The Run Home after Round 21, predicted ladder, who will make top eight and finals, ladder predictor, analysis, fixture, latest news – MASHAHER

The most shocking result of the season has put the chasing pack finally within reach of Sydney. Plus is it Carlton vs Hawthorn for the last spot in the eight?

This is The Run Home, where Foxfooty.com.au analyses every club’s remaining fixture and tries to predict how the rest of the year will play out.

Which teams could take advantage of an easy draw to climb the ladder, and which clubs could tumble down the table based on a tough run of games?

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How does The Run Home work?

The below projections predict each game on a percentage chance basis, and then use those odds to give each team a projected win total.

For example, we might say two teams have a 50 per cent chance each of winning a very even game. So they’d each get 0.5 projected wins for their total. If it’s an almost certain blowout, it might be 90-10, so the favourite gets 0.9 projected wins. That’s why almost all teams have a projection that’s not a round number.

It’s all about probability, and it’s more accurate than trying to tip wins and losses, because no-one can tip nine every round.

It also means the predicted win totals are naturally conservative at the top, and optimistic at the bottom – and it’s hard for teams to catch up to sides who are multiple wins ahead of them (which is a fair reflection of reality). If you’re able to win a bunch of 50-50s, you’ll make these projections look silly, but that’s not something anyone can predict anyway.

Think of the projected win totals as the average result if you played the season out 100 times.

PROJECTED WEEK 1 OF FINALS

First Qualifying Final (1st hosts 4th): Sydney Swans vs Port Adelaide at the SCG

First Elimination Final (5th hosts 8th): Fremantle vs Carlton at Optus Stadium

Second Elimination Final (6th hosts 7th): Western Bulldogs vs GWS Giants at the MCG

Second Qualifying Final (2nd hosts 3rd): Brisbane Lions vs Geelong at the Gabba

PROJECTED FINAL LADDER

1. Sydney Swans (16.1 projected wins)

2. Brisbane Lions (15.4)

3. Geelong (14.7)

4. Port Adelaide (14.45)

5. Fremantle (14.3)

6. Western Bulldogs (14.25)

7. GWS Giants (14.2)

8. Carlton (14)

9. Hawthorn (12.95)

10. Essendon (12.75)

11. Collingwood (12.2)

12. Melbourne (11.4)

13. Gold Coast Suns (10.6)

14. St Kilda (9.35)

15. Adelaide Crows (8.55)

16. West Coast Eagles (4.75)

17. North Melbourne (4)

18. Richmond (3.05)

Note: The ladder & projected finals do not take percentage into account, and are purely determined by projected wins. From next week we will be using percentage as a tiebreaker.

KEY TALKING POINTS

– Sydney no longer looks locked into top spot, though we still have them favoured to finish first, even after the bizarre scenes on Saturday night. Fremantle losing makes it much more likely the Swans will host a qualifying final;

– Brisbane is right there if the Swans stumble again, and clearly looks like the flag favourite, with a top-two finish looking very likely;

– Throw a blanket over Fremantle, Geelong, Port Adelaide, GWS and the Western Bulldogs for the last top-four spots. We have the Cats in there because their draw is easier than the Power or Giants’ ones, though we have less confidence in the Cats’ form. The Bulldogs and Dockers are big chances to finish 3-0 and earn the double chance, though;

– If one of those teams is going to miss the eight, it’s the Giants, as their remaining draw of Brisbane away, Freo at home and Bulldogs away is pretty damn brutal. And there’s a very real chance 13 wins isn’t enough;

– Carlton vs Hawthorn next week is almost an elimination final. It’s definitely must-win for the Hawks, since they’d be level on 12 wins with Richmond and North to come if they win, but two games out of the eight if they lose;

– Even if the Blues lose, they have a path to 14 wins with West Coast and to end the year. Which is why the Giants, Cats, Power and Bulldogs aren’t totally safe if the Hawks get up next week;

– Essendon would be bloody unlucky to miss with 13 and a half wins, and that’s possible… though they’d need to beat Brisbane or Sydney so we still have them as outsiders;

– Collingwood and Melbourne need to go 3-0 to end the season to have any realistic chance of playing finals;

– Gold Coast is out.

