Crimes reported in Austin halfway through the year are down to the lowest levels in five years for the same reporting period, data show, though homicide numbers are higher than before the COVID-19 pandemic and auto thefts remain inflated.
The drop in crime follows a trend that the Austin Police Department had said in April made it “cautiously optimistic” that it would continue decreasing throughout the year.
“I am more optimistic than before,” said Auzzie Krobatsch, the Police Department’s acting data initiatives and analytics strategy officer. “I want to again highlight that (I’m) cautiously optimistic, but it does, in fact, look like we are seeing that downturn … and we’re continuing to see that trend, which is definitely reason to be optimistic.”
To record crime data, the Police Department uses use the FBI’s National Incident-Based Reporting System, which it switched to in 2019. The system splits reported crimes into three categories: crimes against persons, property and society. Crime reporting data for January through June for each of the years Austin has available show the first half of 2024 as having recorded the lowest number of total crimes.
The only category that’s increased this year is crimes against society, which is generally made up of drug arrests. Crimes against persons and property are both down by nearly 10% and 13% respectively compared with 2020.
Krobatsch said arrests are also increasing this year, and that while crime does appear to be going down, she said police are still responding to a large number of high-priority incidents. She believes this could be due to a growing number of suicides in Austin this year.
Earlier this year, Austin police released a new crime data portal, which includes a crime dashboard going back to 2020.
Homicides, auto thefts remain high in Austin
Although most categories show crime is going down in Austin, the number of homicides reported from January through June is almost double what it was over the same period in 2019.
Crime analyst Jeff Asher said even with more reported homicides, Austin’s rate is generally lower compared with other major cities, adding that nothing about Austin’s crime numbers stood out as abnormal. He also said six months of data for this year is not enough to draw conclusions.
“Generally, Austin has, compared to other places, less murder, less gun violence,” Asher said. “In terms of property crime (Austin’s) seeing, about average. … What stands out is that nothing really stands out, in that (Austin’s) kind of seen similar trends to everywhere: large percent decline in murder, generally declining violent (and) property crime, although in a much softer, gentler scope.”
During the pandemic, homicides shot up nationwide, with Austin setting a record in 2021 for the most killings in a year. Since then, reported homicides have continued to drop, though the 29 that have been cataloged through June reflect a hike compared with the 14 reported in the first six months in 2019 and the 23 reported over that period in 2020.
According to the Council on Criminal Justice, which recently released a midyear crime analysis, two-thirds of the 29 cities studied also had homicide rates higher thus far in 2024 compared with 2019.
Auto thefts have also been reported in high numbers each month this year, as Austin follows a national trend. The data currently shows that June had the lowest instances of car thefts since January 2023. However, every other month this year has seen a high number of car thefts.
Asher said the national increase in auto thefts, which was spurred by a social media challenge, is something rarely seen in crime trends.
Is crime in Austin going down or is reporting decreasing?
Crime data can be tricky, as many crimes are often unreported. However, Asher said this isn’t a new phenomenon and there’s no evidence to suggest that more people aren’t reporting crimes.
According to Pew Research, in 2022 crimes such as theft of personal property and rapes were only reported about a quarter of the time.
“I tend to say that you should think of the trends that we’re looking at as accurate, but not precise,” Asher said.
Krobatsch said underreporting of crimes is “absolutely a statistical factor” she considers when looking at crime data. However, she believes violent crimes in general are going down in Austin this year based on the reported data.
Krobatsch said it’s crucial for everyone who is a victim of a crime to report it because even if police aren’t able to make an arrest, it could help solve a crime at a later date.
“We need to be able to communicate to our community, that your report is not just going into a system, we have people looking at this information,” she said. “I don’t want people to lose faith and not report it, even if it feels like it’s not going anywhere.”
This article originally appeared on Austin American-Statesman: Austin crime reaches lowest levels in 5 years, homicides remain high
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