2023 Stats
Points per game: 17.9 (27th)
Total yards per game: 304.3 (25th)
Plays per game: 60.5 (26th)
Pass Attempts + Sacks per game: 31.9 (30th)
Dropback EPA per play: -0.06 (25th)
Rush attempts per game: 28.6 (9th)
Rush EPA per play: -0.07 (12th)
Coaching Staff
Mike Tomlin returns for his 18th season with the Steelers and now carries the title as the NFL’s longest-tenured head coach with Bill Belichick out of the game — at least for now. Tomlin’s demand for excellence, coupled with an old-school mindset that includes a physical rushing game complemented by a hard-nosed defense, has resulted in 17 seasons of .500 or better ball. Shockingly, Tomlin has never had a losing season, but his teams have also been close to league average over the last several years.
This toiling in mediocrity has resulted in struggles at the quarterback position, and his team has not won a playoff game since 2016. A 10-7 season in 2023, helmed by Kenny Pickett and Mason Rudolph, ended with a first-round exit against the Buffalo Bills and was thought to put Tomlin on the hot seat heading into this season.
Instead, the Steelers re-upped with Tomlin, signing him to a three-year contract extension this offseason. He also brought in former Falcons head coach Arthur Smith to run the offense after Smith flamed out in Atlanta in just three seasons.
Tomlin isn’t on the hot seat, but he does have his work cut out for him in 2024. If he and the Steelers are to get over their playoff drought, it’s going to take a strong season out of reclamation projects Russell Wilson and/or Justin Fields. Fantasy managers are also banking on Wilson or Fields working out for the sake of their fantasy teams this season. Let’s look at some key players on this revamped Steelers offense and see what we should expect this season.
Passing Game
QB: Russell Wilson, Justin Fields
RB: Najee Harris, Jaylen Warren, Cordarrelle Patterson
WR: George Pickens, Calvin Austin
WR: Van Jefferson, Quez Watkins
WR: Roman Wilson, Scotty Miller
TE: Pat Freiermuth, Darnell Washington
Russell Wilson signed a five-year, $245 million contract with the Broncos in 2022 after the team acquired him in a blockbuster trade with the Seahawks. Wilson’s first season with the Broncos was a disaster, as the team went 5-12 while he threw for 3,524-16-11 in 15 games. The Broncos ranked 32nd in points per game that year and brought in head coach Sean Payton last offseason to right the course.
Things improved under Payton. The team went 8-9 and ranked 19th in points per game (21.0), but Wilson continued to look like a shell of his former self. On the surface, the numbers were fine. Wilson threw for 3,070-26-8 in 15 games but ranked 18th in YPA (6.9) and 20th in ADOT (7.8) amongst qualified quarterbacks (min. 300 dropbacks). His 20.6 percent pressure-to-sack rate was also the fifth-highest amongst the group.
Wilson was 20th in success rate (45.8 percent) and 18th in EPA/play (0.045), never fully gelling with Payton. He was officially released on March 13th and signed with the Steelers on a vet-minimum deal two days later. Now, with Arthur Smith, whose Falcons ranked second in the league in neutral rush rate during his tenure (50 percent), Wilson will be asked to be more of a game manager than win games with his arm. Playing behind a defense that finished top-10 in 2023, Wilson could lead the Steelers to double-digit wins this season, but he shouldn’t be counted on to light up fantasy leagues.
Wilson has finished as a top-12 fantasy quarterback in just 37 percent of his games since 2022. While he still has plenty of utility in superflex leagues, fantasy managers would be wise to hitch their wagons to more reliable quarterbacks in 2024.
Another quarterback hoping to rebuild his career with the Steelers is Justin Fields. Fields officially flamed out in Chicago after three seasons of mediocre play and gaudy sack numbers. Even at his best, Fields was never going to be the answer for the Bears. If you’re a believer in college pressure-to-sack rate and its ability to spot bad pros, you would have immediately been out on Fields. I wrote about P2S% earlier this offseason, ahead of the NFL Draft.
Since entering the league in 2021, Fields has been sacked on 10.7 percent of his dropbacks — the highest total of 42 quarterbacks in the league (min. 500 dropbacks). His 43.1 percent success rate also ranks 37th amongst that same group. Fields possesses high-end fantasy upside despite his struggles, thanks to his rushing ability.
Fields has totaled 2,220 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns on the ground for his career. He’s finished as a top-12 fantasy quarterback in 50 percent of his games and was the QB10 in fantasy points per game (21.8) in 2022. While he’s expected to challenge Wilson for the starting job in camp, Fields will likely open the season as the Steelers’ backup. He can be left off redraft radars for the time being but would have some fringe QB1 upside should he ever draw a start.
With Diontae Johnson now in Carolina, George Pickens takes the mantle as the Steelers’ WR1. The third-year receiver posted a line of 63-1,140-5 last season — all career-highs. Often criticized for his inability to separate, Pickens earned the 17th-highest “open” grade per ESPN Analytics last season and received the seventh-highest overall receiver grade. Pickens is a big play waiting to happen. Despite having arguably the worst quarterback situation of any receiver in the league, Pickens’ 18.1 YPR led all receivers (min. 50 targets) and ranked 12th in receiving yards (405) on deep targets. Pickens has just 11 top-24 PPR weeks in 34 career games (32.4 percent) and has averaged just 11.0 fantasy points per game. His quarterback situation has improved with Wilson and Fields now in town, but the offensive play style may not be conducive to fantasy success on a week-to-week basis. Pickens will inevitably have his moments, but as we’ve seen over his career, they could be few and far between.