Below, all 18 clubs are listed and analysed in the current ladder order.

Remaining fixture difficulty is calculated using the average percentage of remaining opponents. This naturally advantages teams with a strong percentage (because they can’t play themselves) and vice versa, and does not take into account the location of the game nor its timing, but is a basic metric of how tough the remaining fixture is.

1. SYDNEY SWANS (14-6, 126.1%)

Remaining games

Round 22: Collingwood at the SCG

Round 23: Essendon at Marvel Stadium

Round 24: Adelaide Crows at the SCG

Remaining fixture difficulty: 8th-easiest

How many more wins do they need to play finals? Already there

…what the hell was that? Not only are they losing games but their massive percentage lead has disappeared – they’ve lost almost 20 points of it in three weeks! And look, you can win the premiership after a late-season slide. The Magpies lost three of four last year; heck, remember when Richmond had that weird St Kilda loss in 2017, when they were one goal to 14 at halftime? Maybe that’s what this ends up being for the Swans but they have given up pretty much their entire lead on the chasing pack. There is at least SOME good news left; they’ve just gone through the hardest part left on their fixture, and they’re still virtually two wins clear of Port Adelaide, GWS and Geelong. And things would’ve been a lot scarier if Fremantle had won; they’re still two games back as well. All of this means the Swans would still really need to stuff things up to miss a home qualifying final, and they should still be good enough to beat three teams that probably aren’t playing finals – two of them at home. But for the first time in months we have to consider something other than Sydney finishing on top of the ladder.

Fox Footy’s projection: 16.1 wins, finishing 1st

2. BRISBANE LIONS (13-6-1, 125.1%)

Remaining games

Round 22: GWS Giants at the Gabba

Round 23: Collingwood at the MCG

Round 24: Essendon at the Gabba

Remaining fixture difficulty: 8th-hardest

How many more wins do they need to play finals? Probably safe now, one more and it’s definite

Seven rounds ago they were 13th, and six wins behind Sydney. Now they are outright second and one win behind. It took the Swans falling apart too, but the Lions are taking full advantage, well and truly well-positioned for a home qualifying final. Betting markets now have them as flag favourites and Fremantle’s loss puts Chris Fagan’s side in a fantastic position to remain at the Gabba all through September. Though they’re not locked in the top four just yet; Sydney’s loss hurts by keeping Port Adelaide in the mix, but that’s balanced out by the Swans now being catchable. One more slip up from the ladder leaders, and Brisbane could be minor premiers for the first time in club history; the Bears never did it and Fitzroy last did it in 1913. It’s been a crazy season and it could yet get crazier.

Fox Footy’s projection: 15.4 wins, finishing 2nd

3. PORT ADELAIDE (13-7, 113.6%)

Remaining games

Round 22: Melbourne at the MCG

Round 23: Adelaide Crows at Adelaide Oval

Round 24: Fremantle at Optus Stadium

Remaining fixture difficulty: 6th-hardest

How many more wins do they need to play finals? Some chance they’re safe now, should be safe with one

Jeez, what a fortnight from the Power! They’ve probably locked themselves into the eight with that staggeringly good win over Sydney – if they go 0-3 they’ll be in some strife but seriously if they go 0-3 after THAT, then let’s all just give up tipping games forever. With the next fortnight looking pretty damn winnable, the Power are a massive chance at grabbing a top-four spot. Fremantle losing really helps them here, since it makes it more likely that 15 wins plus a strong percentage earns you the double chance. And either way Round 24 against the Dockers is looking more and more like a top-four decider. So if they can just win one of their next two, they’ll give themselves the chance to set up a solid September run.

