NFL training camp season has arrived, ladies and gentlemen. Prepare for the onslaught of information, rumors and hype pieces. But fantasy managers shouldn’t be wary of the influx of info — Scott Pianowski has you covered with one key nugget to know for every team. Next up is the AFC East.
We’re entering Year 5 of the Tua Tagovailoa experience, and it’s still difficult to discern how good he really is. One thing is certain — he hasn’t become an elite fantasy quarterback.
Despite leading the NFL in YPA and quarterback rating two years ago and topping the league in passing yards last year, Tagovailoa has never charted higher than QB11. Tagovailoa is a reluctant runner and the Dolphins score a lot of their touchdowns on the ground.
Part of it comes down to physical tools — Tagovailoa has ordinary arm strength and is undersized for the position, a modest 6-foot-1. He also struggled against better competition last year; most of his stronger starts came against lesser teams. If you want to slot Tagovailoa as a QB2 in a Superflex format, it might fit some roster builds. But if your league requires just one starter at the position, I’d like you to aim for a higher ceiling.
With Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis out of town, fantasy managers are scrambling to decipher which Buffalo receiver(s) will benefit from all the vacated targets. But maybe the right answer is tight end Dalton Kincaid. His rookie season was partially screened by what Sam LaPorta did in Detroit, but let’s acknowledge the historical significance of Kincaid’s debut. His 73 receptions were fourth-most from a first-year tight end, and his 673 yards slot him ninth all-time among rookies at the position.
Kincaid didn’t get a boost from touchdowns, scoring just three in all (one in the playoffs). But note those scores all came from distance — 22, 22 and 29 yards. Give Kincaid better luck around the goal line and a bump in target share and you might be looking at a breakout season. He’s certainly no giveaway at the current market price — his Yahoo ADP is settling around 60 — but Kincaid’s upside still might be worth chasing.
Garrett Wilson enters his third season overdue for a breakout year. All he needs is decent quarterback play. Wilson ranks 11th in wide receiver catches since the beginning of 2022, and he’s 18th in yards over that span. This solid production came despite a clown car of New York quarterbacks — Zach Wilson, Tim Boyle, Mike White and the sunset days of Joe Flacco. No one in that oddball quartet may start a single NFL game this year.
Wilson’s one light column through two years has been touchdowns; he’s only scored seven times — but again, that’s driven by the spotty quarterback play. Assuming Aaron Rodgers can be merely average — and it’s plausible he might be better than that — Wilson is a slam-dunk to improve his touchdown rate. Rodgers has a history of peppering a primary target if that receiver is clearly the No. 1 on the roster, and Wilson unquestionably checks that box in New York.
Wilson isn’t cheap as the WR7 in early Yahoo drafts, but there’s still a fair chance of him beating that ADP. I’ll draft him proactively through the summer.
It can be daunting to select a fantasy back from a losing team. Game flow will often be your enemy, and it logically follows that weaker teams won’t score as many points. But Rhamondre Stevenson still has some fantasy juice to offer as the featured back in New England.
First of all, Stevenson has little competition for carries. The second back in New England’s room is Antonio Gibson, more of a satellite player. Kevin Harris and JaMycal Hasty are merely depth options. And the Patriots offense is now helmed by OC Alex Van Pelt, who was part of a run-first offensive regime in Cleveland. Stevenson might not have tons of profit room as the current RB20 off the Yahoo board, but if he has a reasonable health runout he can at least recoup his investment.
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