Don’t be fooled by the first-half/second-half nomenclature surrounding the All-Star break; the regular season is more than 60% complete. And with the trade deadline less than a week away, we’ll soon have even more clarity about which teams have definitive ambitions of making this year’s postseason field and which are ready to turn their focus to 2025 and beyond.
For our latest power rankings, we’re taking a look at one key player for each team over the season’s final two months. For contenders and October hopefuls, these are players whose performances could dictate their team’s ceiling once the playoffs begin or swing their team’s chances of reaching the postseason at all. For teams that are out of it, these are players who could be used as trade chips in the coming days or those whose showings down the stretch could solidify (or cast doubt on) their place in the team’s future plans.
The consensus best team in baseball sent two relievers to the All-Star Game in Jeff Hoffman and Matt Strahm, and that was entirely deserved. Meanwhile, the team’s current saves leader, José Alvarado, has struggled considerably over the past month-plus (6.92 ERA across his past 14 outings) and has been far less dominant this year than the past two seasons.
At his best, Alvarado’s elite velocity makes him one of the more fearsome southpaw relievers in the league, but his poor form recently calls into question what the Phillies’ bullpen hierarchy might look like by the time the postseason arrives. With an elite rotation and several other strong options to close games, this is hardly a reason to panic for Philly. But with so few other holes on the roster, Alvarado stands out as one key cog whose performance over the next few months is worth monitoring.
Having lost Kyle Bradish, John Means and Tyler Wells to season-ending injuries, the Orioles are one of several teams that have seen their rotations thinned by injury. The February acquisition of Corbin Burnes has aged wonderfully considering the quantity and quality of innings he has provided, but there are still real questions about the state of this pitching staff.
There’s good reason to believe Baltimore will be adding a starter or two before the trade deadline, but no matter whom the O’s are able to bring in, Grayson Rodriguez will in all likelihood be slated to start a postseason game at some point. The 24-year-old righty has been solid as a sophomore, but his gaudy record (12-4) is more a reflection of the tremendous run support he has received (6.4 runs per start is third among qualified starters) than of how effective he has been (98 ERA+). There’s still another level for G-Rod to reach; whether he gets there this year could have a sizable impact on how far Baltimore can go in October.
Year 17 of Clayton Kershaw’s legendary Dodgers career will reportedly launch Thursday, when the 36-year-old left-hander makes his long-awaited 2024 debut following offseason shoulder surgery. There is obviously immense intrigue surrounding how Kershaw will look, regardless of how he fits into the Dodgers’ plans, but the depleted state of the pitching staff around him has seemingly heightened the degree to which L.A. might be relying on Kershaw over the next few months. I’ll be fascinated to see if Kershaw emerges as one of L.A.’s best options to start a postseason game by the time October rolls around or if he’ll strictly be asked to cover as many innings as possible for the remainder of the regular season.
It was probably unfair for us to expect that Jackson Chourio, even as one of baseball’s top prospects, would immediately figure out how to hit big-league pitching as the youngest player in the league by far. And sure enough, it took some time for the guy who turned 20 in March to find his footing at the highest level.
Chourio’s .575 OPS over his first 51 games didn’t actually hamper Milwaukee much, considering how well nearly everyone else in the lineup was hitting, but now Chourio’s exceptional talent has started to shine through right as some of his teammates’ bats have cooled off — yet another promising development within Milwaukee’s surprisingly successful campaign. Chourio playing like the NL Rookie of the Year candidate many hoped he could be would raise the Brewers’ ceiling considerably.
It’s no secret that Cleveland needs to address its starting rotation in some form ahead of the deadline if it wants to hang on to first place in the AL Central — let alone go far in the postseason. But I’m going to stay focused on the offense here and highlight, well, whoever the fourth-best hitter on this team is.
I’d love to believe David Fry, who joined teammates Jose Ramirez, Steven Kwan and Josh Naylor at the All-Star Game last week, can rediscover his heroic April and May form. But Fry’s OPS since the start of June has hovered around .600, a harsh reality check that leaves this offensive unit in a questionable place beyond the stellar trio of Kwan, Ramirez and Naylor. Maybe Andrés Giménez heats up, or one of the younger position players starts raking and solidifies an every-day role (Bo Naylor? Angel Martinez? Jhonkensy Noel?). Perhaps a trade for a bat will accompany a deal for a starting pitcher. Whoever it is, I’d like to have a better sense of the depth of this lineup come October.
Speaking of lineup depth, Juan Soto himself said earlier this week that it’s going to take more than just him and Aaron Judge playing like MVPs for the Yankees to get to the World Series. On that front, outside of possible deadline additions, Giancarlo Stanton’s expected return from the injured list in the coming weeks looms as a crucial development for a Yankees lineup that has been sorely lacking power threats beyond Soto and Judge.
