Auto industry faces ‘panic,’ wild uncertainty as US EV adoption lags expectations – MASHAHER

ISLAM GAMAL9 August 2024Last Update :
Auto industry faces ‘panic,’ wild uncertainty as US EV adoption lags expectations – MASHAHER


Herb and Pegg Clevenger, of Jackson, are a self-proclaimed “earth mom and dad” who decided more than a year ago that their next new car would be a fully electric vehicle.

They did the research on EVs. They acknowledge the argument that EVs are not completely planet-friendly, considering the mining, production and afterlife of the lithium-ion batteries that power the vehicles. Nevertheless, the Clevengers believe EVs are a step in the right direction to help the planet move away from burning fossil fuels.

“I’m just like the perfect candidate for an EV,” Herb Clevenger told the Free Press. “For many people, EVs are not an option. But we already have another internal combustion engine vehicle, we have a Honda van, so if we take a long trip, we’re probably going to take that for towing. So I had no worries about range. I also knew that I’d put in a home charger, because I have a solar field that’s going to pay for it. Why should I buy gas? I am making my own juice right now.”

Herb Clevenger, of Jackson, stands with his 2024 Ford Mustang Mach-E electric SUV, which he bought new for about $50,000 in April to segue into EVs. But Clevenger admits EV adoption isn't for everyone yet.

Herb Clevenger, of Jackson, stands with his 2024 Ford Mustang Mach-E electric SUV, which he bought new for about $50,000 in April to segue into EVs. But Clevenger admits EV adoption isn’t for everyone yet.

So in April, the Clevengers paid $50,000 for a 2024 Ford Mustang Mach-E and haven’t looked back.

“If you spend a day in one, you’re knocked out with the acceleration,” Herb Clevenger said. “You get back in your (gas-powered) vehicle and you wonder if the transmission is going out. You feel the shift zones. You weren’t aware of them, but you are now and it feels so primitive. The brake and the acceleration doesn’t seem to line up as nicely as they do on the EV. If I need it, on the EV, I can just punch it and I’m gone.”

The Clevengers and about 3.3 million other U.S. car owners are sold on EVs. But that’s just over 1% of registered vehicles, and many car buyers remain reluctant to take the plunge. U.S. EV adoption is growing at a pace more sluggish than most carmakers and experts had predicted. Cox Automotive said in June its full-year forecast puts EV purchases this year at about 1.3 million vehicles, or 8.3% of total new car sales, a slight boost from last year, when EV market share was 7.6%.

But Cox had expected EV sales to be closer to 9.5% of total sales for the year. Part of the reason for the reduced forecast was an unexpectedly large sales decline from U.S. EV leader Tesla and the slow launch of affordable EVs by General Motors.

The stakes are huge. Analysts and auto executives are confident that fully electric vehicles will take over new car sales at some point in the next 10-15 years as governments seek to fight climate change by reducing fossil fuel emissions. Chinese and European car buyers are moving toward EVs much more quickly than Americans, with those markets accounting for 85% of last year’s sales. In Norway, for example, a quarter of the cars on the road are EVs and nearly 80% of new-vehicle sales last year were EVs. A quarter of last year’s sales in China were EVs.

Over a dozen electric vehicles from various manufacturers are parked on a section of E 9 Mile Rd., near Woodward Avenue, during the 2024 Clean Cruise, an electric car show hosted by the Michigan Electric Vehicle Alliance (MEVA) in Ferndale, Saturday, Aug. 3, 2024.Over a dozen electric vehicles from various manufacturers are parked on a section of E 9 Mile Rd., near Woodward Avenue, during the 2024 Clean Cruise, an electric car show hosted by the Michigan Electric Vehicle Alliance (MEVA) in Ferndale, Saturday, Aug. 3, 2024.

Over a dozen electric vehicles from various manufacturers are parked on a section of E 9 Mile Rd., near Woodward Avenue, during the 2024 Clean Cruise, an electric car show hosted by the Michigan Electric Vehicle Alliance (MEVA) in Ferndale, Saturday, Aug. 3, 2024.

Insiders see emerging Chinese EV makers’ affordable cars, currently blocked from the U.S. market by tariffs, as a powerful threat to American automakers — a danger with significant economic implications, with the auto industry accounting for 3-3.5% of U.S. gross domestic product.

