NFL training camp season has arrived, ladies and gentlemen. Prepare for the onslaught of information, rumors and hype pieces. But fantasy football managers shouldn’t be wary of the influx of info — Scott Pianowski has you covered with one key nugget to know for every team. Next up is the NFC North.
[NFC fantasy footnotes: South | East | North | West ]
[AFC fantasy footnotes: South | East | North | West (coming soon) ]
Keenan Allen didn’t show much slippage in his age-31 season, with efficiency metrics that were right around his career averages. But the Chargers forced the ball to Allen constantly — he commanded 11.5 targets per game — and it’s unlikely the Bears will give him similar volume.
Chicago’s passing game has plenty of talent, but there’s also a crowding issue. DJ Moore is coming off a breakthrough year, setting career bests for catches, yards and touchdowns. Cole Kmet has been a top-10 fantasy tight end for two straight years, and rookie wideout Rome Odunze was the ninth overall pick in the draft. Rookie quarterback Caleb Williams is the winner in all this, as he’s stepping into an unusually-deep offense for a player drafted first overall. Who Williams clicks with the quickest is anyone’s guess.
And keep in mind the Bears don’t need Williams to immediately carry the team, given how well the Chicago defense played in the second half of last year. Perhaps the initial offensive game plans will err on the conservative side. Allen’s ADP is in a reasonable pocket through early Yahoo drafts (WR30), but given his age and change of address, he’s not someone I’ll be selecting proactively.
Much has been made of Green Bay’s historical luck at quarterback, recently transitioning from Brett Favre to Aaron Rodgers to Jordan Love. But perhaps the Packers are making the most of that luck. Love’s tied to a deep receiving corps — with apologies to the Steelers, the Packers probably mine the draft for pass-catchers better than anyone — and a brilliant play designer in Matt LaFleur. Love certainly looked like a superstar in the second half of 2023, posting 18 touchdowns and a 112.7 rating against just one interception over his final eight starts.
The quarterback position is uncommonly deep for 2024, which makes it easy on managers. You can draft a strong candidate in so many pockets. But as long as the Yahoo market is going to allow me to take Love as the QB10, he’s going to be one of my preferred targets.
I keep talking about wanting to build my fantasy teams around wide receivers, with an anchor running back to the side. One of the main reasons that strategy makes sense is because there’s such a deep pool of reasonably priced RB2 candidates. David Montgomery is high on that target list.
Obviously Montgomery isn’t going to have the Detroit backfield to himself; Jahmyr Gibbs is too good. But the Lions don’t have a running quarterback, and they don’t feature any other running backs. Montgomery feels like a lock for double-digit touches every week and a high share of the goal-line equity. And obviously he’s working behind a dominant offensive line, perhaps the best unit in the league. Boring value isn’t the most exciting fantasy strategy, but it usually gets good mileage.
You have my permission to draft Justin Jefferson with confidence — let’s start with that. Keep that thought in mind as we examine the Vikings offense in general.
The Minnesota passing game was supposed to fall apart when Kirk Cousins got hurt last year, but the wounds weren’t as bad as expected. Sure, efficiency was a problem, but the Vikings still made explosive plays. Nick Mullens went for 8.8 YPA in his three starts, and Jaren Hall managed 8.4 YPA. The moral of this story: head coach Kevin O’Connell knows how to design a downfield passing game.
The hope is that Sam Darnold can be a short-term solution for the Vikings, with rookie J.J. McCarthy a long-term solution. Both of them come with caveats — Darnold’s six-year career has been checkered, and McCarthy operated a run-first offense at Michigan. But O’Connell has earned the benefit of the doubt, and so has Jefferson. The signature wideout racked up a juicy 30-476-2 line in his final four starts last year, despite Minnesota’s motley crew of quarterbacks.
It’s reasonable that CeeDee Lamb, Tyreek Hill and Ja’Marr Chase have earlier ADPs than Jefferson this summer, and some will prefer Amon-Ra St. Brown to Jefferson, too. But Jefferson certainly belongs in the middle of the first round, and he has a fair chance to be the overall WR1 at season’s end.
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