As chances for tropical wave development increased overnight, all eyes remain on the forecast for Volusia and Flagler counties as well as other areas throughout Florida.
The tropical wave approaching Florida and the U.S. has now been designated as Invest 97L by the National Hurricane Center. Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency for most of Florida on Thursday evening.
The National Hurricane Center is now giving a low chance — 20% — for development over the next 48 hours. Chances for development over the next seven days remains the same, at 60%.
Forecasters with the Hurricane Center said a tropical depression could form this weekend or early next week over the eastern Gulf of Mexico or near the Florida Peninsula.
What impact could the tropical wave have on Volusia and Flagler counties?
There’s still a lot of uncertainty about what impact, if any, the system could have on Volusia and Flagler counties, said Derrick Weitlich, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Melbourne.
“There has been a pretty significant shift of the models into better agreement showing development more likely into the eastern Gulf of Mexico,” Weitlich said. “The latest outlook from the Hurricane Center states that environmental conditions will be more conducive toward development as this tropical wave shifts past the Greater Antilles into the eastern Gulf area.”
Latest models indicate that a tropical depression could form this weekend or early next week in the eastern Gulf or near the Florida peninsula, Weitlich said.
“Right now, chances for formation over next seven days remain at 60%, a medium chance. Over the weekend timeframe, there’s a low 20% chance for tropical development.”
If sustained winds reach 39 mph, it could become Tropical Storm Debby, the fourth named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.
Beyond that, it’s still too soon to forecast when and where the system might impact the state, he said.
“The main point is there’s still a lot of uncertainty about the details of what impacts might be across the area. Regardless of the development of this system, our rain chances will be increasing into the weekend and early next week, as well as the threat of locally heavy rainfall.
“Flooding concerns will be on the rise, but to what degree is still in question at this time. Locally heavy rainfall concerns will be increasing as we go through the weekend and into early next week.”
Right now, the best thing to do is make sure to be prepared for a storm, Weitlich said.
Hurricane season preparation: What supplies do you need for a storm? Here’s a list
“Keep a close eye on the forecast and see how the forecast changes. Go over your hurricane plans and have an emergency supply kit in place. If this one isn’t doesn’t impact Central Florida, there could be another one this hurricane season. It’s good to have those things in place.”
Will there be more rain, extreme heat this week in Volusia, Flagler?
At the same time, daily chances of at least isolated to scattered lightning storms are forecast to continue through the weekend and into early next week, according to a hazardous weather outlook issued Thursday by the NWS in Melbourne.
Stronger storms capable of gusty winds, frequent lightning strikes and torrential rainfall will be possible.
Heat concerns continue into late week due to a combination of high relative humidity and increasing temperatures. Peak afternoon heat indexes are forecast to reach up to 107 and possibly as high as 110 into late this week.
On Thursday, a heat advisory was issued from 11 a.m.-6 p.m. for all areas of east central Florida. Highs in the low-90s near the coast and mid-90s across the interior, combined with high humidity, will produce peak heat index values from 105 to 110 degrees Thursday afternoon, the advisory states.
The area can expect up to one to two hours of heat index values near 108 to 110 degrees.
Those spending time outdoors are advised to take breaks in an air-conditioned building or shade and drink plenty of water to avoid heat stress. There could be additional heat advisories issued on Friday and Saturday, depending on conditions, Weitlich said.
A moderate risk for dangerous rip currents is expected to continue into the weekend.
Similar conditions are expected in Flagler County.
Daytona weather radar
Extended forecast for Daytona Beach
Friday: A 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2 p.m. Sunny, with a high near 90 and nighttime low around 77.
Saturday: A 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 90 and nighttime low around 78.
Sunday: A 60% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 89 and nighttime low around 77.
Monday: A 60% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 90 and a nighttime low around 77.
Tuesday: A 60% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 89 and nighttime low around 77.
Wednesday: A 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 90.
Extended forecast for Palm Coast
Friday: A 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2 p.m. Mostly sunny, with a high near 88 and nighttime low around 77. Heat index values as high as 105.
Saturday: A 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms after 11 a.m. Mostly sunny, with a high near 87 and nighttime low around 77.
Sunday: A 70% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 85 and nighttime low around 77.
Monday: A 70% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 83 and nighttime low around 76.
Tuesday: A 60% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 85 and nighttime low around 77.
Wednesday: A 60% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 85.
This article originally appeared on The Daytona Beach News-Journal: How will Invest 97L impact Volusia and Flagler counties?
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