Tesla (TSLA) announced another recall for its Cybertruck — its fourth since its release late last year. But perhaps the real headline from the announcement? Within the recall notice, there’s a disclosure on how many Cybertrucks are actually out in the wild.
In a letter from NHTSA dated Monday, June 24, Tesla confirmed that it would be issuing a recall for a defective front wiper. The Cybertruck’s single large front wiper (the largest ever used for a passenger vehicle) can fail due to “excessive electrical current.” A separate concurrent recall was also issued for the trim panel in the truck’s bed.
Tesla also revealed the number of vehicles affected by the recall — 11,688 trucks — which would equate to the number of Cybertrucks sold since it includes vehicles in use, and in transit to customers. Because Tesla does not officially break out Cybertruck sales in its quarterly delivery report, getting a read on early Cybertruck sales is noteworthy.
Digging through the numbers also reveals estimated monthly delivery figures. Tesla began low-volume production of the Cybertruck at Giga Austin in late November of last year, and a prior recall notice from Tesla revealed that it delivered 1,163 vehicles in December. That leaves 10,525 vehicles or thereabouts produced by Tesla in 2024, giving Tesla an average monthly delivery rate of 1,754 Cybertrucks, with five days left in June.
Extrapolating that through the end of 2024 means Tesla could deliver around 23,500 Cybertrucks this year. However, at its annual shareholder meeting two weeks ago, CEO Elon Musk disclosed Tesla achieved a production record of 1,300 Cybertrucks per week, with a stretch goal of 2,500 vehicles per week by the end of 2024.
Producing 2,500 Cybertrucks a week equates to a theoretical 125,000 vehicles a year (with two weeks of factory downtime), or half the total Tesla sees as its full-volume production total of 250,000 units.
The bigger question here is whether there are enough Cybertruck buyers for 125,000 vehicles produced in a year, let alone 250,000 vehicles. Musk claimed last year that Cybertruck demand was “off the hook” and also revealed at the shareholder meeting that cheaper, non-Foundation series Cybertrucks are on the way. The Foundation Series starts at $102,235, but cheaper trims like the Cyberbeast ($96,390) and All-Wheel Drive ($76,390) could be on the way.
The overall demand picture for EVs — even Tesla EVs like the popular Model Y SUV — is murky. Musk confirmed at the shareholder meeting that near-term demand and sales will still struggle somewhat as the industry goes through a transitionary period.
“It’s tough sledding out there,” Musk said with regard to the EV market, adding that competitors have also been pulling back EV investment and production.
Tesla is expected to report overall second quarter delivery numbers early next week. The Street is expecting around 441K deliveries for the quarter per Bloomberg consensus, which would be higher than the 386.8K delivered in Q1 but lower than the 466.1K delivered a year ago.
Pras Subramanian is a reporter for Yahoo Finance covering the auto industry. You can follow him on Twitter and on Instagram.
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