(Bloomberg) — Nicolás Maduro is trying to ride out international skepticism about his declaration of victory in Venezuela, with all eyes turning to how aggressively he responds the opposition’s claim he stole the election.
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The next 24 hours will be key after the authoritarian president’s late-night announcement that he’d defeated his main rival, Edmundo González, in Sunday’s vote. Maduro can now either succumb to pressure and negotiate with banned opposition leader María Corina Machado or crack down and risk returning to diplomatic isolation.
Outside powers were already lining up on either side, with Russia and China rallying behind Maduro and the US expressing immediate concern with the socialist president’s claim to have retained the presidency by 51.2% to 44.2% for González. Significantly, left-leaning regional players Brazil, Colombia and Chile demanded to see a thorough accounting of the vote.
“I suspect the US and the EU and others are busy talking to each other before anyone announces measures,” Charles Shapiro, a former US ambassador to Venezuela, said in interview. “The most important thing now from the perspective of the governments is how do you turn this around quickly before it solidifies.”
Machado asserted Sunday night that González, her stand-in candidate, secured 70% support, citing some 40% of the tabulated votes that her coalition had overseen. Venezuelans, she argued, had clearly opted for change after 11 years of economic ruin under Maduro.
Venezuela’s electoral authority — controlled by Maduro allies — is due to speak on Monday, and Maduro’s top prosecutor has scheduled a midday press conference at which he could announce new measures against the opposition.
A day after the contested vote, the streets of Caracas streets were empty with little public transportation running and busy commercial areas shut down. There was scarce military and police presence, with many Venezuelans seemingly staying home in wait-and-see mode.
Investors were skeptical of Maduro’s victory claim, with Venezuela’s sovereign bonds maturing in 2027 losing 1.4 cents to trade around 20 cents on the dollar, according to indicative pricing data compiled by Bloomberg. Securities issued by state-owned oil company Petróleos de Venezuela SA also dropped.
While US Secretary of State Antony Blinken swiftly voiced “serious concerns that the result announced does not reflect the will or the votes of the Venezuelan people,” it took longer for Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva to react.
“I’m not going to endorse any fraud narrative, there needs to be transparency,” Celso Amorim, Lula’s top foreign affairs adviser, said in a statement on Monday. “We’re following the developments to come to a conclusion based on facts.”
Chilean President Gabriel Boric called the results “difficult to believe,” saying his country wouldn’t recognize unverifiable totals. Gustavo Petro’s leftist administration in Colombia also asked to see verifiable proof of Maduro’s victory.
“I think he’s much more likely to listen to Lula and Petro than he is to the United States right at this moment,” said Shannon O’Neil of the Council on Foreign Relations in New York. “The US pressure has been there and will continue to be there and they’ve dealt with it.”
Crushing sanctions applied by the Trump administration effectively banned Venezuelan oil imports to the US — which had been its biggest customer for nearly a century. That accelerated a collapse in the production of crude, which accounts for virtually all of Venezuela’s foreign revenue. Output is currently around 900,000 barrels a day, less than a third of the 3 million barrels it produced daily in 1998, the year Maduro’s predecessor, Hugo Chavez, was elected.
The US relaxed some of those sanctions ahead of the election, before reimposing penalties in response to Maduro’s efforts to clamp down on his political opposition.
Schreiner Parker, managing director for Latin America at Rystad Energy AS, said it’s unlikely the Biden administration will want to resort to a full snap-back of sanctions ahead of the US presidential election out of fear of destabilizing energy prices.
“What happens after November or January of next year is a different question,” he said.
–With assistance from Nicolle Yapur.
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