Even a boom-or-bust version of Stanton that strikes out a ton could make this New York lineup that much more daunting, considering the tremendous slugging potential Stanton still possesses. Anything that can make pitching around Judge and Soto less palatable for opposing pitchers is a good thing, and that’s what Stanton’s return should accomplish at the very least.
The hits keep coming for Atlanta, with another rash of injuries — most notably, a broken wrist suffered by second baseman Ozzie Albies — resulting in a lineup that barely resembles the one that took the field on Opening Day. Of the few familiar faces who remain healthy and playing every day, Matt Olson stands out as someone Atlanta will surely need more from in the coming months if the Braves want to have any hope of another deep postseason run.
While Austin Riley has finally started to look like himself following a stunningly cold start to the season, Olson has flatly gone backward and is in the midst of arguably the worst month of his big-league career. We finally saw Brian Snitker drop Olson out of the cleanup spot earlier this week; now it’s on Olson to make the adjustments necessary to rediscover his star-slugger form. Otherwise, this Braves lineup isn’t going to intimidate anyone anytime soon.
I’m rarely going to be too critical of teams for making win-now moves amidst a landscape rife with cautious inactivity and half-measures, but the Royals paid a hefty price for Hunter Harvey earlier this month, and I’m not entirely convinced that Harvey is good enough to substantially upgrade this bullpen on his own. Kansas City has done quite well with its rotation additions over the past year, but it hasn’t really hit big on any of the relievers brought in. Harvey will need to break that trend for this trade to look good, and while he should help in some form, he probably shouldn’t be the Royals’ biggest move this month if they’re hoping to stay in the AL playoff picture.
Byron Buxton has been healthy and raking since mid-May, a welcome sight for a Minnesota team now dealing with injuries to three of its best hitters in Carlos Correa, Royce Lewis and Jose Miranda. Arguably no player has had the X-factor label ascribed to them more over the past decade than Buxton, and that remains as true as ever as the Twins try to chase down Cleveland atop the AL Central. If Buxton can sustain his excellent level of play on both sides of the ball until this lineup is fully operational again — and then continue playing well alongside his co-stars — Minnesota’s chances of recapturing the division title become a whole lot more realistic.
It’s remarkable that Boston’s rotation has been so good considering that its Opening Day starter, Brayan Bello — who signed a six-year, $55 million extension in March — has a 5.27 ERA that ranks 87th out of 89 pitchers with at least 90 innings pitched. He has shown flashes of improvement recently, with quality starts in three of his past four outings, but he’s still allowing a ton of hard contact. This is a pitcher Boston needs to get back on track in short order, both to give the team its best chance to stay in the postseason picture and to feel better about the investment the organization made in Bello as an anchor of its rotation for years to come.
Sure, we can all keep hoping that Paul Goldschmidt and/or Nolan Arenado will magically turn the clock back to 2022 and start playing like MVP candidates again, but at this point, I’d rather turn my attention to the younger crop of Cardinals bats. There are several such players worth highlighting, but I’m especially eager to see what Lars Nootbaar can do for this lineup now that he’s healthy. At his best, the 26-year-old outfielder can provide tremendous OBP ability, the kind that can serve as a nice contrast to some of the more aggressive swingers surrounding him in the lineup. This offense could really start clicking if Nootbaar starts hitting like he has the past two seasons.
What to make of Framber Valdez’s underwhelming campaign? While Ronel Blanco and, more recently, Hunter Brown have emerged as Houston’s most reliable starters atop a rotation decimated by injury, Valdez has quietly chugged along with mediocre results at best. He’s still coaxing a ton of ground balls — but with a career-low 20.6% strikeout rate and his highest hard-hit rate allowed (49%) since 2020.
Valdez was on the IL in April due to elbow inflammation but has seemingly been OK since returning. That said, his average fastball velocity (93.8 mph) is down a tick from where it was a year ago (95.2 mph), and it’s hard not to wonder if he isn’t 100% healthy. For a pitcher who has been such a huge part of Houston’s success in recent years, Valdez’s seemingly diminished status is worth keeping an eye on as October approaches.
Manny Machado has finally started to look more like himself over the past month after a slow start to the season following offseason elbow surgery, a timely development for a San Diego team still awaiting the return of Fernando Tatis Jr. from a right leg injury. The Padres have thus far been fueled by their surprisingly outstanding outfield far more than their highly paid infield, but Machado is still the heart and soul of this team. In an NL postseason race with razor-thin margins, the Padres need him at his best to feel good about their chances of reaching October, let alone doing any real damage if they get there.
