announce themselves again as a threat on the Friday night stage.

This week: Collingwood at Optus Stadium, Friday 8:10pm

9. WESTERN BULLDOGS (5-5, 126.1%)

Last week: Ranked 11th, def GWS by 27 pts

Are the Bulldogs actually good? Their percentage being second-best is a bit of a mirage, pumped up by a few massive wins – their average winning margin is a staggering 60 points and should be even higher after kicking 8.22 against GWS. But we always say big wins are the sign of a great team, and while the Giants aren’t flying right now, it was still very comfortable and easily the Dogs’ most impressive win of the season. Some of the footy nerds we follow have the Bulldogs as a top-four team right now; we’re not willing to go that far because we can’t trust them against the top teams. Speaking of the top teams… look, there would be no shame in losing to Sydney. But if the Dogs win on Thursday night, and everyone starts talking about them as a threat, just remember that we flagged it first.

This week: Sydney Swans at Marvel Stadium, Thursday 7:30pm

10. CARLTON (6-4, 102.1%)

Last week: Ranked 5th, lost to Sydney by 52 pts

The Blues are fine. We also had to put them 10th this week, because the race for the eight is really, really open. The Sydney loss was their first properly bad one for the year – and yes, they’ve lost three of their last four, but they’ve had a bloody tough run. The most important thing is getting players back; like with Richmond we cannot underestimate the impact of injuries, especially with the lack of options at certain positions meaning they can’t play the way they should be. And the draw over the next month isn’t great; after the Suns, they get Port away, then Essendon and Geelong at the MCG. But things seriously open up after their bye so we think it’s very likely they’re going to storm home – six games between Rounds 16 and 24 are against bottom-ten teams – and head into September with lots of momentum.

This week: Gold Coast Suns at Marvel Stadium, Saturday 1:45pm

11. GWS GIANTS (6-4, 115.5%)

Last week: Ranked 7th, lost to Western Bulldogs by 27 pts

This may seem a severe fall for a team being talked up as a premiership contender just a few weeks ago, but the Giants are seriously pedestrian right now. That margin against the Dogs should have been much larger and the difference between the Giants of the opening six weeks, and the five since, is stark. They’ve gone from 1st to 13th in points scored; 2nd to 10th in scores per inside 50; 1st to 11th in points from turnovers; and 1st to 15th in transitioning from their back half to inside 50. That latter one is the key – it is the orange tsunami totally disappearing. Combine that with their defensive decline we wrote about last week and GWS, right now, is a bang-average team at best. We know they can play much better than this, so maybe it’s just a long lapse, but this is a big enough sample size to start being concerned.

This week: Geelong at GMHBA Stadium, Saturday 4:35pm

12. ADELAIDE CROWS (3-6-1, 100.9%)

Last week: Ranked 12th, lost to Collingwood by 4 pts

Well, the Crows really are back in 2023 form, because they copped a heartbreaking loss to Collingwood decided by a kick with a controversial late umpiring call involved. Three wins out of the eight, it’s going to be difficult to recover and play finals… but they’re about to go on a run, and we are certain they’re good enough. Not good enough to contend for the flag, but Adelaide can absolutely beat most teams on their day – heck they almost beat one of the most in-form teams in the comp away on the weekend. With West Coast, Hawthorn and Richmond over the next three weeks, they should be 6-6-1, and looking at their run home they can certainly get to 12 and a half wins. But everything would need to go right and we know how tricky a position that can be.

This week: West Coast Eagles at Adelaide Oval, Sunday 4:40pm

13. GOLD COAST SUNS (6-4, 112.7%)

Last week: Ranked 13th, def Geelong by 64 pts

It would be very reasonable to ask why Gold Coast isn’t higher. As always we would respond with ‘which team would you have below them?’, because one amazing game in unusual conditions against a contender well below its best doesn’t prove to us that the Suns are ready to make the eight. They’re still in the mix and this is where their season gets interesting – because they either have to keep beating good teams at home, or keep winning away, to play finals. They’ve got Essendon, Collingwood, Port Adelaide, Brisbane and Melbourne left at home; all winnable if they’re at their best but clearly loseable games. Their much more beatable opponents, like St Kilda, North Melbourne, West Coast and Richmond all have to be played away, making those games just that much more difficult. So there’s a path to September here, no doubt; it’s just a path they haven’t gone down before. They are the last team in this ranking we can realistically see making the eight.

