ORLANDO, Fla. – We’re sitting under a typical summer pattern this week, though warmer than normal by several degrees – thanks in part to a much warmer-than-normal ocean. As our winds are coming from that direction, naturally they’ll be at a higher temperature than otherwise.
There’s a heat advisory for Flagler County, with heat index levels expected to reach 108°+, but it’ll be slightly below the criteria for an advisory elsewhere in our region.
Overall, in the forecast, we’ll be tracking the daily collision of the sea breezes to determine exactly where the afternoon storm initiates, but today, that looks to be right over Orlando, yielding a likely 70% chance for rain between 4 p.m.-7 p.m.
High pressure over the western Atlantic will steer our winds from the Caribbean, resulting in a typical summer pattern. Thankfully, the tropics remain quiet due to abundant Saharan dust. This steering flow would push anything tropical toward our general direction. (No tropical development is expected in the next week.)
As our region approaches peak heating this afternoon with highs in the mid-90s, a sea breeze from both the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic will develop and rush inland, where air pressures are lower due to all the heat. Ultimately, the eastward Gulf breeze and westward Atlantic breeze will collide over the I-4 corridor, resulting in a blossoming of thunderstorm activity.
These storms will last for at least an hour with intensity, featuring torrential rains with 3″-7″ of rain per hour, the potential for wind gusts of 50mph and frequent and dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning. This could result in brush fires and even structure fires.
The storms will ultimately cool and stabilize our region from all the heat, leading to their collapse by dinnertime, yielding a pleasant late evening.
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