How about the guy the Snakes signed to an $80 million free-agent deal who has yet to throw a pitch this season? Eduardo Rodriguez is reportedly finally nearing a return from the shoulder injury he suffered in spring training, and he could be a huge boost to a rotation that has severely disappointed mostly due to injury but also because of poor performance from Arizona’s other marquee free-agent addition, Jordan Montgomery (6.11 ERA). The shoddy starting pitching has contributed to an already-thin bullpen getting worn out to a dangerous degree. Let’s see if E-Rod can help stabilize the rotation and, in turn, the entire pitching staff.
There are too many underperforming hitters on this team to pick just one to highlight as a second-half X-factor, and injuries to J.P. Crawford and Julio Rodriguez have muddied the waters even further. So I’ll go with Mitch Garver, a player whom Seattle gave an ultra-rare, multiyear deal in free agency last winter in hopes that his offensive pedigree would fortify this lineup.
Outside of a handful of clutch homers, Garver has largely disappointed so far. We’ve already seen him get more time behind the plate than originally expected, and with Ty France now out of the picture, we could see him at first base occasionally. But it doesn’t matter where Garver is playing if he isn’t hitting, especially when he is the regular DH. Garver is one of several Mariners bats that desperately needs to heat up ASAP.
Assuming they choose not to off-load too many (if any) key contributors at the deadline in an effort to build for the future, the biggest question regarding the Mets’ viability as a playoff contender is whether they have enough competent pitching to hold up over the final two months. One way to answer that question would be if Kodai Senga returns to the rotation soon, as expected, and is anywhere close to as good as he was last season. I’ll believe it when I see it, but that’s a huge potential addition for New York if all goes as planned.
It’s incredibly difficult to know how different this Rays roster will look a week from now, but I feel pretty confident that 23-year-old righty Taj Bradley isn’t going anywhere. Since allowing nine runs to Baltimore in a disaster outing on June 1, Bradley has been simply sensational: 49 IP, 0.92 ERA, 17 BB, 58 K. If the Rays are to stick around in the AL wild-card race regardless of the moves, Bradley is going to play a huge role.
Any potential Jacob deGrom return would be a massive deal, regardless of the team’s exact place in the standings. But in deGrom’s case, I’m curious how likely it is that we see him this season in the event that Texas chooses to sell over the next week. The latest reports indicate that the two-time Cy Young Award winner is close to facing hitters, but I’m skeptical that the Rangers would rush the 36-year-old back to the mound if the team doesn’t intend to contend. On the other hand, if Texas stays in it, a deGrom return amidst a frantic postseason push would be one of the more exciting developments imaginable in the second half.
It seemed like Ke’Bryan Hayes made real strides last year to get his bat to a point where, combined with his elite glove, he had become one of the better all-around third basemen in the NL. Unfortunately, Hayes the hitter has gone horribly backward this year, to the point that even on a bad offensive team, his struggles at the plate stand out. He’s still too young and too talented to give up on — not to mention, the sizable extension Pittsburgh already awarded him ensures that he’ll keep playing — but he’s one of several Pirates hitters who need to step up if this team wants to have any hope of playing in October.
Even if Tarik Skubal doesn’t get traded — and I don’t think he will be — the 27-year-old southpaw should remain in the national spotlight as one of the AL Cy Young favorites. Another hard-throwing lefty, Shane McClanahan, experienced a similar seismic breakout two years ago, when he posted a 1.71 ERA before the break and started the All-Star Game for the American League, but he dealt with some injuries and faded somewhat in the second half, ultimately finishing sixth in Cy Young voting. Let’s see if Skubal can sustain his first-half excellence en route to some hardware this winter.
It’d be a stretch to call him one of Chicago’s biggest problems amidst this deeply disappointing season — he’s leading the team in homers, after all — but I’m starting to wonder if Christopher Morel is part of the Cubs’ long-term future, considering his lackluster OBP and defensive deficiencies, not to mention the wave of infield prospects climbing the minor-league ladder behind him. He’s such a fun player to watch when he’s rolling, but I’m not sure Morel does enough well across the board to guarantee himself a starting spot moving forward. Maybe a strong finish can change that.
It’s not only that Tyler Fitzgerald just became the first Giant since literally Barry Bonds to homer in five consecutive games; it’s that he did it as a shortstop! This has been a position of serious weakness for San Francisco since Brandon Crawford’s sharp decline and eventual departure. But with his suddenly hot bat, Fitzgerald, long known for his speed and defensive versatility, is emerging in a fairly stunning fashion as a potential salve at the six for San Francisco. The Giants will need all the help they can get if they want to stay relevant in the NL wild-card race, and Fitzgerald sure is doing his part.
