NEW DELHI: The world’s population is expected to peak within the current century to reach around 10.3 billion people in the mid-2080s, up from 8.2 billion in 2024. After peaking, it is projected to start declining, gradually falling to 10.2 billion by the end of the century.
While in 63 countries, like China and Japan, population peaked before 2024, India and the US are placed among 126 countries where the peak is expected in the second half of the century or beyond 2100.Significantly, one in four people live in a country whose population has already peaked.
These findings, part of the ‘World Population Prospects 2024’ report released by the UN on Thursday, also highlight that since 2022, life expectancy has returned to pre-Covid levels in nearly all countries and areas. After a brief decline during the pandemic, global life expectancy at birth has reached 73.3 years in 2024 (an increase of 8.4 years since 1995) up from 70.9 years during the pandemic.
“Further reductions in mortality are projected to result in an average longevity of around 77.4 years globally in 2054. By the late 2050s, more than half of all global deaths will occur at age 80 or higher, a substantial increase from 17% in 1995,” the report shows.
By the late 2070s, the number of persons at ages 65 years and higher globally is projected to reach 2.2 billion, surpassing the number of children (under age 18). By the mid-2030s, it is projected that there will be 265 million persons aged 80 years or older, more than the number of infants (1 year of age or less).
Even in countries that are still growing rapidly and have relatively youthful populations, the number of persons aged 65 or older is expected to rise over the next 30 years.
According to a press statement released from New York, the analysis in the report prepared by the Population Division of the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN DESA) shows that the size of the world’s population in 2100 is now expected to be 6% lower — or 700 million fewer — than anticipated a decade ago according to the ‘World Population Prospects 2024’ report released by the UN on Thursday.
In 63 countries and areas, containing 28% of the world’s population in 2024, the size of the population peaked before 2024. This category includes countries like China, Germany, Japan and the Russian Federation, and the total population of this group is projected to decline by 14% over the next thirty years.
For another 48 countries with 10% of the world’s population, including Brazil, Iran, Türkiye and Vietnam, the population is projected to peak between 2025 and 2054.
In the remaining 126 countries, including India, Indonesia, Nigeria, Pakistan and the United States of America, the population is expected to increase through 2054 and, potentially, to peak in the second half of the century or beyond 2100.
In nine countries of this last group, including Angola, the Central African Republic, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Niger and Somalia, very rapid growth is projected, with their total population doubling between 2024 and 2054.
The report highlights that rapid fertility declines in populous countries is a likely cause for the global population to peak within this century (80%), contrasting with a decade ago when the probability was around 30%.
“The demographic landscape has evolved greatly in recent years,” said Li Junhua, UN Under-Secretary-General for Economic and Social Affairs. “In some countries, the birth rate is now even lower than previously anticipated, and we are also seeing slightly faster declines in some high-fertility regions. The earlier and lower peak is a hopeful sign. This could mean reduced environmental pressures from human impacts due to lower aggregate consumption,” Junhua added.
“The earlier population peak is due to several factors, including lower levels of fertility in some of the world’s largest countries, especially China. Globally, women are having one child fewer, on average, than they did around 1990,” the analysis shows.
The data brings into focus that in more than half of all countries, the average number of live births per woman is below 2.1—the level required for a population to maintain a constant size over the long term without migration—and nearly a fifth of all countries and areas, including China, Italy, the Republic of Korea and Spain, now have “ultra-low” fertility, with fewer than 1.4 live births per woman over a lifetime.
On what the journey onwards is expected to look like, the report states that the main driver of global population increase through mid-century will be the momentum created by growth in the past. “The number of women at ages 15–49 is projected to grow from nearly 2 billion in 2024 to a peak of around 2.2 billion in the late 2050s, driving continued growth even if the number of births per woman falls to the replacement level.” Moreover, today’s youthful age structure, which is a product of past growth, will account for 79% of the population increase through 2054, adding about 1.4 billion people.
The analysis also shows that the countries with youthful populations and declining fertility have a limited time to benefit economically from an increasing concentration of population in the working ages. “In about 100 countries or areas, the working-age population (between 20 and 64 years) will grow through 2054, offering a window of opportunity known as the demographic dividend,” the UN report states and recommends that to capitalize on this opportunity, countries must invest in education, health, and infrastructure, and implement reforms to create jobs and improve government efficiency.
For some populations, immigration will be the main driver of future growth. “In 50 countries and areas, immigration is projected to attenuate the decline in population size due to sustained low levels of fertility and an older age structure. However, in 14 countries and areas already experiencing ultra-low fertility, emigration is likely to contribute to reducing population size through 2054,” the report states.
The data also shows that early pregnancies remain a challenge, particularly in low-income countries. In 2024, 4.7 million babies, or about 3.5% of the total worldwide, were born to mothers under age 18 – and some 340,000, to girls under age 15 – with serious consequences for the health and well-being of both the young mothers and their children.
The UN calls for investing in the education of youth, especially girls, and increasing the ages at marriage and first childbearing in countries where these milestone events tend to occur early will have positive effects on women’s health, educational attainment and labour force participation. “These efforts will also contribute to slowing population growth and reducing the scale of the investments required to achieve sustainable development while ensuring that no one is left behind,” the report asserts.