Fox Footy’s projection: 14.45 wins, finishing 4th

4. GWS GIANTS (13-7, 111.2%)

Remaining games

Round 22: Brisbane Lions at the Gabba

Round 23: Fremantle at ENGIE Stadium

Round 24: Western Bulldogs at Mars Stadium

Remaining fixture difficulty: Hardest

How many more wins do they need to play finals? Some chance they’re safe now, should be safe with one

Their next three weeks are brutal so the Giants absolutely needed to bank these recent wins, including Sunday’s victory over Hawthorn. Their fixture being so tough makes it so, so hard to predict where they’ll finish – they’re obviously in the top four mix, as you can see from the ladder, but they could easily miss the eight entirely if they drop their last three. One more win, which is most likely to come over Freo at home in Round 23, should guarantee GWS their spot in September. But if they drop their next two that Round 24 clash with the Bulldogs will be absolutely enormous; it’d probably be win-and-in, maybe requiring one or two other results to go their way at worst.

Fox Footy’s projection: 14.2 wins, finishing 7th

5. GEELONG (13-7, 108.9%)

Remaining games

Round 22: Fremantle at Optus Stadium

Round 23: St Kilda at Marvel Stadium

Round 24: West Coast Eagles at GMHBA Stadium

Remaining fixture difficulty: 5th-easiest

How many more wins do they need to play finals? Some chance they’re safe now, should be safe with one

The margins are so tight this season; a loss to the Crows would’ve both destroyed the idea that GMHBA Stadium is a fortress (it has already been breached way too often recently), and put the Cats at serious risk of dropping out of the eight. Instead, they’re probably a win away from September. While Freo in the west is tough, and St Kilda at Marvel is scarier than the ladder suggests, the Cats get their bunnies in Round 24; not just West Coast, but West Coast at Kardinia Park. There is not a team that hates a venue more than the Eagles hate the Cattery – they have lost nine straight games there by an average of 70 points. (Heck, even Sydney thrashed them down there, in a fixture that looks utterly bonkers until you remember Covid happened.) So if Geelong gets stuck on 13 wins from here something insane has happened. They should get to 14 which almost certainly keeps them safe, and if they can find a 15th as well, the top four is within reach (though Port Adelaide thrashing Sydney hurts the Cats’ chances). We are projecting the Cats for third because we’re more confident they’ll win two games than we are about the Power or Giants; on form they are not a top-four team.

Fox Footy’s projection: 14.7 wins, finishing 3rd

6. FREMANTLE (12-7-1, 116.1%)

Remaining games

Round 22: Geelong at Optus Stadium

Round 23: GWS Giants at ENGIE Stadium

Round 24: Port Adelaide at Optus Stadium

Remaining fixture difficulty: 5th-hardest

How many more wins do they need to play finals? Probably safe with one, small chance they’re already locked in

That one hurts. Losing to Essendon at the MCG makes it a whole lot less likely the Dockers will play at the venue again this year – because it’s gonna be tough to finish top-two from here. The top four is still reachable though; hard to imagine Freo missing the double chance if they finish 3-0, and if they finish 2-1 while beating the right teams they can get there too. After all the three teams they play are also fighting for a top four spot. If absolutely everything goes right they can still host a qualifying final, or even finish on top, but they probably needed to beat Essendon for that. And if they lose to Geelong next week things’ll get a bit tense for them making the eight at all…

Fox Footy’s projection: 14.3 wins, finishing 5th

7. WESTERN BULLDOGS (12-8, 122.4%)

Remaining games

Round 22: Adelaide Crows at Adelaide Oval

Round 23: North Melbourne at Marvel Stadium

Round 24: GWS Giants at Mars Stadium

Remaining fixture difficulty: 4th-easiest

How many more wins do they need to play finals? Likely safe with one, definitely safe with two

They just keep winning, and while the Bulldogs are still pretty close to the edge of the eight, it’s pretty unlikely they miss it from here. Surely they take care of business against North Melbourne, so the worst-case scenario would be losing to Adelaide in Adelaide, and then having the GWS game in Round 24 be a mini elimination final. And even then, 13 wins with their strong percentage could still be enough. Looking up instead of down is getting pretty exciting too; Port Adelaide’s smashing of Sydney even makes the Swans catchable, though they’d still need the ladder leaders to lose twice. At the very least if the Dogs win their next two, as you’d expect, the top four is very attainable. And on form they deserve to be there.

