Why one ex-NFL quarterback says Caleb Williams won’t have a C.J. Stroud-like rookie season originally appeared on NBC Sports Chicago
Ahead of a highly-anticipated Bears season, fans are hopeful rookie quarterback Caleb Williams gets off to a hot start.
Last year rookie C.J. Stroud had a phenomenal season, earning the NFL’s Offensive Rookie of the Year award and finishing eighth in MVP voting. Williams should be able to replicate a season close to Stroud’s, right?
“I think there are two main reasons why I sit there and say while Caleb can have a really strong rookie year, it’s unrealistic to think let’s go do what C.J. did,” Dan Orlovsky said on ESPN. “Number one, C.J. came from a much more ready, X’s and O’s intellect football-wise.
“When he was at Ohio State, Ryan Day ran a ton of pro-style stuff when it came to formations, personnel groupings, action after the snap and pass game. So C.J. stepped into a system with Bobby Slowik that he had a lot of recall from college of and a really good understanding of how pass-game concepts were gonna mirror each other.
“Caleb does not come from that. While Lincoln Riley is brilliant and his offense was brilliant, it’s very different from what he’s gonna run in Chicago with Shane Waldron, who’s their offensive coordinator. It’s from the Kyle Shannahan and Sean McVay tree. Caleb Williams comes from the offense at USC with Lincoln Riley where it’s RPO-centric, spread out, tempo, how many plays can we run? One-read stuff.
“I think he’s smart enough to get where C.J. did, but he doesn’t have that baseline foundational starting point. It’s unrealistic to think Caleb’s gonna step in and all of a sudden he’s going to hit the ground running the same way that C.J. did because he doesn’t have the same foundation, intellect and football-wise the way that C.J. did coming out of Ohio State.”
Orlovsky makes an interesting point about the systems Williams and Stroud came from. Stroud’s system at Ohio State benefitted him with the Texans because the concepts Houston handed him were not easy on film. Instead of feeding him simple, one-read plays, the Texans truly put a lot of power and decision-making on his plate.
Stroud took advantage of that to the tune of a season where he eclipsed 4,108 yards, 23 touchdowns and just five interceptions on a 63.9% completion percentage. That earned him all the accolades, including the NFL’s Offensive Rookie of the Year award and his first career Pro Bowl nod.
One thing Orlovsky didn’t mention is the strong situation Williams is stepping into with the Bears. One could argue it’s much better than the one Stroud stepped into with the Texans last season.
Williams has capable, elite receivers on each end by way of DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, No. 9 pick Rome Odunze and Cole Kmet. He has a formidable backfield highlighted by D’Andre Swift — who earned the sixth-most rushing yards of any running back last season — and Khalil Herbert.
The offensive line could use some adjustments, but even Teven Jenkins told Fox Sports’ Carmen Vitali this offseason the continuity alone will help the line improve drastically. GM Ryan Poles also made additions with Ryan Bates, Coleman Shelton and third-round draft pick Kiran Amegadjie.
Stroud arguably had a better offensive line, especially with Laremy Tunsil at the forefront. But his top receivers Nico Collins and Tank Dell aren’t close to the elite abilities of Moore and Allen.
This is all to say, maybe Williams has a better chance than we think, knowing he’s stepping into a strong situation. But Orlovsky made a great point, remembering the season Stroud recorded last year was unprecedented for a rookie.
“What C.J. did last year was historically in the conversation for the greatest rookie season a quarterback has ever had in the NFL,” Orlovsky said. “It’s like comparing everybody to Patrick Mahomes. It’s not fair. There are only five quarterbacks in the NFL as rookies to throw for over 4,000 yards.”
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