This week: Carlton at Marvel Stadium, Saturday 1:45pm

14. WEST COAST EAGLES (3-7, 77.1%)

Last week: Ranked 16th, def Melbourne by 35 pts

We can’t say we thought we’d have West Coast out of our bottom four even six weeks ago. But they have genuinely become a threatening side again at home, meaning teams who have to make the trip to Optus Stadium will be rueing the fact they don’t get the Eagles at home. Heck, Adam Simpson’s side might be 5-8 pretty soon, as after travelling to face Adelaide they get St Kilda and North Melbourne at home. We would have to write about their slim finals chances in The Run Home at that point! Throw in Hawthorn and Gold Coast making the trip west and there’s a seven or eight-win season available here. Whether that’s the best thing for their future is another matter.

This week: Adelaide Crows at Adelaide Oval, Sunday 4:40pm

15. HAWTHORN (3-7, 78.6%)

Last week: Ranked 15th, lost to Port Adelaide by 1 pt

As Sam Mitchell mentioned in his post-match press conference, it’s hard to look at the positives of a result like Sunday’s when it’s so bloody painful. In a way, of course, that loss was the best result for the club long-term – you want as high a draft pick as possible while also showing as much as possible. And the Hawks showed a hell of a lot against Port, dominating all facets of the game for three quarters before they shut up shop far too early. It’s been a common sight this year; think Port Adelaide nearly losing to Geelong, and Carlton nearly losing to Melbourne. But you can still take a lot from the game, including Blake Hardwick making a hell of a lot of sense as a forward (especially when he’s playing in Adelaide, apparently). The midfield too is improving; over the last five weeks they’re the No.1 team in the AFL for post clearance contested possessions and groundballs, which is a critical facet of the game.

This week: Brisbane Lions at Marvel Stadium, Sunday 1:10pm

16. ST KILDA (3-7, 94.1%)

Last week: Ranked 14th, lost to Fremantle by 17 pts

Yuck. That’s the only word we can use to describe this Saints season. Yuck. Since that brilliant win over Collingwood at the MCG, which had everyone excited for their youth and exuberance, they’ve won just twice – over the inarguable two worst teams in the competition, Richmond and North Melbourne. It’s like they’re speedrunning the Ross Lyon experience because last year was a great defence carrying a pedestrian offence into the finals (like plenty of Saints seasons and the early Freo years), while this year is an OK defence plus a woeful offence dragging them down (like the late Freo years). It’s never a good sign when the conversation around one of last year’s finalists is purely about who they can trade for at Round 10…

This week: Melbourne at the MCG, Sunday 3:20pm

17. RICHMOND (1-9, 59.6%)

Last week: Ranked 17th, lost to Brisbane by 119 pts

The only reason the Tigers aren’t 18th, after losing two games by a combined 200+ points, is that these results are completely unreflective of their true talent level. They are an OK to mediocre team when fully fit, as we saw with the upset of Sydney and competitive losses to the likes of Carlton and Port Adelaide, who is nowhere close to fully fit. Their injury plague is genuinely at West Coast levels and while we completely understand why the rest of the footy media is having a go at the players and/or coach, because we want to find a reason for why they’re playing so bad, sometimes it’s really simple. Look how much better West Coast is with a fit list right now! Injuries really, really matter and they are why the Tigers will likely get pumped on Saturday night. Heck if both Richmond and Essendon were fully fit it might be a close game, that’s how close we’d rate the lists. The reality is simply very different.

This week: Essendon at the MCG, Saturday 7:40pm

18. NORTH MELBOURNE (0-10, 56.8%)

Last week: Ranked 18th, lost to Essendon by 40 pts

With how low the Kangaroos sit at the moment, all we can ask for are signs of growth. We got that on Sunday, with a genuinely very good midfield performance against a strong opposing group from Essendon. At stoppages the Roos had season-highs in hitouts to advantage (+6) and clearances (+14), while it was the second-best they’ve done all year controlling the footy, with +22 uncontested possessions and 108 uncontested marks. And they haven’t often been competitive for a full half, which they were. Again, it’s something.

This week: Port Adelaide at Blundstone Arena, Saturday 1:45pm