After a terrific first two months that had him in All-Star conversations, 25-year-old lefty MacKenzie Gore has trended in the wrong direction since the start of June (6.00 ERA in 42 IP). It has largely been a positive year on the mound for Washington, but with the recent news of righty Josiah Gray needing season-ending elbow surgery, the Nationals could use a strong string of starts from Gore to finish the year if they want to feel good about their 2025 rotation entering the winter.
The Reds made a big bet on Frankie Montas when they made the veteran right-hander their highest-paid player and Opening Day starter, and that hasn’t aged especially well; Cincinnati is 5-13 in Montas’ 18 starts this year. At this point, either Montas will be off-loaded to a contending team as rotation depth ahead of next week’s deadline — a reflection of the collective underperformance of this Reds team as a whole — or he’ll need to pitch a lot better over the final two months if the Reds want to hang around in the NL wild-card picture.
Even if his recent calf injury likely squashed any chance of his being dealt ahead of next week’s deadline, Bo Bichette still stands out as a player I’ll be watching closely, assuming he returns and plays the final six weeks or so. I’m still skeptical that he’s going to be part of Toronto’s long-term plans, and a strong finish could prime him for an eventual blockbuster trade this winter. At the same time, he has shown little evidence this season that a return to All-Star form is in the cards anytime soon, so maybe hopes of a big September are merely wishful thinking.
I want to see what happens next with Reid Detmers. It’s downright shocking how quickly his season went off the rails after he looked truly spectacular in his first four starts (1.19 ERA in 22.2 IP, 30 K, 7 BB). At this point, he has been stuck scuffling in Triple-A for more than a month and hasn’t pitched since July 13. Whether it’s with another organization following a buy-low trade or back in the big leagues with the Angels at some point, I hope Detmers’ talent shines through again in the near future.
Bobby Witt Jr. (296 wRC+) has been the best hitter in baseball in July, and it isn’t particularly close. The next two best bats this month? Both Oakland A’s, believe it or not: Brent Rooker (275 wRC+) and Lawrence Butler (264 wRC+). These are two hitters worth watching in the coming months for very different reasons. Rooker could be one of the best bats moved ahead of next week’s trade deadline, while Butler appears to be blossoming into a core piece of Oakland’s future (even if that future isn’t actually in Oakland). Don’t be surprised if we go into 2025 talking about Butler — who turned 24 a couple of weeks ago — as one of the more exciting young outfielders in the American League.
Allow me to stick with the theme of the best hitters in July and mention No. 4 on the wRC+ leaderboard since July 1: Brenton Doyle. Like Oakland, Colorado is not contending for anything this season but should be using the final few months to figure out which parts of the roster should be set in stone moving forward. And it sure seems like center field at Coors Field has been solved for the foreseeable future.
As a rookie last year, Doyle was arguably the best defensive outfielder in the league but also one of the very worst hitters (43 wRC+). His glove was already so good that any steps forward at the plate would feel like gravy, but fast-forward to today, and Doyle has blasted past any reasonable hope of improvement and become a legitimately good hitter on top of his still elite defense in center, making him one of the more valuable outfielders in the league. It’s perhaps the most remarkable breakout of any player this season and deserves recognition as such.
29. Miami Marlins, 36-65
It’s gotta be Jazz Chisholm Jr., right? Miami appears primed to capitalize on a weak hitter’s trade market by dealing Chisholm and his two-plus years of team control remaining to the highest bidder. What makes Chisholm especially fascinating as a trade chip is how his defensive versatility will be viewed by potential suitors.
Do teams see him as a viable every-day center fielder, the position he has played the most the past two seasons? Would a team with a center fielder and no room in the infield try him in a corner outfield spot just to get his bat? How many teams would move him back to second base or even try him again at shortstop? Of course, whether he hits for his new team will matter more than where he’s standing on the diamond, but Chisholm’s flexibility should drastically widen the scope of teams interested in landing the 26-year-old Bahamian in a potential deadline deal.
30. Chicago White Sox, 27-76
Obviously, any trade involving Garrett Crochet or Luis Robert Jr. is going to be worthy of far more headlines than anything else the White Sox might do over the next week, but I’m awfully curious what Michael Kopech might look like with the right change of scenery at the deadline. We’ve been talking about this dude as one of baseball’s hardest throwers for nearly a decade, yet I can’t shake the feeling that we still haven’t seen the best version of him. His eventual landing spot, assuming he is dealt, will likely influence my level of optimism for a further breakout, but regardless, this feels like someone who will be throwing high-leverage innings for some team come October.
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