Fox Footy’s projection: 14.25 wins, finishing 6th

8. CARLTON (12-8, 112.1%)

Remaining games

Round 22: Hawthorn at the MCG

Round 23: West Coast Eagles at Optus Stadium

Round 24: St Kilda at Marvel Stadium

Remaining fixture difficulty: 3rd-easiest

How many more wins do they need to play finals? Some chance they’re safe with one, should be safe with two

So that was a bad weekend for the Blues – being 11-4 with a 39-point first quarter lead over the Giants feels a long, long time ago. With GWS, Port Adelaide, Geelong and the Bulldogs all winning, it’s Carlton on the bubble of the eight, and next week’s clash with the Hawks is absolutely massive. (And it’s exclusively live on Fox Footy!) The Blues still have the edges of a strong percentage, 12 wins in the bank and a pretty kind last fortnight, so they should still reach 14 wins from here and they should still make the eight because of it… but they have lost almost all of their margin for error. Even if the Blues lose to the Hawks they should stay ahead of the victors on percentage, but then the Hawks have an even easier last two weeks, so that gap can be made up. It’s not total panic stations, because Michael Voss’ men are good enough to win two more games, but jeez it’s gonna be tight now and it wasn’t supposed to be this stressful!

Fox Footy’s projection: 14 wins, finishing 8th

9. ESSENDON (11-8-1, 95.9%)

Remaining games

Round 22: Gold Coast Suns at Marvel Stadium

Round 23: Sydney Swans at Marvel Stadium

Round 24: Brisbane Lions at the Gabba

Remaining fixture difficulty: 3rd-hardest

How many more wins do they need to play finals? Should be safe with two, small chance they make it with one

Well hang on now. The Bombers at least have a shot at saving their season, thanks to their upset of the Dockers. They should beat Gold Coast next week and that’d put them on 12 and a half wins with two games left – that’s a pretty good spot to be in! Especially with Sydney seemingly beatable now. There’s some chance they miss finals with 13 and a half wins (Freo’s percentage lead is hurting them here), but nobody has even missed with 13 before, so it’d be pretty bonkers! We wouldn’t be tipping Essendon to make it but we can’t rule it out either, especially if Carlton keep losing. Just bank the win over the Suns and then see what you can do in the final fortnight. (Though we get the feeling this is just getting Bombers fans’ hopes up in order to dash them again.)

Fox Footy’s projection: 12.75 wins, finishing 10th

10. HAWTHORN (11-9, 104.1%)

Remaining games

Round 22: Carlton at the MCG

Round 23: Richmond at the MCG

Round 24: North Melbourne at UTAS Stadium

Remaining fixture difficulty: Easiest

How many more wins do they need to play finals? Some chance they’re safe with two, should be safe with three

That’s one massive chance gone and GWS may no longer be catchable, but the Hawks get another chance next week, thanks to Collingwood knocking off Carlton. Sunday’s game is almost an elimination final; if the Hawks lose they’re in massive trouble, while if they win, the Blues may still be ahead on percentage but the gap won’t be much. And while Carlton has a pretty comfortable last two weeks, the Hawks’ is even easier, giving them the chance to either build percentage OR take full advantage of a Blues stumble. Unless something crazy happens above them (the Giants could still go 0-3 from here), it seems like it’s Carlton vs Hawthorn for the last spot in the eight, and while Carlton can afford the loss next week Hawthorn cannot. It’s the club’s biggest game since, what, the 2018 finals? (Oh and don’t worry too much about Essendon. They won’t finish above the Hawks unless they upset Sydney and/or Brisbane.)

