Modi factor diminished but far from finished: Preeti Choudhry’s 10 takeaways – MASHAHER

Here are 10 takeaways from the Lok Sabha elections:

• The election results have showed that the common man, even with the most meagre means, will not tolerate if they are being taken for granted. The ‘400 paar’ slogan turned out to be BJP’s bugbear.

• There was considerable angst among the poor ‘labharti’ and they were not just satiated by 5 kilos of free ration any more. ‘Ration nahin rozgar’ was the echo across eastern Uttar Pradesh.

• The Modi factor, which propelled the BJP to massive wins in 2014 and 2019, is diminished but far from finished. Narendra Modi is still a strong draw among many voters. A local farmer in Rajasthan said, “Naraz hain par gaddar nahin (I am angry but won’t betray Modi).”

• While women vote differently than men, women also vote differently than other women. The elections showed that assuming schemes like direct cash transfers or other women-centric SOPS would attract women en masse is wrong. What worked for Mamata Banerjee didn’t work for Arvind Kejriwal or Jagan Mohan Reddy. Voting preferences of women were very different, from Bengal to Madhya Pradesh to Haryana to the different regions of UP.

• This was a 543-seat election and not a ‘general’ election as there was no single narrative that stuck with the voters. Different constituencies had different local issues.

• The youth has had its share of polarising religion-centric politics. ‘Hindu-muslim’ nahin hona chahiye was the refrain among several young voters.

• The polls saw the emergence of new caste combinations across the Hindi heartland. In Haryana, Dalits and Jats have voted alongside for the first time post the era of former Chief Minister Devi Lal. In east Rajasthan, the Jats-Meena-Gujjar combine was last seen in 2018. In Uttar Pradesh, the Dalits voting alongside Yadavs was a first.

• Uttar Pradesh saw the rise of new Dalit politics. While Chandrashekhar Azad won from the Dalit-dominated Nagina seat, the BSP failed to open its account and there was loss of credibility for Mayawati, viewed as the B team of BJP even by its core voters. Are we looking at a new Dalit order of Dalit assertion in the state?

• The resonance of the Constitution or samvidhaan was felt in several regions. If the slogan of ‘samvidhan bachana hai’ was heard in a Dalit village of Saharanpur in Uttar Pradesh, then it was ‘Save the Constitution, Save Democracy’ in a plush coffee shop in Kolkata.

• This time, kamandal politics got the better of mandal politics. While Ram Mandir did resonate in states like Madhya Pradesh, in Uttar Pradesh caste politics trumped over mandir politics. Even in the Lok Sabha seat of Faizabad, which the Samajwadi Party won, the slogan heard was “Na Mathura, na Kashi, Ayodhya mein passi”.