The night sky over Crimea flashed with explosions and tracer fire as the barrage of American-made missiles arrived and found their targets.
In a matter of minutes, three Russian surface-to-air missile systems that were supposed to be protecting the peninsula had been knocked out in the latest humiliation for Vladimir Putin.
The strikes were part of a meticulously planned and systematic campaign designed to break apart Russia’s air defence network and render Crimea untenable as a staging ground for Moscow’s forces.
The campaign, which has intensified in recent weeks, pits Ukraine’s arsenal of Western missiles – including the American Atacms ballistic missile and the Storm Shadow cruise missiles sent by Britain – against the very latest Russian defences.
But Moscow’s vaunted defences seem increasingly to be coming off second best against Ukraine’s Western weapons – even though many of them are much older.
“None of our missiles were intercepted by the enemy’s ‘highly effective’ air defence,” Ukraine’s general staff said after the attacks on Monday morning.
Two days later, a salvo of 12 Atacms missiles took out two more S-400 systems and a radar installation.
“The Russian rhetoric is that these are all incredible weapons. But in truth, when all these things get thrown together in war, it’s a question of not just the technology, but the ingenuity and imagination of the people who are using them,” Matthew Savill, the military sciences director for the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), told the Sunday Telegraph.
The S-400, which entered service in 2007, is one of Russia’s most advanced air defence systems and has a price tag of more than a billion dollars.
But Ukraine’s recent strikes have proved it remains vulnerable even to older weapons like the Atacms, which has been in service with the US military since 1986, or the Storm Shadow, which dates back to the mid-90s.
“People hyped up Russian air defences for years,” said Mr Savill. “What we’ve actually seen over a period of time is that they haven’t protected the Syrians in Syria. They haven’t protected the Iranians in Iran, and now they haven’t protected the Russians in Crimea.”
Western cruise missiles are more difficult to intercept than their Russian counterparts and their stealth technology sets them apart, said Fabian Hoffmann, a doctoral research fellow focusing on missile technology at the University of Oslo.
The Storm Shadow flies at a low altitude, with its carefully crafted shape making it difficult for Russian radars to detect, meaning it can soar past air defence systems unhindered – as footage from Crimea has shown. When it nears the end of its flight, the missile climbs steeply before diving towards its target.
But it’s not just these capabilities that set Ukraine’s attacks apart, but also the quick thinking of its servicemen.
“There’s just a lot more planning going into the strikes with the Storm Shadows. The Ukrainians really plan out those trajectories, they’re really meticulously plotted in order to circumvent Russian air defence bubbles,” Mr Hoffman said. “We’ve also seen that the Russian operators appear not to be too terribly qualified.
“They’re right now going very methodically and systematically after these S-300 and S-400 air defences. And know that it’s a smart thing to do. That’s exactly what they should be doing, Nato would do the same.”
According to Mr Savill, Ukraine’s long-range missile attacks are accompanied by large numbers of attack drones, giving a “sheer weight in numbers” that is difficult for Russia to fight back against.
“When you combine those all together, the weight of fire that’s coming in, probably from multiple directions, means that you can get those cruise missiles through,” he said.
Russia meanwhile has been forced to spread its weapons more sparsely, given the 1000km long frontline with Ukraine, as well as its need to fence off Kaliningrad, the Kola Peninsula, the border with Finland, and to the east of the country, around Vladivostok.
“The Ukrainians are now launching strikes in all directions. The Russians have got a significant stockpile of various weapons, but they’re now having to make difficult prioritisation decisions,” said Mr Savill.
The series of embarrassing attacks on Crimea has forced the Kremlin to respond.
Earlier this week, reports emerged that Russia had deployed an S-500, the most advanced ballistic missile defence system it has, to protect the peninsula’s Kerch Bridge.
Ukraine has had a long-standing desire to destroy the bridge, which is a Putin vanity project and provides a logistical lifeline for his occupation of Crimea.
The Ukrainian strikes, said Mr Savill, are a “headache for Putin”.
“It’s harder for the Russians to base and launch aircraft from there. It’s harder for them to store ammunition there and supply their forces. And it’s embarrassing, frankly.”
Source Agencies
