Between 8 and 10 inches of rain may fall in northern Sarasota County from June 10 to 15, with a possibility of more than 10 inches near North Port and Venice, according to the National Weather Service in Ruskin.
Though some flooding may be possible, the downpours could help ease a severe drought that resulted from an especially dry May.
“It’s not going to all happen in one day but each day there’s going to be widespread storms and thundershowers,” said Ross Giarratana, a weather service forecaster.
“With each successive day, there may be some minor flooding concerns; we should start off the week being able to handle the rainfall well.”
Some portions of Sarasota and Manatee counties experienced downpours of varied intensity Monday morning.
Rain totals could increase farther south and east, with rainfall in Punta Gorda projected in the 10-12 inch range.
While the weather services rated the Tampa Bay area at marginal risk of excessive rainfall on Wednesday, that outlook does not extend to Manatee and Sarasota counties.
How likely are we to see a tropical system develop?
The National Hurricane Center is tracking four tropical waves Monday, according to the latest tropical outlook.
No tropical cyclone development is expected over the next two days.
“There’s nothing in the immediate term; we don’t have any expectation in the next several days that a tropical system is going to develop,”” Giarratana said.
Some of the current moisture is coming from the Caribbean and may have its origin in a tropical disturbance in Central America, he added.
Will the severe drought soon be over?
Charlotte, Manatee and Sarasota counties are still experiencing severe drought conditions, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. The most recent map, which was released online June 6, reflects conditions as of June 4.
Giarratana said the projected rainfall will put a dent in the drought conditions and there’s a potential all or part of the area could no longer be considered as suffering a drought, “given the fact that we’ll have several days of very efficient rainfall − at times very, very heavy tropical downpours −but we’re really not going to know that until the weekend.”
The National Weather Service only recorded 0.02 inches in the month of May at Sarasota Bradenton International Airport.
Through June 9, the NWS had not recorded any rainfall at Sarasota Bradenton International Airport for the current month.
Giarratana said there may be equipment issues for that. Readings for June 3 and June 5 were not available, and the NWS is also in the process of moving the location of its rain gauges at the airport.
Through June 9, a total of 0.36 inches of rain was reported at the Venice Water Treatment Plant; and 0.32 inches at Punta Gorda Airport, which is 2.07 inches below normal.
Because of the dry weather in May, Sarasota and Manatee counties, as well as area municipalities enacted burn bans.
Currently Sarasota and Manatee rank in the 650-699 range on the Keetch-Byram drought index, a continuous reference for soil dryness on a scale of 0-800.
USA Today Network Digital Producer Cheryl McCloud also contributed to this report.
This article originally appeared on Sarasota Herald-Tribune: Tropical development not expect from rainy system affecting Sarasota
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