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The Baltimore Ravens were the best team in the regular season. They had an MVP quarterback in Lamar Jackson. Then in the playoffs, they started slow and suffered a confusing and devastating loss.
Are we talking about the 2019 season or last season?
The narrative for the Jackson era Ravens is being set. Twice they have had the best team in the NFL and didn’t even make the Super Bowl either time. In 2019, Baltimore went 14-2 just to lose their playoff opener to the Tennessee Titans. Last season, the Ravens took the crown of the NFL’s best team in the regular season with a decisive win over the San Francisco 49ers on Christmas. They went 13-4 and were the No. 1 seed in the AFC again. They led every single game at the two-minute warning of the fourth quarter, until Week 18 when they played backups. Jackson won his second MVP, putting him on a clear path for the Pro Football Hall of Fame. And then the Ravens came out flat against the Kansas City Chiefs and lost in the AFC championship game. Baltimore’s offense, led by the MVP, scored 10 points in that loss. They scored just 12 in that loss to the Titans a few seasons ago.
“I’m angry about losing,” Jackson said after the Chiefs loss. “We were a game away from the Super Bowl. We’ve been waiting all this time, all these moments for an opportunity like this, and we fell short.”
John Harbaugh can speak all he wants about the Ravens’ vision being Jackson retiring as the greatest quarterback ever. He knows that isn’t even a conversation until Jackson wins a Super Bowl. Baltimore is an otherworldly 58-19 in Jackson’s regular season starts, and it doesn’t matter as much as it should. They’re 2-4 in his playoff starts and that’s what everyone focuses on. It’s not necessarily fair but it’s reality.
The concerning part of last season’s playoff loss is the Ravens seemed to panic. The Chiefs took an early 7-0 lead and Baltimore changed its game. The Ravens entirely abandoned the run game, handing it off just six times to running backs even though the Chiefs never led by more than 10 points. Jackson forced a pass to the end zone that was intercepted. Zay Flowers fumbled right before he crossed the goal line. Even with those mistakes the Ravens lost by just seven points, 17-10. They were close, but that’s not good enough.
The Ravens’ problem is that while they are a rock solid franchise and always seem to reload easily, nothing stays the same in the NFL and they’re not guaranteed to be hosting another AFC championship game anytime soon. The Ravens lost defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald, a key to their success the past two seasons, to the Seattle Seahawks’ head coaching job. There were free agency losses at safety, linebacker and the interior offensive line. That can happen when the quarterback gets a huge second contract. Jackson has a $32.4 million cap hit this year.
The Ravens might not repeat their fantastic 2023 regular season. They’re not a sure bet to repeat as division champions in a tough AFC North. That’s what stings about last season’s playoff loss, and the one in 2019 too. Those opportunities are rare.
They’re probably more likely for a franchise like Baltimore, which has had two losing seasons in Harbaugh’s 16 years as head coach. It helps to have one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. There’s no reason Jackson and the Ravens can’t reach a Super Bowl together. But every missed opportunity, like the one last January, will hurt for a long time.
Offseason grade
The Ravens usually are graded on a curve for their offseasons. No team has been better at moving on from high-priced free agents and finding capable replacements from in-house. They’ll be tested again. Linebacker Patrick Queen, edge defender Jadeveon Clowney, safety Geno Stone, guards John Simpson and Kevin Zeitler, offensive tackle Morgan Moses (who was traded to the Jets) and running backs Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins departed. The only free agent addition who got more than $1.8 million per year was running back Derrick Henry. The big move for Baltimore was retaining defensive tackle Justin Madubuike coming off a 13-sack season. Madubuike got a four-year, $98 million deal. The Ravens, as usual, had a draft that got rave reviews. Cornerback Nate Wiggins, offensive lineman Roger Rosengarten and defensive end Adisa Isaac were the team’s first three picks and all three could contribute right away. The Ravens lost a lot and that’s reflected in the grade. Baltimore’s history of developing replacements gives them a benefit of the doubt, however.
Grade: C-
Quarterback report
Lamar Jackson was in a new offense last season, led by coordinator Todd Monken, that promised to have him throw it more and run less. Jackson did hit a career high with 457 passing attempts. And he set career highs in completion percentage, yards and yards per attempt, tied a career-best interception percentage and had the second-best passer rating of his career. Jackson won his second MVP.
Jackson was also still fantastic as a runner. He had 148 attempts, the third-most in his career, and 821 yards. Practically speaking, the Ravens asked Jackson to do more and he was the best player in the NFL.
The big change this offseason was Jackson’s weight. He was 230 pounds in 2022, 215 pounds last season and 205 pounds this offseason. He said the reason was to gain a little bit of agility, which should be scary for opposing defenses that already had a tough time tackling him.
“I’ll say it was important enough to be able to move around a little bit extra, that’s all,” Jackson said, according to the team’s site. “Just so I can be more agile and be able to move more.”
BetMGM odds breakdown
The betting market is still very high on the Ravens. They are third in the Super Bowl odds at 10-to-1 at BetMGM. Their win total is 10.5 with -140 odds on the over (bet $140 to win $100). Baltimore is also favored to win the AFC North at +135. The only real dip in the betting market is for Lamar Jackson’s MVP chances. He is fifth at +1200, which isn’t bad for a player who has won the award twice already. The Ravens had a tough playoff loss and lost some good players this offseason, but the betting market didn’t downgrade them.
Yahoo’s fantasy take
From Yahoo’s Scott Pianowski: “The Ravens have offensive-line questions and Derrick Henry turned 30 in January. If that’s enough to push you off a Henry selection, I understand. But the Ravens found a way to get Gus Edwards into the end zone 13 times last year, and Henry is obviously a superior back to Edwards. Henry also dealt with regular eight-man boxes in Tennessee last year (about a third of the time); Baltimore’s variety of offensive threats should discourage those heavy defensive fronts.
