The local currency is poised to retest its highs of December in the next few weeks, analysts and economists say, while the Australian dollar could trade for as much as 70 US cents in the next 12 months.
The bigger picture: The Australian dollar has risen from just over 64 US cents in mid-April to around 67.50 US cents in recent days, and was buying 67.75 US cents on Friday evening.
It briefly hit a six-month
high of just under 68 US cents late on Thursday night after monthly US inflation data came in softer than expected, firming odds of a US interest rate cut in September – and perhaps as many as three cuts in 2024. Interest rate cuts tend to weaken a nation’s currency against other currencies.
The key quote: City Index analyst Matt Simpson said in the near term he could see Australia’s currency pushing past the 68.80 US cent level set in December, its highest peak since July 2023.
“I think the Aussie can grind higher from here, towards the 68.50, 69 (US) cents level,” he said.
What else to know: According to AMP chief economist Shane Oliver, the Australian dollar will be supported not just by falling interest rate differentials but also rising commodity prices and Australia’s balance of trade.
What happens next: Oliver expects the Aussie to push up towards 70 US cents or slightly above that level into 2025.
He said downside risks include a global recession and Donald Trump being re-elected and igniting a trade war with China.
Source Agencies
