Americans love shiny new things.
People look at my grubby, chipped iPhone 12 with pity. When they raise their eyes to my face it’s like they suddenly recognize me from a “Have you seen this man?” criminal photofit. “How much self respect and money does it take to buy a case?” is the kind of comment that has been hurled at me from people over the last four years. It’s as if I’ve broken a sacred “Apple Cult” vow that I should always have a pristine iPhone. How dare I insult Apple this way? After all they have done for me? I’m still not upgrading, despite the arrival of the iPhone 16 next month.
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It doesn’t look like I’m the only one. Apple Chief Executive Tim Cook, speaking on an earnings call on Thursday evening, told reporters, “We are very excited about Apple Intelligence and what it brings, and it’s another compelling reason for an upgrade.” However, Apple’s iPhone sales, calculated a percentage of total sales, fell to the lowest rate in nearly four years. (Some $39.3 billion in iPhone sales for the quarter to June 29 totaled 45.8% of total sales of $85.78 billion, the company said.)
iPhone sales have been choppy in recent years and, while Apple executives remain optimistic about the next big supercycle upgrade, analysts are not in agreement that this year will be a game-changer. (When have analysts ever agreed?) I’m not an Apple AAPL shareholder, so here’s what I have to say about the share price: I don’t care. I can understand why shareholders want every American who needs the best and the brightest consumer product to upgrade. Bigger screen? It’s amazing. Better camera? Go get ‘em.
We live in an upgrade culture. Spending $73,000 for the latest Tesla TSLA? You must care about the environment and have money — given that model costs more than the average U.S. salary. (Or maybe you just like making the neighbors jealous.) A $45 Stanley water cup? Yes, it seems you can complain about inflation, keep your water cool and also want to pull focus with the latest ridiculously expensive trend. An iPhone 12 that I bought as a treat for myself after the pandemic, which has broken glass? One person actually asked me, “What are you — a serial killer?” I’m only half convinced that they were joking.
I’m tired of the never-ending iPhone cycle. Sure, the photos and battery power are significantly better than the OG iPhone, but I generally don’t notice them from model to model. I am one of that cohort who are holding onto their iPhones for three-plus years. I don’t even have an Apple Watch. And I’m not buying a $3,500 Apple VR headset. They’re heavy and expensive, and the real world is disturbing enough. Plus, $799+ for the latest iPhone model is a lot. I can take a fancy vacation for that.
Upgrading is tempting
There’s too much pressure to upgrade every consumer product from your Nike sneakers (“How long have you had those?”) to your television (I refer you to the annual brawls over TVs on Black Friday as evidence of that). The U.S. produces more than 292 million tons of municipal solid waste a year or nearly 5 pounds per person per day, according to the Environmental Protection Agency. And an estimated millions of smartphones fall out of use every year. Why add to all that waste?
Of course, there are reasons to upgrade. If you want to see what Apple has in store for AI and how it can make your life easier, go for it. Shareholders are hoping that AI will bring in a fresh wave of iPhone upgrades. Will Siri, Apple’s digital assistant, be capable of giving more nuanced and complex answers to questions? Will the microphone be more accurate? “We expect Apple to introduce its broadest, and most important, AI-enabled software overhaul at WWDC 2024,” Erik Woodring, an analyst with Morgan Stanley, wrote in a recent research note.
As we continue to brace for how AI and new services like ChatGPT will change and/or disrupt our lives for better or for worse, this prediction — if it comes to pass — could be good for shareholders at least. When the iPhone 15 was released last September, 39% of Apple iPhone owners said they would consider upgrading to an iPhone 15 in the next 12 months, according to a survey carried out by YouGov. They cited superior storage space, processing speeds, larger screen, titanium casing and 5x optical zoom available on the iPhone Pro Max.
To be fair, Apple is also making it easier for consumers to upgrade their iPhones every year. They have a range of monthly installment plans, which range from $39.50 to $74.91. By buying directly through Apple you don’t have to commit to a multiyear servicing contract with a mobile carrier like AT&T T , T-Mobile TMUS or Verizon VZ. But is it wise to pay for such an expensive device in installments? Has this, along with mortgages, become an acceptable form of lifetime debt? It does not make the iPhone cheaper. We are already awash in monthly subscription plans.
So what can we expect? “Apple is designing new A-series chips for the iPhone 16 lineup, built on the latest N3E 3-nanometer node. We could see some improvements to efficiency and performance,” according to MacRumors. “The iPhone 16 and iPhone 16 Pro could use different chips, with the higher-end chip limited to the Pro models. The Action Button that was limited to the iPhone 15 Pro models will expand to all four iPhone 16 models in 2024, and the iPhone 16 lineup is also said to have a new ‘Capture Button’ that’s used for taking photos and videos.”
Ergo, geeks will love it. I still love my iPhone and I’m locked into the ecosystem, so I will never switch to an Android. I’m flying the flag for the filthy beauty of used iPhones. I did, however, recently spend 99 cents a month to upgrade my iCloud storage. If this phone gives up the ghost, I want to make sure that all my contacts and photos are backed up. I have no doubt the latest iPhone and iOS 18 software and new AI features will for the most part please consumers and shareholders, but I will resist this upgrade cycle and see if I can hold out for the iPhone 17.
And my iPhone 12? I’ve grown accustomed to its sad, cracked face.
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