Debby will hit the Florida Big Bend Monday morning – likely as a hurricane.
Northeast Florida/Southeast Georgia concerns are centered around heavy rain – possibly very heavy, rough seas & surf, a high rip current risk & a few tornadoes/waterspouts. Winds should be gusty but not severe from Highway 301 to the beaches but will more significant & potentially damaging from Lake City to Waycross.
Florida is the “fork in the road” for direction of movement & especially the forward speed.
There is the potential for quite rapid strengthening upon approach to landfall.
Heads up for all of Florida, the Eastern Gulf coast & the U.S. east coast.
Gusty squalls of heavy rain & storms will impact Florida, Georgia & the coastal Carolina’s through midweek.
A reminder that Jax/NE Fl./SE Ga. will be on the “messy” east side of the storm.
Realize impacts from Debby will occur many miles from the center & OUTSIDE of the forecast cone.
Forecasts are still in flux & subject to change
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Specifics primarily for NE Fl./SE Ga. given *current* forecast track:
Rainfall: Severe flooding is legitimate concern. Amounts through Wed. will average 6-12″, locally more. As much as 10-15″ possibly nearing 2 feet is well within the realm of ‘possibility’ from Lake City to Waycross eastward across SE Ga. as Debby slows & possibly even stalls. A strong/steady wind from the south Monday may push water from the St. Johns River into parts of downtown Jacksonville. The more north & west over N. Fl & SE Ga., the heavier the rain.
Wind: sustained winds will average 20-30 mph with gusts 40-50 mph from Highway 301 to the coast though some higher speeds will be possible at/near the beaches due to less friction. Sustained winds may peak Monday at 50-60 mph with gusts 70+ mph from Lake City to Waycross due to the closer proximity to the center.
Tornadoes/waterspouts: Isolated threat Sunday afternoon increasing later Sunday night through Monday/Monday night.
Ocean: Seas will average 7-12 feet off the Ga. & Fl. coast, possibly higher by Tuesday depending on exactly where Debby is & how strong. Surf will build to 6-10+ feet. The onshore wind component will not be long lasting which is a good thing for the beaches.
Rip Currents: A high to very high rip current risk at area beaches. The best advice is to stay out of the ocean.
Storm Surge: Little. The majority of the flooding will be due to rainfall.
Power Outages: Sporadic for the I-95 corridor but more widespread & significant from Waycross, Ga. to Lake City, Fl.
Here’s a look at your 7-day forecast:
RIGHT NOW: Mostly cloudy, breezy, very humid with bands of rain, a few storms moving northward across primarily NE Fl.
THE TROPICS: Another tropical wave is approaching the Caribbean. This has at least some potential for longer term development – next name “Ernesto”… another wave has just come off the African coast & bears watching.
TONIGHT: Evening & late night showers & storms…. becoming breezy. Low: 78
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy & windy periods of showers & t’storms. High: 85
MONDAY NIGHT: On-&-off showers & storms, windy. Low: 77
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy & breezy with showers & t’storms. High: 85
WEDNESDAY: Partly to mostly cloudy & breezy with scattered showers & storms. High: 86
THURSDAY: Partly sunny with scattered showers & storms. High: 89
FRIDAY: Partly sunny with scattered showers & storms. High: 90
SATURDAY: Partly sunny with scattered showers & t’storms. High: 91
SUNDAY: Partly sunny with scattered showers & storms. High: 91
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