ECR stands for “Expert Consensus Ranking,” which means the average rankings of the fantasy football industry and is typically similar to ADP (which differs from site-to-site). This ongoing positional series will highlight some big differences between ECR and my own ranks.
[Quarterbacks I like more/less | Running backs I like more | Running backs I like less]
ECR: WR21 vs. My Rank: WR9
Kupp’s performance unquestionably dropped last season when he was clearly playing through injury. However, a compromised Kupp still managed to match Puka Nacua’s targets when they were on the field together, including first-read target share. Kupp finished with the ninth-most red-zone receptions while playing just 12 games (on one leg). Nacua emerged as a true alpha as a rookie and will continue to demand targets, but Kupp enters 2024 finally healthy.
Kupp just turned 31 years old, but fantasy wide receivers traditionally don’t show much decline during their eighth year in the league. The Rams led the NFL in yards per play when their offense was fully healthy last season, and Sean McVay is a master at producing WR fantasy points. Kupp is just two seasons removed from posting a 191-145-1,947-16 campaign, yet he’s available in Round 4 of Yahoo drafts.
The Rams have Demarcus Robinson as their WR3, Colby Parkinson as their TE1 and an RB1 who struggles as a receiver, so the targets will be extremely condensed. Moreover, Nacua ran more routes last season than he did throughout his college career and is “week to week” after leaving August 4’s practice with a knee injury. Nacua is fully expected to be ready for the start of the season, but the injury was enough to flip them in my rankings (I had them back-to-back before the Nacua news).
Kupp’s ECR and ADP are sure to rise after Nacua’s injury and with so many positive reports from camp.
ECR: WR24 vs. My Rank: WR16
Nabers had a prolific college career, topping 3,000 receiving yards and 21 touchdowns over three seasons at LSU. He led all WRs in yards per route run during his final season while also leading in career yards per team attempt — two of the highest signal metrics — and he didn’t turn 21 years old until last week. His career highs in fantasy points per game, target share, PFF Receiving Grade and Y/TPA are better than Marvin Harrison Jr.’s despite being younger.
New York’s QB situation isn’t ideal, but Daniel Jones has produced a near-league-average success rate under Brian Daboll. Nabers otherwise landed in a terrific situation to put up a monster rookie season. The Giants have arguably the thinnest WR room in the league and lost both Saquon Barkley and Darren Waller during the offseason. Daboll called a top-five no-huddle rate and employed one of the league’s faster paces last season despite a disastrous offense, and the entire NFC East division is uptempo and should produce a ton of plays.
The Giants improved their offensive line during the offseason, and Daboll ran the Buffalo offense that averaged 165 targets to Stefon Diggs across 2020-2021. Daboll appears to love Nabers, who’s been a highlight machine throughout camp. The hype is real.
Nabers simply shouldn’t be going 50+ picks after Harrison Jr.
ECR: WR26 vs. My Rank: WR21
Pickens’ full season’s pace without Diontae Johnson on the field last season was 72 catches for 1,517 yards and nine touchdowns on 140 targets. He registered a 38.4% first-read target rate over those four games without Johnson, when Pickens’ targets per route run rate (24.1%) ranked top-20, and his yards per route run (2.93) ranked top-five. Pickens’ end-zone target share also jumped to 42% with Johnson off the field.
Pickens’ yards per target (10.27) ranks second among all wide receivers over the last three years. He ranked top 20 in ESPN’s Open Score last year. He now gets to play without Johnson for a full season and with a much better offensive coordinator.
Pickens can finally run routes over the middle of the field with Matt Canada gone.
Pickens will also benefit from an upgraded quarterback room, as Kenny Pickett owns the lowest TD% (1.8) among 391 quarterbacks with at least 500 attempts in NFL history. Pickens has shown especially good rapport with Justin Fields, who helped DJ Moore produce top-five fantasy WR numbers last season.
Pickens has flaws in his game, but there’s real potential entering Year 3. He’s plenty capable of scoring more touchdowns, even in a shaky offense with questions at quarterback. With Johnson in Carolina and an incredibly thin depth chart (Van Jefferson, injured rookie Roman Wilson) behind him, Pickens has more upside than most receivers in his tier.
However, his fantasy value would take a big hit if Pittsburgh trades for Brandon Aiyuk.
ECR: WR30 vs. My Rank: WR25
Stefon Diggs showed real signs of decline last season, and he’ll be entering a new offense in Year 10. Khalil Shakir had more receiving yards than Diggs over Buffalo’s final 10 games despite seeing fewer than half the number of targets.
Meanwhile, Dell is coming off a highly impressive rookie season. He had a slightly higher target share (22.6%) compared to Nico Collins (22.1), but a big advantage in air yards share (36.0% vs. 25.4%) during the seven games in which they both played at least 50% of the snaps. Dell is a legit route runner who averaged 10.8 targets, 6.3 catches and 92.3 receiving yards with five touchdowns over his final four games as a rookie.
C.J. Stroud is the real deal (and his rookie numbers would’ve looked even more impressive if not for suffering multiple concussions), and there’s no chance the Texans finish 19th in pass rate over expectation again as they did in 2023. Dell should be fully recovered from last season’s injury, which didn’t require TightRope surgery like Tony Pollard did.
Dell has a lower floor given his size, but he also possesses the highest weekly upside among all three Houston wide receivers.
ECR: WR35 vs. My Rank: WR29
When averaging YPPR, ESPN Receiver Rating and PFF Receiving Grade, Johnson ranked 14th among all WRs last season. He grades better than Justin Jefferson in ESPN’s Open Score over the last five seasons and earned a Full Green route tree from Matt Harmon’s indispensable Reception Perception in 2023. Only Davante Adams, Stefon Diggs, Justin Jefferson and Tyreek Hill earned more targets over 2020-2022 before Johnson dealt with injuries last year.
Johnson was also saddled by extremely poor quarterback play last season when he saw the lowest depth-controlled catchable target rate in the league. Kenny Pickett sports the lowest TD% (1.8) among 391 quarterbacks with at least 500 attempts in NFL history. Bryce Young undoubtedly struggled during his rocky rookie season, but he ranked fourth in accurate throw rate to “open” receivers (not including screens). Young’s completion percentage above expectation (-1.6) was also hardly a disaster, as it was on par with Jordan Love and better than Patrick Mahomes. Young had the lowest turnover-worthy throw rate in the NFL last season during plays with motion and/or shift.
Enter Dave Canales, a massive coaching upgrade who’s helped Russell Wilson, Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield all produce career-best seasons over the last few years, and he plans to build the Panthers’ offense around Johnson. Carolina’s wide receivers struggled mightily separating last season, when Johnson easily led the league in separation win rate.
The Panthers should be throwing frequently this year, so Johnson will be among the league leaders in targets in a Canales offense.
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