“Henry has never been a big pass-catcher and Lamar Jackson doesn’t throw much to his backs anyway, so Henry gets a ding in any PPR-related format. But this surely looks like a Super Bowl-contending team, and Baltimore figures to lean on Henry for short touchdowns and fourth-quarter carries when salting away a lead. Henry’s Yahoo ADP is notably higher than his global ADP, but I’m comfortable considering him in the second round of drafts, preferably flanked by some signature receivers.”
Stat to remember
Lamar Jackson has led the Ravens in rushing five seasons in a row. That’s mostly due to Jackson being an incredible runner who is 851 yards behind Mike Vick for the most rushing yards by a quarterback in NFL history. But it also has to do with the Ravens’ lack of a star running back through the Jackson era.
The Ravens have a star now. They signed Derrick Henry, who like Jackson should end up in the Pro Football Hall of Fame someday. The worry with Henry is obvious. He’s 30 years old with 2,030 career rushing attempts, and that doesn’t count heavy workloads at Alabama or in the playoffs. Henry has led the NFL in carries four of the past five seasons, and it would have been five-for-five if he didn’t miss half of the 2021 season. On one hand Henry should benefit from rushing lanes opened up by playing alongside an MVP quarterback who is also a big factor in the run game. But Henry is going to slip soon. Last season he posted a 4.2-yards per carry average, his lowest since becoming the Titans’ full-time starter, though Tennessee’s poor offensive line contributed to that. Henry isn’t concerned about the workload or his age catching up to him.
“I feel good,” Henry said, via the Ravens’ site. “I don’t really try to worry about that. It’s kind of funny. Since high school, I probably got 56 carries in a game, 57 the next week. College 44, 46. NFL, 30-35. I really think it’s just your mindset, how you take care of your body. If it works and you feel good, just keep working and doing what you do.”
If nothing else, it’s very, very unlikely the Ravens again suffer a playoff loss with just six handoffs to running backs this season.
Burning question
How much will the Ravens miss Mike Macdonald?
There’s a good reason Macdonald got the Seahawks’ coaching job, and many of his assistants are in high demand around the NFL. He is viewed as a “defensive Sean McVay,” a young and innovative coach on that side of the ball. It’s hard to give him endless praise and also assume the Ravens won’t miss him at all.
Macdonald was a big part of leading the Ravens defense to a season in which it finished first in DVOA, first in points allowed, first in sacks, tied for first in pass yards per play allowed, tied for first in takeaways and first in passer rating allowed. Macdonald is replaced by Zach Orr, a former Ravens linebacker who had just three years as a position coach and has never been a coordinator before. He was on the Ravens’ staff as inside linebackers coach the past two seasons, and perhaps that means there can be a seamless transition. Orr could be the Ravens’ next star defensive coordinator, but we don’t know that yet. We often underrate the loss of a coordinator to a head coaching job and the downgrade that can be for a team (see the 2023 Eagles). We shouldn’t be surprised if the Ravens’ defense takes a step back without its dynamic coordinator.
Best-case scenario
The Ravens were really good last season. That got lost with all the midseason hype for the 49ers, but the Ravens’ dominant win over the 49ers gave them the mythical (and forgettable) title of regular-season champion. They were the best team in the NFL from Week 1 until they kicked off the AFC championship game. And then the Ravens had a bad day against the Chiefs, and still lost by just a touchdown. Lamar Jackson fit Todd Monken’s offense very well, Mark Andrews is still an elite tight end who hopefully won’t miss a large stretch with a leg injury like last season, Zay Flowers had a promising rookie season and the Ravens’ defense was excellent. Jackson could win another MVP award. Derrick Henry could have one more enormous season without constant eight-man fronts focused on him, as was the case with the Titans. The Ravens were the best team in the regular season last season and could do it again. And for anyone who believes Jackson can’t win in the playoffs, despite Baltimore winning more than 75% of his starts, that’s just foolish. Jackson hasn’t won big yet but there’s no reason he can’t. Maybe this is the year.
Nightmare scenario
The last time the Ravens won the fictional regular season title, they took a step back the following season. Baltimore followed up a great 2019 season by going 11-5 in 2020, finishing second in the division and losing 17-3 to the Bills in the divisional round of the playoffs. It’s hard to see the Ravens falling hard, but a season similar to 2020 could happen in a competitive AFC North. The Ravens did lose a lot in the offseason and we just assume Baltimore will have reinforcements. Maybe it won’t be that easy to replace 60 percent of their offensive line from last season or defensive standouts like Patrick Queen, Jadeveon Clowney or Geno Stone. The Ravens might be good, not great, and mostly that’s a problem because it would be one fewer shot for the Ravens to win a Super Bowl with Jackson.
The crystal ball says …
Other than Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid, the best quarterback-coach combination in the NFL has to be Lamar Jackson and John Harbaugh. Both will be Hall of Famers someday. That alone means the Ravens should be good. There’s always a concern with Jackson getting injured — don’t forget that was a major story two seasons ago — but it’s hard to predict. The bigger issues are that the Ravens lost key talent on both sides of the ball as well as a fantastic defensive coordinator in Mike Macdonald, and the AFC North might be the best division in the NFL. It wouldn’t be a shock if Jackson carries Baltimore to another division title and maybe even the AFC’s No. 1 seed again, but I can see a small dip for the Ravens this season. I’ll likely predict Baltimore for a wild-card spot. Maybe playing with less pressure in the postseason would be good for them.
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