NFL preseason is just about to hit full swing with a full slate of games starting this weekend. Outside of a couple looming moves, these teams are who they are for the upcoming season. That said, there is one team that’s a huge unknown at this point, which is an excellent place to start this Four Verts column.
The Jets are the NFL’s biggest wild card
Let’s try this again. Everyone knows what happened to the Jets last year. Aaron Rodgers was acquired, there was a summer of hope, and then it was over in four plays. The Jets’ ceiling was immediately capped due to quarterback play and they finished with a 7-10 record thanks to one of the best defenses in football. Now, they try again. On face value, the roster appears to be among the NFL’s best, but it’s hard to proclaim just how this season will go for the Jets. As good as the team looks, there are still a few unknowns that will influence a season that essentially must end in a playoff appearance — starting with Rodgers.
It’s impossible to project what Rodgers might be this season. He’s 40 years old coming off an Achilles tear and the most recent full season he played in 2022 showed a decline from his back-to-back MVP seasons in 2020 and 2021. According to rbsdm.com, Rodgers ranked first in expected points added per dropback (0.310) over the combined 2020 and 2021 seasons. In 2022, that figure fell all the way to 21st (0.039) where he was sandwiched in between Andy Dalton and Justin Fields for that particular measurement. Then he tore his Achilles four plays into the following season.
It’s almost been three years since Aaron Rodgers played like an elite quarterback and it’s almost been two years since Rodgers really played at all. He’s 40. Given his expertise and overall skill level for the position, no one should really be surprised if he manages to put together a strong season for the Jets. However, if he struggles given everything he’s endured over the past couple years, that wouldn’t necessarily be surprising either. He’s a real deal wild card that throws a huge wrench in trying to predict what’s possible for this team. A true wait and see.
The pieces around Rodgers are talented, but leave questions as well. Garrett Wilson is a bonafide star at wide receiver, but they’ll still need Mike Williams to return to form coming off of an ACL tear, Allen Lazard to give them something after a terrible 2023 season, and one of their young receivers to step up and contribute. The same can be said for left tackle Tyron Smith, who is still an effective player when healthy, but has only played in 30 games since the start of the 2020 season. To be fair, he did play in 13 games last year and was selected second team All-Pro, so this may not be a real concern. Breece Hall, though. Monster. And Braelon Allen has a chance to be a fantastic RB2.
The defense will be good again barring catastrophe. They might not be quite as strong as they were up front a season ago after losing Bryce Huff and John Franklin-Myers, but Quinnen Williams and Haason Reddick (whenever he ends his holdout) are a great duo. The Jets also have arguably the best cornerback trio in the league and their linebacker room is strong as well.
All this comes down to the quality of play at quarterback and the pieces around him staying healthy enough to contribute. Anything could happen for this year’s Jets. This is probably a cop out, but anywhere from seven wins to a Super Bowl appearance sounds about right for this team.
Don’t read too much into depth charts right now
As the season inches closer by the day, teams will be figuring out their depth charts and which players they actually want to play during the season. That process essentially starts at the beginning of training camp or in the middle of the summer and fluctuates throughout the preseason. Over the next couple weeks as unofficial depth charts are released, teams will have decisions that seem bewildering at a first glance.
For example, Bo Nix has been praised by Broncos head coach Sean Payton at every possible turn this summer. He’s also currently the third quarterback on the Broncos depth chart. Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts was listed as a backup on the Falcons unofficial depth chart prior to a 1,000-yard rookie season. These things don’t really mean anything, it’s more just a respect to order and the players who have been on the team — because this normally affects rookies.
Every once in a while you’ll get a team like the Bears that come out in May and say, “Caleb Williams is our starter.” But even No. 1 overall picks don’t always get that run way coming into the league. Trevor Lawrence, Justin Herbert, Jared Goff and Baker Mayfield are recent-ish examples of highly drafted players who had to play “unofficial depth chart musical chairs” and even then, those guys still started the vast majority of their rookie year, or the entire season in Lawrence’s case.