“There’s a lot of panic, and some of the panic is justified,” said Sam Abuelsamid, principal analyst for transportation and mobility at Guidehouse Insights in Detroit, “Everybody is talking about ‘the EV sales are collapsing,’ which is not true. They haven’t declined universally.”

Clearly, the data provides mixed signals. So automakers, with their long vehicle lead times, must navigate through the uncertainty. In this story, we look at what the Detroit automakers are doing to address the key hurdles to U.S. EV adoption, which include pricing, vehicle range, charging infrastructure — and politics. Other U.S. EV makers — Tesla, Rivian and Lucid — did not respond to interview requests.

A ‘terrifying’ truth ahead

Uncertainty, the enemy of business planning, is the only certainty with EVs. No one is sure when they will become the leading propulsion system on U.S. roads, and politics complicates the projection even further.

President Joe Biden has advocated for EVs and earmarked $7.5 billion to fund building 500,000 new charging ports across the country. Democratic nominee Kamala Harris, who is from California, the nation’s leading EV state, likely would carry on Biden’s policies.

The Republican nominee, former President Donald Trump, has a history of contempt for EVs and has promised to blunt Biden’s efforts at EV adoption. But because Tesla CEO Elon Musk has endorsed him, Trump this summer has said he has to support EVs as a “small slice” of the market. “I am against everybody having an electric car,” he said in a separate appearance before the National Association of Black Journalists.

Political posturing aside, time is of the essence for U.S. carmakers to establish an EV foothold. At some point the Chinese EV manufacturers, with their affordable and technologically advanced EVs, will make a push to enter the U.S. market. Tariffs prevent that now, but when China can enter the states and sell EVs, experts said it could be the 1970s all over again if U.S. automakers aren’t prepared. In the 1970s, Japanese automakers Toyota and Honda captured a large part of the U.S. market with their small, fuel-efficient, affordable cars that U.S. companies did not offer.

FILE PHOTO: EV cars are pictured inside BYD's first electric vehicle (EV) factory in Southeast Asia, a fast-growing regional EV market where it has become the dominant player, in Rayong, Thailand, July 4, 2024. REUTERS/Chalinee Thirasupa/File PhotoFILE PHOTO: EV cars are pictured inside BYD's first electric vehicle (EV) factory in Southeast Asia, a fast-growing regional EV market where it has become the dominant player, in Rayong, Thailand, July 4, 2024. REUTERS/Chalinee Thirasupa/File Photo

FILE PHOTO: EV cars are pictured inside BYD’s first electric vehicle (EV) factory in Southeast Asia, a fast-growing regional EV market where it has become the dominant player, in Rayong, Thailand, July 4, 2024. REUTERS/Chalinee Thirasupa/File Photo

“It’s not just real, it’s terrifying if you thought about (Chinese EVs) in a total open, free market perspective,” said Mark Wakefield, co-leader of Global Automotive and Industrial Practice AlixPartners in Troy. “Elon Musk is worried about it. He said if it was an open market, the Chinese would decimate the Western automakers.”

Tesla CEO Musk said in January that without trade barriers, Chinese automakers will “demolish” global rivals, according to a Reuters report. His comments come after the Warren Buffett-backed Chinese EV maker BYD, which offers a varied and affordable EV lineup, overtook Tesla as the world’s top-selling EV company in the fourth quarter of 2023 despite the U.S. automaker’s deep price cuts throughout last year.

Uneven charging infrastructure must be addressed

The slow mass adoption of EVs can be blamed on two pain points: price and usage. Most EVs carry a premium price tag compared with gasoline-powered vehicles.

As for usage, many drivers still worry about range for long-distance trips, studies show. In addition, drivers still must deal with an uneven charging infrastructure. According to the U.S. Department of Energy Alternative Fuels Data Center, the nation as of March had 168,388 public EV charging ports. Not every EV can use every charger, and apps and maps to locate chargers are incomplete and not fully reliable.

EV demand in urban areas has outpaced charger supply. In rural areas and along highways, efforts to expand charger infrastructure remain in early stages. To compound matters, at some locations, the chargers do not work — a problem that’s worse in severe cold.

General Motors CEO Mary Barra smiles as she speaks inside the Detroit Economic Club in Detroit on Thursday, May 23, 2024.General Motors CEO Mary Barra smiles as she speaks inside the Detroit Economic Club in Detroit on Thursday, May 23, 2024.

