Robert F. Kennedy Jr. narrowly helps President Biden and hurts former President Trump’s chances at winning the White House in key battleground states, a new survey finds.
Polling from Mainstreet Research, PolCom Lab and Florida Atlantic University showed Trump with a slight lead over Biden in a head-to-head race in both Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. But when Kennedy is added to the mix, Biden takes the lead in both states, according to the poll.
Kennedy, an independent candidate, is not currently on the ballot in either state, which along with Michigan are seen as crucial to Biden’s hopes for re-election.
In Biden’s home state of Pennsylvania, the president is trailing Trump 43 percent to 45 percent head-to head. But he leads 41 percent to Trump’s 39 percent, when Kennedy is a choice and pulls in 8 percent.
In Wisconsin, a top target for Democrats, Trump edges out Biden 41 percent to 40 percent in a two-person race, but Biden takes a seven point lead, 38 percent to 31 percent, when Kennedy is a third option, taking 13 percent.
Another notable swing state, Michigan, shows Biden at 41 percent, Trump at 39 and Kennedy at 11 percent of support. Both Trump and Biden are at 45 percent without Kennedy in the race.
The survey sampled 2,068 voters in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan between May 30 and May 31.
Democrats and Republicans are each fearful that Kennedy will harm their chances of success in November. Conventional wisdom from both sides had been that the environmental lawyer blunts Biden more than Trump, though that theory has softened in recent weeks.
Pollsters and operatives monitoring the third-party dynamic believe the race is highly fluid, with Kennedy being an unpredictable element in the fall. They note his voter base is harder to identify for a variety of reasons, including his strength with younger and independent voters who tend to be more volatile.
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