Made up of a dash of experience, a dollop of knowledge and a scoop of guesswork, political predictions are for suckers and I am no sucker. So instead, I make guarantees. My latest can’t-possibly-be-wrong, take-it-to-the-bank guarantee? Donald Trump will win in 2024 and there is nothing you can do to stop him. In fact, he will win twice.
Here’s my case: Good news travels fast and bad news travels faster. No one excels at leveraging and manipulating this environment better than Trump. Say it faster than the other side, with more conviction and confidence than Muhammad Ali in his heyday, and half the country will buy what’s being sold.
When good news arrives, Trump rallies the faithful ‘round the flag and equates his victory to a historical figure or event, say, Nelson Mandela or storming the beach at Normandy. When the news is less than rosy, he pounces like a puma and spits in the face of defeat to spin a self-gratifying tale of victory without shame. Unlike the stock market, past performance does in this case predict future results.
We will next see this play out in the coming days as Trump, whether acquitted or convicted by a jury of his peers in his New York criminal trial, wins in the courtroom.
Trump’s verdict is coming. But judge him on the horrible things he’s doing right now.
Trump will win, win or lose
The best-case scenario – acquittal – would be portrayed by Trump as sweet, sweet vindication against every harsh word that has ever been said about him. Every accusation, every indictment, all the cases yet to be tried, would be washed away. If this one is wrong, they must all be wrong. Right? No? Maybe?
A conviction, on the other hand, rather than serving as vindication of what has been said about and done to him, would be validation of what he’s been saying about others. It would prove, just like he said from behind the court’s bike rack twice a day, every day (except Wednesdays) that the judge was conflicted, the jurors tainted by ideology and the outcome preordained by a U.S. Department of Justice weaponizing its prosecutorial authority to damage a political opponent amid a campaign.
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Even a jail sentence is a win. What image could better validate Trump’s insistence of this being a sham trial run by a kangaroo court than serving time in jail? A jumpsuit did wonders for Martha Stewart and it would do wonders for Trump, too.
His second guaranteed win will come in November. Do I know that Trump will have the most Electoral College votes when the race is called? Not at all. But I do know he’s going to win so bigly that I can see it from here in May.
Trump’s next win will follow the 2024 election
Like acquittal in court, capturing the Electoral College and re-residing in the White House would be vindication. It would vindicate those who fervently believe Joe Biden is an illegitimate president and Trump has been the rightful president this whole time.
Think that’s far-fetched? Why else has Trump’s campaign referred to him as “the president” and Joe Biden as simply “Joe Biden” in statements and correspondence?
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The inverse outcome, in which Trump’s third Oval Office quest falls short, would to an objective observer be a loss. But not for Trump. This would be a huge win − on par with actually winning − for it brings validation.
Close your eyes and you can hear it now: the process is rigged, our institutions are failing us, the world is out to get Trump and by extension you. Validated. Validated. Validated.
In closing, ladies and gentlemen of the jury, remorse and reflection are the antithesis of the Trump code. He is, after all, a winner and winners never apologize for being winners. They just keep on winning even when they lose.
So when the verdict is read and Trump’s face displays a grimace or a grin, know that behind that grimace is a grin and behind that grin a bigger grin because Trump knows he already won.
Pete Seat is a former White House spokesman for President George W. Bush and campaign spokesman for former Director of National Intelligence and U.S. Sen. Dan Coats. Currently, he is a vice president with Bose Public Affairs Group in Indianapolis. He is also an Atlantic Council Millennium Fellow, a term member of the Council on Foreign Relations and author of “The War on Millennials.“
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This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Will Trump be convicted? Guilty or not, he still wins
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