When Nick Calathes rose up for a 3-point attempt in the dying stages of Greece’s win over Australia on Friday night (AEST), it may have seemed relatively inconsequential in that moment.
The Boomers had already lost by that point, rallying home in the fourth quarter but made to pay for what Brian Goorjian described as a “diabolical” second quarter which saw them trailing 53-36 at halftime.
In reality, when Nick Kay raced up to contest that Calathes 3-pointer with two seconds left on the clock, Australia’s Paris Olympics campaign hung in the balance.
The shot missed and the Boomers were eventually locked into a quarter-final berth after Canada squeaked past Spain in the early hours of Saturday morning.
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And sure, you can make the argument that if Australia made even one of its free throws the Calathes 3-pointer wouldn’t have mattered in the end anyway.
Which is true, but the broader point is that in international basketball in particular, where games are only 40 minutes long, every play counts and in the group stage turnovers, of which the Boomers made plenty, can be particularly damaging.
It is the primary cause of concern for Australia entering Tuesday evening’s game against Serbia, which is scheduled for a 10.30pm tip-off in Paris.
But there are lots of other areas Goorjian and the Boomers will need to clean up if they are to progress through to play the winner of the Brazil vs Team USA game in the semi-finals.
Of course, it is not all doom and gloom, especially when you consider the competitive nature of Australia’s ‘Pool of Death’, where the Boomers’ 12-point win over Spain was the largest in the entire group.
So, what were some of the key lessons learned from the group stage and what questions still linger as the Boomers look to shoot for another Olympic medal.
DYSON’S STOCK IS ON THE RISE… NOW COMES ANOTHER BIG CHALLENGE
Let’s start with a positive – arguably the biggest of the tournament so far for the Boomers.
Jock Landale has obviously been as important to this team’s success as anyone else, and more on him later, but Daniels has been the real surprise.
Not because of his work on defence, we already knew that about him after establishing himself as one of the NBA’s most underrated perimeter defenders and he has been impactful and disciplined as always on that end of the floor for the Boomers too.
But the decisiveness and confidence Daniels is playing with on offence is proof that regardless of what happens at this year’s Olympics, the Boomers have a bright future with him sharing the backcourt alongside Josh Giddey.
The fact Daniels and Giddey are already taking on this much responsibility with the likes of Patty Mills, Joe Ingles and Matthew Dellavedova entering the final stage of their careers speaks volumes to just how talented the 21-year-old duo are.
Talented in different ways, of course. Giddey is taking on the more difficult role of being the floor general and dissecting the defences, which at times has led to turnovers and poor decisions.
His growth in that regard will come with time.
Daniels, meanwhile, has excelled in more of an off-ball role, whether it is cutting towards the rim as an option for Giddey or putting up 3-point attempts with absolutely no hesitation despite never really being much of a shooting threat in his two seasons with the New Orleans Pelicans.
This version of Daniels, always presenting himself as an option off the ball and wreaking havoc the way he does on the defensive end, will thrive in a backcourt with Trae Young at the Hawks.
But focusing specifically on the Boomers right now, Daniels will have the tough assignment of guarding soon-to-be teammate Bogdan Bogdanovic, who erupted for 30 points to go with six assists in Serbia’s win over South Sudan.
Bogdanovic didn’t play in the Boomers’ warm-up victory against Serbia, so this will be a new challenge for the Australians and one they will heavily lean on Daniels for.
WHAT HAS HAPPENED TO ‘OUT OF SORTS’ JOSH GREEN?
What is happening with Josh Green right now is an example of what Daniels could have been, if he hadn’t added the offensive piece to his game.
Of course, Daniels is a much better defender and so he was always going to have his place, but if he was a non-shooter or struggling to get into a rhythm on that end of the floor, he may not necessarily be seeing the same consistent minutes he is right now.
Look at Green. He is someone who the Boomers would have been going into the Olympics expecting to be a key contributor off the bench, at minimum.
In fact, for specific match-ups there was absolutely an argument he had the length and athleticism to slide into a starting role.
Just look at what he did in Game 5 of the NBA Finals last year as one of Dallas’ best rotation players on both ends of the floor and in spurts, Green has shown that level of upside when given the opportunity.
But something has been off with him from the jump at this year’s Olympics.
Green was impactful as you can be in a scoreless outing against Spain but struggled to find his footing in the loss to Canada and then saw just four minutes in Friday’s match-up with Greece.
“He (Green) didn’t really have an impact,” Andrew Bogut said on NBL Media’s The Gold Standard podcast.
“He just looks out of sorts. He doesn’t look good out there right now. He hit the side of the backboard, I think, on a 3-point attempt in the corner in front of our bench.
“He just doesn’t look himself. I think he’s trying to find consistency and rhythm but his minutes are going up and down.”
It may not happen in Paris but the issue for the Boomers is Green is the kind of player who absolutely has the upside in his game to be a genuine difference-maker for this team.
So to have him struggling to produce and now struggling to see any real minutes off the bench is a surprise, and not something most Boomers fans would have factored in before the Olympics.
Unfortunately, unless he makes an early 3-pointer against Serbia or has a quick layup to get his confidence up, it is hard to see him being given enough of a chance to rediscover his best basketball given the margins are even smaller now that it is win or go home.
