The “Running Back Dead Zone” is a term that fantasy football players know all too well. For those who aren’t familiar, the running back dead zone describes a section in the middle rounds of drafts featuring a group of running backs who, every year, seemingly never live up to their ADPs.
In this article, I’ll be taking a closer look at where the RB dead zone exactly lies this year to help you navigate your running back draft strategy.
Qualities of a dead-zone running back
Let’s first define some common patterns and trends among dead-zone running backs to get a better sense of what to look out for this year.
Quality #1: Bad offense
The single most telling sign that a middle-round running back could be a bust is if they are on a bad offense. Volume gives you a floor in fantasy football, but it’s touchdowns that raise your ceiling, and dead-zone running backs often will see high carry numbers but low efficiency and end-zone production.
These players are in what I like to call “running back purgatory” — you will feel compelled to start your bad-offense running backs every week under the guise of high volume, but at the end of the day, a 26 carry, 78-yard performance is worth just 7.8 fantasy points.
Some examples of dead-zone running backs who fit this bill last year include Alexander Mattison (drafted as the RB21) and Javonte Williams (RB25), who finished as the RB38 and RB30, respectively.
Quality #2: Depth chart competition
Historically, a surprisingly high amount of dead-zone running backs were unproductive because they simply got replaced as the starter. This goes for guys like Dameon Pierce (RB15, replaced by Devin Singletary), Miles Sanders (RB20, replaced by Chuba Hubbard) and Cam Akers (RB22, replaced by Kyren Williams) last year. It’s obviously difficult to predict beforehand whether a player will get supplanted midseason, but we should at least consider the potential competitors in the backfield when deciding on whether to draft dead-zone running backs.
Quality #3: Not pass-catchers
I mentioned above that volume gives you a floor, but not all volume is created equally. Running backs who are pass-catchers inherently receive a boost in their consistency because of PPR scoring. So, another indication that a running back could fall into the dead zone is if they are a two-down back who will get subbed out in pass-catching situations. This is especially the case if they also happen to be in a bad offense, as that means they will essentially get no high-value touches.
Identifying the RB dead zone in 2024
We as a fantasy football community are getting smarter and smarter each year. As a result, it feels like the dead zone has shifted down a little bit. Almost none of the running backs going in the first five or so rounds of fantasy drafts feel like dead-zone players. Most of them are on offenses that project to be productive, and the ones who aren’t (Alvin Kamara and Rachaad White) have little competition and are big-time pass catchers.
With that being said, I think the dead zone this year lies between the seventh and 10th rounds of drafts, starting at roughly where Rhamondre Stevenson is going (RB22) and ending around Javonte Williams (RB33). Essentially all of the running backs in this range can be categorized into one or more of the above categories, and I am actively avoiding them in drafts.
Stevenson, Zamir White, Brian Robinson and Devin Singletary all feel like they are stuck in low-ceiling offenses. Stevenson and Robinson could also lose significant passing volume to Antonio Gibson and Austin Ekeler, respectively, making them inconsistent options this year.
Benson is a bit of an outlier as he is a rookie, but I doubt that he sees serious volume until later on in the season considering how effective incumbent starter James Conner was last year. That makes the ninth round a bit rich of a draft price for a bench stash like Benson.
I could easily see Zack Moss and Javonte Williams losing their starting roles this season. Moss is currently battling to solidify the starting spot against second-year back Chase Brown, and the two could ultimately end up in a timeshare which would hurt their fantasy value individually. Williams, on the other hand, had a noticeable lack of burst and explosion last year following his 2022 ACL injury and could be replaced by rookie Audric Estimé and/or the versatile Jaleel McLaughlin if Williams continues to struggle.
I’m not too optimistic about either Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears, as I feel like they will eat into each other’s volume, making it difficult for either of them to stay fantasy-relevant in a mediocre Titans offense. The team listed both Pollard and Spears as co-RB1s on their first depth chart of the season.
I’m also not a fan of Najee Harris, but more on that in the next section.
Diamonds in the rough
The two players I didn’t mention, Jaylen Warren and D’Andre Swift, are guys whom I can envision staying alive in the dead zone. While Warren will likely enter the season in a committee with the aforementioned Harris, I am optimistic that talent will win out and he will earn a bigger role. Warren was one of the most efficient runners in the entire NFL last season — he ranked third in yards after contact per attempt, fifth in breakaway run percentage and first in missed tackles forced per carry.
Last year, Warren was also effective as a pass-catcher, hauling in 61 catches on 74 targets which ranked fifth among running backs. Long story short, I think that Warren will provide enough of a floor as a pass-catcher to return value at his ADP of RB26, and his big-play ability gives him the upside that most dead-zone running backs lack.
I’m a fan of Swift in this range because he belongs to far and away the best offense of the group. Maybe I’m buying into the Caleb Williams hype too much, but I genuinely believe that the Bears will be a top-15 offensive unit at a minimum this season. Swift is coming off a career year where he ran for over 1,000 yards, and he should have had a much better fantasy finish if Jalen Hurts didn’t steal so many of Swift’s touchdowns via the tush push.
Now in Chicago, Swift should have plenty more goal-line opportunities. Although Swift may see some competition from Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson, I’m a big believer in following the money and the Bears didn’t pay Swift the most guaranteed money of all running backs this offseason to sit him. Swift also offers value as a pass-catcher (he had 62 receptions back in 2021), and his ADP of RB25 is closer to his floor than his ceiling. I would love to take Swift as my RB2 at 74th overall after getting an elite running back and several great receivers in the earlier rounds.
Final Thoughts
The running back dead zone remains a problem for fantasy managers in 2024. There are several players in the middle rounds to avoid drafting this year because of their lack of clear upside and opportunity. Besides D’Andre Swift and Jaylen Warren, I would stay away from the running backs going in the seventh to 10th round so that I can avoid the headache of dealing with an unproductive running back whom I delude myself into starting each week.
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