While in 63 countries, like China and Japan, population peaked before 2024, India and the US are placed among 126 countries where the peak is expected in the second half of the century or beyond 2100.Significantly, one in four people live in a country whose population has already peaked.
These findings, part of the ‘World Population Prospects 2024’ report released by the UN on Thursday, also highlight that since 2022, life expectancy has returned to pre-Covid levels in nearly all countries and areas. After a brief decline during the pandemic, global life expectancy at birth has reached 73.3 years in 2024 (an increase of 8.4 years since 1995) up from 70.9 years during the pandemic.
“Further reductions in mortality are projected to result in an average longevity of around 77.4 years globally in 2054. By the late 2050s, more than half of all global deaths will occur at age 80 or higher, a substantial increase from 17% in 1995,” the report shows.
By the late 2070s, the number of persons at ages 65 years and higher globally is projected to reach 2.2 billion, surpassing the number of children (under age 18). By the mid-2030s, it is projected that there will be 265 million persons aged 80 years or older, more than the number of infants (1 year of age or less).
Even in countries that are still growing rapidly and have relatively youthful populations, the number of persons aged 65 or older is expected to rise over the next 30 years.
According to a press statement released from New York, the analysis in the report prepared by the Population Division of the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN DESA) shows that the size of the world’s population in 2100 is now expected to be 6% lower — or 700 million fewer — than anticipated a decade ago according to the ‘World Population Prospects 2024’ report released by the UN on Thursday.
In 63 countries and areas, containing 28% of the world’s population in 2024, the size of the population peaked before 2024. This category includes countries like China, Germany, Japan and the Russian Federation, and the total population of this group is projected to decline by 14% over the next thirty years.
For another 48 countries with 10% of the world’s population, including Brazil, Iran, Türkiye and Vietnam, the population is projected to peak between 2025 and 2054.
In the remaining 126 countries, including India, Indonesia, Nigeria, Pakistan and the United States of America, the population is expected to increase through 2054 and, potentially, to peak in the second half of the century or beyond 2100.
In nine countries of this last group, including Angola, the Central African Republic, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Niger and Somalia, very rapid growth is projected, with their total population doubling between 2024 and 2054.
The report highlights that rapid fertility declines in populous countries is a likely cause for the global population to peak within this century (80%), contrasting with a decade ago when the probability was around 30%.
“The demographic landscape has evolved greatly in recent years,” said Li Junhua, UN Under-Secretary-General for Economic and Social Affairs. “In some countries, the birth rate is now even lower than previously anticipated, and we are also seeing slightly faster declines in some high-fertility regions. The earlier and lower peak is a hopeful sign. This could mean reduced environmental pressures from human impacts due to lower aggregate consumption,” Junhua added.
“The earlier population peak is due to several factors, including lower levels of fertility in some of the world’s largest countries, especially China. Globally, women are having one child fewer, on average, than they did around 1990,” the analysis shows.
The data brings into focus that in more than half of all countries, the average number of live births per woman is below 2.1—the level required for a population to maintain a constant size over the long term without migration—and nearly a fifth of all countries and areas, including China, Italy, the Republic of Korea and Spain, now have “ultra-low” fertility, with fewer than 1.4 live births per woman over a lifetime.
On what the journey onwards is expected to look like, the report states that the main driver of global population increase through mid-century will be the momentum created by growth in the past. “The number of women at ages 15–49 is projected to grow from nearly 2 billion in 2024 to a peak of around 2.2 billion in the late 2050s, driving continued growth even if the number of births per woman falls to the replacement level.” Moreover, today’s youthful age structure, which is a product of past growth, will account for 79% of the population increase through 2054, adding about 1.4 billion people.
The analysis also shows that the countries with youthful populations and declining fertility have a limited time to benefit economically from an increasing concentration of population in the working ages. “In about 100 countries or areas, the working-age population (between 20 and 64 years) will grow through 2054, offering a window of opportunity known as the demographic dividend,” the UN report states and recommends that to capitalize on this opportunity, countries must invest in education, health, and infrastructure, and implement reforms to create jobs and improve government efficiency.
For some populations, immigration will be the main driver of future growth. “In 50 countries and areas, immigration is projected to attenuate the decline in population size due to sustained low levels of fertility and an older age structure. However, in 14 countries and areas already experiencing ultra-low fertility, emigration is likely to contribute to reducing population size through 2054,” the report states.
The data also shows that early pregnancies remain a challenge, particularly in low-income countries. In 2024, 4.7 million babies, or about 3.5% of the total worldwide, were born to mothers under age 18 – and some 340,000, to girls under age 15 – with serious consequences for the health and well-being of both the young mothers and their children.
The UN calls for investing in the education of youth, especially girls, and increasing the ages at marriage and first childbearing in countries where these milestone events tend to occur early will have positive effects on women’s health, educational attainment and labour force participation. “These efforts will also contribute to slowing population growth and reducing the scale of the investments required to achieve sustainable development while ensuring that no one is left behind,” the report asserts.
Source Agencies