The No. 2 receiving option in the Steelers’ offense is shaping up to be Pat Freiermuth. An injury-plagued 2023 limited Freiermuth to just 12 games last season and a line of 32-308-2. It was an incredibly down year for Freiermuth, but he’s reportedly established a good connection with Russell Wilson early in the offseason.
Freiermuth finished 2022 as the TE11 in fantasy points per game after catching 63 passes for 732 yards and two touchdowns. He played a career-high 48.9 percent of his snaps from the slot last season and has been efficient from the slot with his limited opportunities. Amongst 42 tight ends since 2022 (min. 100 routes), Freiermuth ranks sixth in fantasy points per route run from the slot (0.61) and ranks ninth in total yards from the slot (541). His PFF receiving grade in the slot (91.8) trails only Mark Andrews and Travis Kelce.
Under Arthur Smith, the Falcons targeted tight ends 172 times in the slot. It was the fourth-highest total in the league but well behind the Ravens (298) and Chiefs (216). Still, it’s an encouraging sign for Freiermuth, who could provide plenty of fantasy value to drafters who opted to wait on the position. He’s currently going as the TE14 in fantasy drafts but could have a path to a top-10 finish in an offense short on pass-catchers outside of Pickens.
Regarding other Steelers receivers, rookie Roman Wilson is the guy to watch. The Steelers used a third-round pick on Wilson, who went for 48-789-12 in his final year at Michigan while averaging 16.4 YPR. We have yet to get many off-season notes on Wilson, but he’s expected to see a significant role in his rookie year. Wilson played 77 percent of his snaps from the slot over his final two seasons but also has experience on the outside. He averaged an impressive 2.33 YPRR for his college career and has also shown an ability to create after the catch. It’s hard to imagine Wilson having a significant fantasy impact as a rookie, but he could find himself in a WR1 role should Pickens ever miss time.
Third-year receiver Calvin Austin has also received some offseason hype, but he has produced 17 catches for 180 yards and one touchdown during his first two years in the league. Austin is an explosive player who could prove to be a weapon if he can put everything together, but he’s well off the fantasy radar at this time.
Running Game
RB: Najee Harris, Jaylen Warren, Cordarrelle Patterson
OL (L-R): Troy Fautanu, Isaac Seumalo, Zach Frazier, James Daniels, Broderick Jones
Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren should see plenty of run in Arthur Smith’s offense. Last season, Harris led the Steelers’ backfield with a 30 percent opportunity share but saw the majority of his touches come in the running game. Harris totaled 255-1,035-8 on the ground last season (4.1 YPC) but didn’t offer a great return for fantasy managers. After being drafted as a low-end RB1 for much of the offseason, Harris finished the year as the RB31 in PPR points per game (11.6), partly due to the valuable receiving work he saw vultured by Jaylen Warren. Harris averaged 57.5 receptions per season over his first two years but managed just 29-170-0 through the air last season. Harris ran 256 routes to Warren’s 201 but had a TPRR of 0.17 compared to Warren’s 0.28 TPRR.
Harris is going as a low-end RB2 this year, which should insulate him from being the fantasy bust he was last season. Still, the Steelers have declined his fifth-year option, suggesting his time in the Black and Yellow could be coming to an end after 2024. He should continue to lead the Steelers backfield, but it’s no longer a secret that he’s the second-best running back in Pittsburgh’s backfield.
While Harris failed to return value for his fantasy managers, Warren proved to be a great value. Warren went at the 12/13 round turn of fantasy drafts and wound up finishing as the RB29 in fantasy points per game (11.8) while turning in seven top-24 finishes. Warren ranked fifth amongst all running backs in receptions (61) last season, and was 13th in receiving yards (370). He failed to find the end zone on any of his 74 targets, but that didn’t stop him from becoming a valuable option for fantasy managers — particularly Zero RB drafters. Warren should continue to dominate the majority of the backfield targets, giving him plenty of utility as a low-end RB2.
Cordarrelle Patterson, who spent the last three seasons in Atlanta with Arthur Smith, is a wild card in the Steelers offense. After breaking out for 1,166 yards from scrimmage and 11 touchdowns in 2021, Patterson totaled 817 yards and eight touchdowns in 2022 but petered out down the stretch. Last season wasn’t much better, as he managed just 219 YFS and one touchdown while averaging a career-low 3.7 yards per touch.
Patterson will reportedly play a “Joker role” in the Steelers’ offense this season, but his most significant contributions could come on special teams rather than in the offense.
Forever a darling of the fantasy community, Patterson’s price in fantasy leagues is palatable enough to make him a worthwhile dart throw for those interested in seeing if he can reignite his fantasy ceiling. His dwindling usage over the last two years isn’t an encouraging sign. Still, his familiarity with Smith’s offense and ability to be used all over the field makes him an intriguing option.
Win Total
The Steelers are sitting on an over/under of 8.5 wins on the DraftKings Sportsbook. Knowing Tomlin’s ability to push his team over the .500 hump, it’s hard to bet against him any given season — especially when you consider the upgrade he made at quarterback this offseason. Unfortunately, they have the toughest strength of schedule of any team in the league, per Sharp Football Analysis, which determines a team’s SOS based on their Vegas projected win totals. Playing in a stout AFC North doesn’t make things any easier. Tomlin continuously keeps his team in the fight, but if there were ever a time to bet on his first sub-.500 season, it could be this season.
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