The NASCAR Cup Series heads West to turn left and right at Sonoma Raceway for the Toyota/SaveMart 350 on Sunday (3:30 p.m. ET on FOX). This 1.99-mile road course underwent a repave in the offseason that may present an additional challenge for drivers as it is now a much slicker racetrack.
Defending winner Martin Truex Jr. (+550) is the favorite at DraftKings, and the books are predicting a chalky outcome with six more drivers priced at +850 or shorter. I am looking further down the board for value this weekend, so here is who I like pre-practice and qualifying for the Toyota/SaveMart 350 (Odds as of Thursday, June 6).
Chris Buescher to Win (+1400)
Buescher has cooled off in the midst of his teammate, Brad Keselowski’s, surge over this last stretch of races, and the No. 17 has just one Top 10 finish in his last eight races. However, Sonoma has been an exceptional track for Buescher, particularly in the Next Gen car. Since 2022, Buescher paces the field in average finish, driver rating and average running position. He also has the second-best average finish across all road courses run dating back to last season.
He finished a respectable eighth at COTA earlier this year, but RFK Racing as a whole has shown vast improvement since then. +1400 is about as far down as I would go for Buescher to win, which is available on DraftKings.
Denny Hamlin to Win (+2000)
The books are quick to forget that Hamlin led 33 laps of this race from the pole before crashing out late last year. He enters the weekend with five-straight Top Five finishes and should be a threat to win in wine country. Though Sonoma has not been Hamlin’s best track by average finish, he ranks fourth in total speed (via ifantasyrace.com) and owns the ninth-best average running position since 2022.
His positional props are worth a look as well, both to finish Top Five (+250) and to finish Top 10 (-110) on DraftKings. This number will not be available come Sunday, and it might just be my favorite outright price for a driver at this point in the week.
Kyle Busch to finish Top 10 (+140)
After last week’s incident with Kyle Larson at WWT Raceway, Busch now finds himself on the outside looking in at the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs. In looking at Sonoma, Busch finished runner-up last year and has finished inside of the Top 10 in seven of the last eight. Road courses have been a strong suit for Busch in the Next Gen car, with four Top 10s dating back to last season.
He is not going to go quietly understanding the points position his team is in. +140 is available on bet365, and I would play this down to +120.
Chase Elliott to finish Top Five (+155)
Elliott’s average finish of 9.8 is the best among the Cup Series through 15 races, and I am betting on the 7-time road course winner to score a Top Five this weekend. He has led laps in the last four Sonoma races and has finished inside of the Top Five in two of the last three.
Elliott was tracking towards a Top Five finish at COTA earlier this year before a penalty hurt his chances, and while Victory Lane has eluded him on a road course for some time now, he remains one of the most consistent in the field on this type of track. I think the price is fair for the No. 9 to cash this prop, and I am on it over at bet365.
Enjoy the racing in Sonoma.
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