Sydney remains two games and significant percentage clear on top of the ladder … but is there still a big gap between them and the casing pack in the premiership race?
The Swans dropped their third game from their last four in a nailbiting two-point defeat to Brisbane at the Gabba in one of the games of the season.
Sydney coach John Longmire was proud of his playing group given its injury toll worsened including a potential serious ankle injury to Tom Papley, as well as setbacks to Will Hayward (ankle), who played out the game, and Dane Rampe (calf).
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It’s meant the Swans, who were also missing Justin McInerney (knee) and managed Callum Mills, haven’t had the continuity with their 23 like they have all season.
Additionally, Sydney’s last five losses have come by under a kick to pose a question of whether there’s concerns on its ability to win in close games.
“I think Sydney has been reeled back in to the point where there’s maybe not a gap anymore,” Saints Hall of Famer Leigh Montgana said on Fox Footy’s The First Crack.
“At the bye I said they looked invincible. If they kept up the form they were playing, it was going to be one of the great home and away seasons. That has come off a little bit.
“The reality is they’ve lost three of their last four, I know they’ve only been small margins. They’re probably still the favourites, but if someone said to me they have a different favourite now, you could see that.
“We’re certainly not writing off Sydney … they are certainly right in the mix, it’s just were they were to where they are now. The chasing peloton can see that and have taken away some assets – the scoring has dried up.”
Kangaroos legend David King expressed concerns for Papley, saying “I hate seeing people in moon boots so quickly” in a worrying sight for Swans fans.
“The information we get out of Sydney the next 24 to 48 hours will be critical to their aspirations to win it,” he said on The First Crack.
“He’s the type of player that if you did put a line through him for a large block of the back half of the season, you start to wonder how much weight (Errol) Gulden, (Chad) Warner and (Isaac) Heeney cam can carry.”
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With the potential for Papley to miss time, Longmire could consider moving Heeney from the midfield to up forward again amid a decline in form in recent weeks.
“As brilliant as his season has been, he’s dropped off the last month. He’s only kicked two goals in the last four games – and they were against St Kilda – and averaged 21 disposals,” Montagna said.
King thinks Sydney “can’t” move Heeney, arguing his on-ball switch is “the reason” the ladder leaders have been the runaway premiership favourites this year.
But as highlighted, the chasing pack looks more capable than before including several contenders boosting their prospects on the weekend.
LIONS
That win over the Swans was monumental as Chris Fagan’s side continued its epic resurgence to now sit third on the ladder and just half a game behind Carlton.
Montagna declared Brisbane is the “No. 1 challenger” to Sydney including the Lions having only dropped one of their past 11 games.
“I think they are coming hard,” Montagna said.
“I just love the way Brisbane won (against Sydney), they didn’t rely on the same names like Lachie Neale dominating or Harris Andrews having 15 intercept possessions.
“I think Brisbane is the ones at the front (of the chasing pack) … you know what you’re going to get with Brisbane now, we’ve seen it for four or five years.
“Yes, they had the slow start, but it’s probably built some resilience. It’s a different type of way Brisbane has done it this year.
“Credit to Chris Fagan, he stayed calm and said ‘we’re OK’ when everyone else was panicking.”
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DOCKERS
Justin Longmuir’s fourth-placed side dominated Melbourne at clearances (+32) en route to a thumping 50-point win that probably flattered the Demons.
Beyond the midfield supremacy, the Dockers’ running game as as good as it’s been in recent memory including scoring 64 points out of their defensive half their best return since 2010.
“Their work out of the back half is what really excites me about Fremantle,” King said.
“When they go and go and run and gun they’ve got speed everywhere. And class and ball use with great decision makers.
“I know it’s against Melbourne and at home, so you’ve got to curb your enthusiasm a little bit. But when you see it you have to recognise it.
“This can take them a long way, this travels – this can go to the MCG, Sydney and Brisbane. I don’t care where they finish on the table, if they want to play like this, they’re a force.
“Wether it’s this year or next, they are looming large.”
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GIANTS
The Giants have won three games in a row to climb into fifth position – a period they’ve averaged 6.1 (37 points) scoring out of their defensive 50, having only had one better return since 2021.
It led Montaga to declare the “tsunami is well and truly back.” And while both he and King stopped short of declaring Adam Kingsley’s side a genuine contender again, there’s optimism about their direction behind their exciting crop of forwards.
“Small ball is king in the game at the moment,” King said.
“It’s exciting to watch and I think they’ve been seduced by individuals in the past.
“But this looks more complete as a unit than what is has for the first dozen weeks of the season.”
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BULLDOGS
While the Dogs remain outside the top eight, they’ve won four of their last five games including a 47-point upset win over Geelong over the weekend.
King believes Rory Lobb’s move to defence is “the coaching move of the year” and “a move that can win you a flag”.
“He has been a revelation down there … only Ben McKay has had more intercepts the last four weeks and only Zerk-Thatcher has had more intercepts. This is a move that can win you a flag.
“He’s a player easy to dislike, because he’s been up and down his whole career.
“But this is against Jeremy Cameron and a difficult matchup at the best of times. You get your decision making wrong and leak goals.
“This to me was the performance of the weekend (from the Dogs). For them to go down there, get the chocolates, show their offensive power and midfield stocks.
“Behind the ball for the first time in a long time they’ve got interceptors. I can’t wait to see what they become.”
Source Agencies