NFL training camp season has arrived, ladies and gentlemen. Prepare for the onslaught of information, rumors and hype pieces. But fantasy managers shouldn’t be wary of the influx of info — Scott Pianowski has you covered with one key nugget to know for every team. First up, the NFC South.
Atlanta Falcons
Kyle Pitts has been mostly a fantasy disappointment through three seasons, scoring just six touchdowns and consistently failing to meet his ADP. But maybe this was primarily a failure of the pieces around him. The Falcons have not had a quarterback post a league-average rating since Pitts joined the team, and departed head coach Arthur Smith was probably over his head.
Pitts is still on the escalator, entering his age-24 season. And let’s remember he posted 1,026 receiving yards in 2021, the second-most ever from a rookie tight end. Kirk Cousins is obviously a much-needed quarterback upgrade for the Falcons, and new OC Zac Robinson spent five years learning under offensive wizard Sean McVay. Mix in a paper-thin Atlanta schedule and Pitts still makes sense as a proactive fantasy pick, currently the TE7 off the board in Yahoo drafts.
Carolina Panthers
Bryce Young’s rookie season was hard to watch, as he was below code in every primary efficiency stat other than interception avoidance. But maybe head coach Dave Canales can fix Young. Canales’ fingerprints were all over Baker Mayfield’s career season last year, and he also was an architect for the Geno Smith emergence in 2022.
Even if Young does improve, it might be difficult for him to claim fantasy value in a traditional league. He’s probably best left as a backup option or a Superflex consideration. But if we’re modestly hopeful for Young, that would likely press Diontae Johnson into credible fantasy territory. Johnson has little competition for targets in Carolina, and won’t have to do much to outkick his current Yahoo tag of WR35.
New Orleans Saints
Alvin Kamara is a polarizing fantasy pick entering 2024. Colleague Andy Behrens recently published some pro-Kamara takes, and I always respect Andy’s opinion. But I’m concerned that Kamara is more about volume accumulation than splashy plays these days, and that has me fading the veteran entering his age-29 season.
Kamara was a reliable fantasy producer after his suspension in 2023, finishing fifth in half-point PPR scoring per game. That rank was propped up by his regular use in the passing game — he had 75 grabs, second-most in the league. The reception count is great, but those plays weren’t that successful — Kamara’s 6.2 yards per catch represents a career low, and a 2.4-yard drop from the previous year.
The warning signs are more prominent with Kamara the runner. Kamara managed just 3.9 yards per carry last year and didn’t have a single rush over 20 yards (an astonishing lack of explosiveness; heck, Baltimore reserve Keaton Mitchell had seven such runs on just 47 carries). Mix everything together and Kamara checked in at 5.4 yards per touch, the third straight year he’s fallen in that category. It’s a far cry from the 8.3 YPT he logged back in his rookie season.
The Saints don’t go out of their way to steer Kamara easy touchdowns; he’s scored a modest 10 times over his last 28 games. Perhaps Taysom Hill will vulture some goal-line work, and second-year back Kendre Miller is also interesting after a washout first season (mostly ruined by injury; he did pop in Week 18). Given Kamara’s age and declining efficiency, I can’t view him as a destination fantasy pick this summer.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
While receivers will often have randomness in their touchdown rates, there’s something to be said for consistent play design. Mike Evans has long been the designated touchdown threat in the Tampa Bay passing game, and it makes him a still-attractive fantasy pick entering his age-31 season.
Evans, of course, has famously logged 1,000 yards or more in all 10 of his pro seasons. He’s probably already punched a Hall of Fame ticket. But it’s the touchdowns that frame Evans as fantasy royalty; he’s spiked 46 times in the last four years, including a league-high 13 touchdown catches last year.
Contrast this to Chris Godwin, a reliable possession receiver who doesn’t score often. Although Godwin has 50 more receptions than Evans over the last four seasons, Godwin has a modest 17 touchdowns in that period — a whopping 29 scores behind his teammate. Sometimes disparities like this show for a season or two, but given that this touchdown trend is four years old, it’s wise to follow it. That’s what Yahoo drafters are doing, pushing Evans to the WR14 slot while Godwin is a modest WR36.
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