This is just what NFL teams do. For the most part, rookies are going to have to come in and earn their keep — which is fine! It’s a team atmosphere and the fastest way to make a rookie an accepted member of the team is to make them work for it. Nix will likely start the vast majority of the Broncos’ games this year. These unofficial depth charts in early August mean nothing because it’s just the standard mode of operation.
Sure, it might be funny if you’re a Raiders or a Chiefs fan to poke fun at the Broncos for Nix being QB3 on the depth chart, but everyone knows that he will be entrenched as the starter sooner rather than later. Draft pedigree (and contract value) still get players on the field, maybe just not in the first week of August. Don’t overreact to the depth charts you see over the next few weeks, they don’t mean much until they do.
NFL players once again have underrated Patrick Mahomes
NFL players, why do you do this? The NFL Top 100 list was recently released and once again, Patrick Mahomes has been grieviously underrated by his peers. Mahomes was ranked as the fourth best player in the NFL, behind Christian McCaffrey, Lamar Jackson and Tyreek Hill. No. Just no. It’s wrong.
Look, I’ve seen NFL players fill this thing out. Most of them put their buddies and teammates on the list with a couple consensus elite players at the top. It’s not an exercise they’re spending a great deal of time on. Still, someone must carry the burden of making sure the NFL’s Top 100 list is an honorable product, and that is not possible with Patrick Mahomes being the fourth-best player on this list.
Some people will say, “Why do you care? He’s still No. 4.” Those people don’t have principles. Mahomes is the clear-cut best player in the NFL and he should be No. 1 on this list every single year until the list and TV programming for it cease to exist. Lamar Jackson being in this class of ranking makes sense considering he just won his second MVP award and is firmly an elite quarterback in the league. He can remain at No. 2 as long as Mahomes gets to be first.
Tyreek Hill being ranked over Mahomes is especially funny considering the Chiefs have won the Super Bowl twice since trading Hill prior to the start of the 2022 season. Hill has to be the scariest player for any defense to guard, so it makes sense that he’s ranked in this juncture, but Mahomes’ success has continued without Hill and doesn’t appear to be stopping any time soon.
If Mahomes was ranked second, he would still be the most underrated player in the sport. Fourth is just not correct. Mahomes is reading, he’s watching — and he’s found his motivation for the year. NFL players, just remember, what happens next is all your fault.
We got our first commercials for Olympic flag football this weekend, which will be debuting in Los Angeles in 2028. Much to the chagrin of NFL team owners, there’s a chance that a bunch of high-profile players will try to compete and win the first flag football gold medal for the United States. It’s still four years away at this point, but it’s hard not to imagine what an Olympic flag football team might look like for the USA.
This is even worse than a way-too-early mock draft posted a day after the draft. Here’s your way-way-way-way-too-early predictions at who could be in play for USA Olympic flag football in 2028.
QB: Patrick Mahomes (age 32 in 2028): You’re kidding yourself if you think it would be anyone else. Mahomes might win 10 Super Bowls over the next four years.
WR/DB: Ja’Marr Chase (age 27): Ja’Marr Chase will be enduring four years of franchise tags with the Bengals at this point, but he’ll get to feel good for a few weeks by beating the breaks off of some poor kid from another country.
WR/DB: Devon Witherspoon (age 27): The United States absolutely has to have a chippy, mean cornerback on their roster. Witherspoon will be on his second contract with the Seahawks by then and Geno Smith will still be the most undervalued player in the league.
WR/DB: George Pickens (age 26): Just in case there’s a fight.
ATH: Bijan Robinson (age 25): He might not know what to do with himself when he sees how much space he has on the field. Give him time, he might be emotional. He hasn’t seen this in awhile.
Rush Specialist/Center: Jordan Davis (age 27): Is Jordan Davis the best defensive tackle out there? No, but he’s 6-foot-6, 350 pounds and ran a 4.78 40-yard dash. Fear us.
Head coach: LeBron James (age 44): When the U.S. wins gold, he’ll say he saw this moment coming back when he was just a kid in Akron.
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