Labour are on course for a landslide victory on Thursday with a majority of 212 seats according to the final YouGov poll projection of the campaign.
This will give Sir Keir Starmer the biggest majority for any single party since 1832 in a vote which YouGov’s last MRP suggests will break a series of electoral records.
Some of the biggest names in Conservative politics would lose their seats under this projection, including 16 of the 26 cabinet ministers still standing, including Chancellor Jeremy Hunt.
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The list of likely losers also includes former Tory leaders like Sir Iain Duncan Smith and potential future leadership contenders like Miriam Cates.
According to YouGov, Labour are set to win 431 seats, the highest number in the party’s history and passing the previous peak of 419 reached by Tony Blair in 1997 – making Sir Keir the most successful Labour leader in history in electoral terms.
This is more than double the 202 seats achieved by Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour in 2019.
Meanwhile, the Tories are on course for 102 seats, substantially down on the 165 achieved in 1997 under Sir John Major, losing more than two thirds of the 365 elected under Boris Johnson in 2019.
Sir Ed Davey’s Liberal Democrats are projected to get 72 seats, higher than their previous peak of 62 in 2005 under Charles Kennedy.
Nigel Farage’s Reform UK is set for three seats, while the Greens are on two seats. The SNP are set to drop from 48 seats in 2019 to 18 seats, according to YouGov.
This is YouGov’s final call of the election, and the projected majority is a central estimate which they believe could range from 132 to 282.
Under the pollster’s margin of error, the Labour Party’s seats could range from 391 to 466, and the Tories from 78 to 129.
The Lib Dems could range from 57 to 87, while the SNP range from eight to 34, Reform from zero to 14, Greens from one to four, and Plaid from one to four.
The pollster interviewed 47,758 voters in Great Britain between 19 June to 2 July to get the figures.
This would mean a bleak national picture for the Tories, becoming a party predominantly of the South East, South West, and East of England. They would face near wipe out in the North East, North West and Wales, areas where Mr Johnson fared much better.
The YouGov projection implies vote shares of Labour on 39%, Conservatives on 22%, Reform on 15%, Liberal Democrats on 12%, Greens on 7%, SNP on 3%, Plaid on 1%, and others on 2% – near identical to the previous YouGov MRP poll two weeks ago.
It suggests a swing of 14.3% from Conservative to Labour, which is larger than the 10.2% swing from Conservative to Labour in 1997.
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The YouGov projection suggests that a significant number of the Tories most prominent politicians are set to lose their seats.
Of the 16 cabinet ministers, this includes Mr Hunt in Godalming & Ash who is projected to lose to the Liberal Democrats, and Grant Shapps, the defence secretary and potential leadership contender in Welwyn Hatfield who could lose to Labour.
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There is also Richard Holden, the Tory party chair who could lose in Basildon & Billericay to Labour, and Penny Mordaunt, the leader of the Commons and another leadership contender, who could lose Portsmouth North to Labour.
Labour’s Thangam Debbonaire could be the only member of the Starmer front bench team to lose their seat, with her Bristol Central seat potentially going to the Greens.
Source Agencies