Fox Footy’s projection: 12.95 wins, finishing 9th

11. COLLINGWOOD (10-8-2, 100.2%)

Remaining games

Round 22: Sydney Swans at the SCG

Round 23: Brisbane Lions at the MCG

Round 24: Melbourne at the MCG

Remaining fixture difficulty: 4th-hardest

How many more wins do they need to play finals? Small chance they’re safe with two, should be safe with three

Well, that was fun, wasn’t it? (The end bit, not the Carlton threatening to out-Collingwood Collingwood bit.) Not only did the Magpies deal massive damage to the Blues’ finals hopes, they’ve kept themselves in the mix, with next week’s trip to the SCG suddenly looking a whole less scary. We still think the premiers will struggle to make the eight; even if they pull one upset over the next two weeks and then beat Melbourne, they’d be on 13 wins with a pedestrian percentage, and we suspect that won’t be enough. So they just have to keep winning while hoping other results go their way. But hey, at least they’ve dragged Carlton down with them!

Fox Footy’s projection: 12.2 wins, finishing 11th

12. MELBOURNE (10-10, 97.9%)

Remaining games

Round 22: Port Adelaide at the MCG

Round 23: Gold Coast Suns at People First Stadium

Round 24: Collingwood at the MCG

Remaining fixture difficulty: 7th-hardest

How many more wins do they need to play finals? Small chance they’re safe with three, otherwise miss

Realistically they’re done, with a ceiling of 13 wins and a pedestrian percentage. Their best case scenario is heading into Round 24 needing to beat Collingwood by a lot, while other results go their way, to sneak into the eight but even that seems fanciful. We’ll keep them out of the non-contenders category just for now, but if they lose to Port they’re done.

Fox Footy’s projection: 11.4 wins, finishing 12th

THE NON-CONTENDERS

13. GOLD COAST SUNS (9-11, 100.4%)

Remaining games

Round 22: Essendon at Marvel Stadium

Round 23: Melbourne at People First Stadium

Round 24: Richmond at the MCG

Remaining fixture difficulty: 2nd-easiest

How many more wins do they need to play finals? Don’t be silly

They’re three wins and percentage out of eighth with three weeks left. 13 wins might not even get you in, so 12 sure won’t – and there’s nothing more official than us relegating them to the non-contenders section. It’s yet another disappointing end to a promising season.

Fox Footy’s projection: 10.6 wins, finishing 13th

14. ST KILDA (8-12, 94.9%)

Remaining games

Round 22: Richmond at Marvel Stadium

Round 23: Geelong at Marvel Stadium

Round 24: Carlton at Marvel Stadium

Remaining fixture difficulty: 6th-easiest

Fox Footy’s projection: 9.35 wins, finishing 14th

15. ADELAIDE CROWS (7-12-1, 99.8%)

Remaining games

Round 22: Western Bulldogs at Adelaide Oval

Round 23: Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval

Round 24: Sydney Swans at the SCG

Remaining fixture difficulty: 2nd-hardest

Fox Footy’s projection: 8.55 wins, finishing 15th

16. WEST COAST EAGLES (4-16, 70%)

Remaining games

Round 22: North Melbourne at Blundstone Arena

Round 23: Carlton at Optus Stadium

Round 24: Geelong at GMHBA Stadium

Remaining fixture difficulty: 7th-easiest

Fox Footy’s projection: 4.75 wins, finishing 16th

17. NORTH MELBOURNE (3-17, 67%)

Remaining games

Round 22: West Coast Eagles at Blundstone Arena

Round 23: Western Bulldogs at Marvel Stadium

Round 24: Hawthorn at UTAS Stadium

Remaining fixture difficulty: 9th-easiest

Fox Footy’s projection: 4 wins, finishing 17th

18. RICHMOND (2-18, 64.7%)

Remaining games

Round 22: St Kilda at Marvel Stadium

Round 23: Hawthorn at the MCG

Round 24: Gold Coast Suns at the MCG

Remaining fixture difficulty: 9th-hardest

Fox Footy’s projection: 3.05 wins, finishing 18th