Public believes Tories are more likely to raise taxes than Labour, poll finds

The public thinks the Conservatives are more likely to raise taxes than Labour, according to fresh polling shared with Sky News.

The research from Savanta – carried out before the issue dominated the first TV debate on Tuesday night – found members of the public are most likely to say they do not believe pledges from the Tories or Labour that they won’t raise taxes.

Asked between 31 May and 2 June who they believed on promises not to raise major taxes – income tax, national insurance and VAT – 41% of respondents said: “I don’t believe either of them.”

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However, the online survey of 2,217 UK adults aged 18 and above found that just one in six believes Rishi Sunak won’t raise major taxes, compared with one in four for Sir Keir Starmer.

It comes after tax dominated the first TV debate between Mr Sunak and Sir Keir last night, with the former attempting to make it a key dividing line with the Labour leader ahead of polling day on 4 July.

Mr Sunak claimed multiple times during the debate that Labour’s plans for the country were not costed and would require annual tax rises of £2,000 per family – something Sir Keir refuted as “absolute garbage”.

The prime minister said there would be a £38.5bn black hole to fill over four years, a figure he said was arrived at by the workings of impartial civil servants.

Labour has said the costings relied on “assumptions from special advisers” appointed by the prime minister rather than an impartial Civil Service assessment.

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On Wednesday a note from the Treasury’s chief civil servant also emerged which said civil servants were not involved in the calculation of the total figure.

In the letter to Darren Jones, Labour’s shadow chief secretary to the Treasury, James Bowler said he had reminded ministers not to present any costings as having been produced by civil servants and that the £38.5bn cited by the Tories “includes costs beyond those provided by the Civil Service”.

“Costings derived from other sources or produced by other organisations should not be presented as having been produced by the Civil Service,” he said in the letter dated 3 June.

The Savanta poll also found that those aged over 55 were the most likely age group to say they did not believe either of the major parties on their pledges not to carry out tax hikes – a key voting bloc for Conservatives.

Chris Hopkins, political research director at Savanta, told Sky News: “Rishi Sunak has sought to make tax rises a key dividing line at this election, including during the first televised debate.

“His problem is that while he and Keir Starmer have made the same promises to not raise taxes, the public are actually less likely to believe the Conservatives than the Labour Party.

“It’s clear that older people are considered crucial for the Conservatives this election, and they’re more likely than any other age group to say they don’t believe either party’s promises on tax.

“That’s not good for Starmer, but it’s worse for Sunak and likely speaks to voters’ wider cynicism during this campaign.”