Maybe you could point to the drain of playing a full NBA season considering Exum had a few injury layoffs, which may have kept him fresher. It is a tough one to explain but either way, Green is the kind of talent that is still worth persisting with on the international stage moving forward.
JOCK HAS BEEN A STANDOUT…AND MUST STAY OUT OF FOUL TROUBLE
This is a relatively simple one because along with limiting turnovers and making free throws, on an individual level, the deeper the Boomers go the more important it will be that Jock Landale stays on the court.
Landale has been a clear standout for Australia in all three group stage games along with Daniels, averaging 7.7 points, 9.7 rebounds and 3.3 assists per game.
His connection with Giddey was evident from the Boomers’ early warm-up games and has also translated into Olympic basketball, with the pair being particularly effective in the 12-point win over Spain.
For an Australian line-up that lacks consistent outside shooting and a go-to guy for buckets at times, that Giddey-Landale combination is invaluable.
But even focusing on Landale alone, he fights for offensive rebounds, has a soft touch at the rim and hustles on defence too.
That in itself makes him a key cog in the Boomers’ success and that is without mentioning the fact it doesn’t seem like Australia has enough from its back-up options in Will Magnay and Duop Reath.
That is why Landale, who picked up three early fouls against Greece, needs to make sure he stays disciplined against Serbia.
Speaking on The Gold Standard podcast, Bogut said Landale’s performances for the Boomers at this year’s Games have proven he can be effective at the NBA level after an up-and-down season with the Rockets.
“He moves well without the ball. He plays the right way. He doesn’t force things offensively… he makes the right basketball play,” Bogut said.
“… Most of us in the basketball community, I think, know his value and I think Houston figured out his value late in the season. He was in the doghouse most of that year, couldn’t get consistent minutes, they had an injury or two and all of a sudden he comes in and plays very, very well.
“He’s probably one of the bigger future points of the Boomers program. It’s turning into his team or his program. Down the line, I think he’s going to be the mainstay. He’s great culturally for the team.”
‘DANGEROUS’ TRAP BOOMERS CAN’T FALL INTO…AND HOW TO STOP THE OFFENCE STAGNATING
When the Boomers’ offence isn’t firing, it bleeds into the defence and that is supposed to be this team’s biggest strength.
So, with that in mind, it is only more important that Australia is locked in on that end of the floor and not making turnovers, because that has been a consistent problem throughout the group stage.
Not only are the turnovers wasted scoring opportunities, but if they are live turnovers they put the defence under immediate strain by not allowing the Boomers to get set in the halfcourt.
That was evident in the second quarter against Greece, where Australia had little hope of stopping the onslaught of paints until it cleaned up its own possessions.
Of course, it is probably too simple to say the Boomers just need to stop turning the ball over without actually looking at what may be causing that and for Bogut, the offence is at its best when it runs through Landale in the paint – at least early in the game.
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“There was a little bit of hero ball in that first half… I think we’re the best when the ball moves,” he said on The Gold Standard Podcast.
“We have so many good passers and I’ve been saying it from the start, I’d love to see the ball go inside more. When our offence bogs down like we saw in that second half where we couldn’t get a bucket, everything was above the 3-point line with pick-and-rolls and handoffs, I’d love to see us throw it to a Jock Landale at the elbow or the block.
“Even when Josh Giddey is struggling the way he is, you get him on the block and run some action off that, he’s one of the best passers in the tournament and you can cause a lot of problems. I’d love to see some paint touches that way rather than just constantly going off the dribble.”
The Boomers outscored Spain 42-30 in the paint in their opening game while also shooting 50 per cent from deep (12 from 24 attempts).
Against Canada, Australia opened up a halftime lead, again after a 30-16 points in the paint advantage before falling away after defensive adjustments from Jordi Fernandez.
On Friday night, Landale had a few early touches against Greece while Mills was also feeling it in the first quarter.
But Giannis Antetokounmpo was scoring at will and before long a “hero ball” mentality, as Goorjian put it, crept in, resulting in the Boomers scoring just 30 points in the paint the entire game.
“I think it’s a dangerous game coming out shooting 3s,” Bogut added.
“A lot of the European teams are really good at coming out and establishing the paint presence early, whether it is through the pick-and-roll or post-ups, and everything is going to come through that.
“I think at times we start off games, and last night Patty hit two big 3s… but it’s easy to adjust defensively to that. I think once we get into the paint… then teams have to adjust to that and then the 3 ball is going to come.”
The offence stagnating may also come down to what line-up Goorjian has out on the floor.
Mills, for example, has struggled as an on-ball creator while Dante Exum has thrived in that role off the bench, whereas having Giddey and Mills on the floor together too long isn’t sustainable defensively.
Nick Kay obviously has the trust of Goorjian and the coaching staff and was likely taken as the four man over Xavier Cooks as he is a better shooting option, but to this point he has been a non-factor in that capacity and so if that continues it may force the Boomers to entertain a smaller line-up that leans more heavily into the squad’s athleticism and versatility.
There is little room for Goorjian to tinker with things now that we have reached the quarter-finals, but he threw a few different looks out there against Greece to see what stuck and so it will be interesting to see what direction he goes in against Serbia on Tuesday.
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