General Motors CEO Mary Barra smiles as she speaks inside the Detroit Economic Club in Detroit on Thursday, May 23, 2024.

GM CEO Mary Barra said fixing the charging infrastructure is top of mind for the automaker as it targets 2035 to offer only electric vehicles.

“It’s making sure people understand (chargers) and making sure they’re available, and when they’re available, that when you head to them, they actually work and that it’s an easy, easy experience,” Barra said in May when she spoke to the Detroit Economic Club. “As we continue to make improvements, you’ll see EV adoption continue to grow.”

But the lack of reliable chargers and cost of ownership led 46% of about 800 American EV and plug-in hybrid owners to say they plan to go back to gasoline-powered vehicles for their next purchase in a survey for the Kinsey Mobility Consumer Pulse Study.

Still, other research shows the auto industry’s transition to EVs is poised to accelerate. S&P Global Mobility writes that 2026 will be a tipping point for a growth spurt in EV adoption, and by 2030, more than 1 in 4 new passenger cars sold will be an EV. J.D. Power experts told the Free Press that consumer interest in EVs has increased 5 percentage points in the second quarter, with 28% of new-vehicle shoppers “very likely” to consider an EV for their next purchase or lease. That rise correlates with gas prices inching higher and automakers offering incentives on EVs, J.D. Power said, adding that new EVs arriving in key segments such as midsize SUVs is also sparking consumer interest.

EV sales at the Detroit Three

On July 2, Tesla reported its second-quarter deliveries fell by 4.8% to 443,956 vehicles globally, according to Reuters, which was a smaller drop than expected, but pushed it back ahead of BYD, which a 21% jump in EV sales in the quarter to 426,039. It was the first time Tesla posted two straight quarters of decline.

To put Tesla and BYD sales in perspective, GM reported a 40% gain in EV sales in the U.S. in the second quarter with 21,930 EVs sold, just 5% of Tesla’s global sales. For the entire first half of this year GM’s total EV sales in the U.S. totaled 38,355, up 6% from the year-ago period.

Ford Motor Co. trails only Tesla in U.S. EV sales, with 44,180 EVs sold the first half of the year, and Ford EV sales spiked 61% in the second quarter.

Mustang Mach-E’s for sale at Szott Ford dealership in Holly on Thursday, Aug. 8, 2024.Mustang Mach-E’s for sale at Szott Ford dealership in Holly on Thursday, Aug. 8, 2024.

Mustang Mach-E’s for sale at Szott Ford dealership in Holly on Thursday, Aug. 8, 2024.

Stellantis does not yet offer fully electric vehicles in the U.S. The all-electric Fiat 500e is starting to reach U.S. dealers now, and the company plans to offer the 2024 Jeep Wagoneer S as well as the 2024 Dodge Charger Daytona R/T and the 2025 Ram 1500 REV.

As EV sales slipped below projections, automakers began touting their hybrid offerings — vehicles that combine at least one electric motor with a gasoline engine to move the car while its system recaptures energy via regenerative braking.

Ford’s hybrid sales increased 56% to 53,822 vehicles in the second quarter, a quarterly sales record since Ford first offered hybrid models more than 20 years ago. Stellantis sold 32,312 hybrids in the second quarter, with the Jeep Wrangler 4xe hybrid leading the way with more than 15,000 sold, accounting for 39% of total Wrangler sales the second quarter.

GM, which discontinued its pioneering Chevrolet Volt plug-in hybrid in 2019, has promised to add new plug-in hybrids by 2027.

‘Choppy years’ until 2026

In 2023, 1.14 million new EVs were registered in the United States, up from 757,000 in 2022, a growth rate of 51%. In the first quarter of this year, 367,000 new EVs have been registered, Stephanie Brinley, associate director of auto intelligence at S&P Global Mobility, told the Free Press.

Stan Seling, left, shows his 2023 Rivian R1S to Michael Fried during the 2024 Clean Cruise, an electric car show hosted by the Michigan Electric Vehicle Alliance (MEVA) in Ferndale on Saturday, Aug. 3, 2024.Stan Seling, left, shows his 2023 Rivian R1S to Michael Fried during the 2024 Clean Cruise, an electric car show hosted by the Michigan Electric Vehicle Alliance (MEVA) in Ferndale on Saturday, Aug. 3, 2024.

Stan Seling, left, shows his 2023 Rivian R1S to Michael Fried during the 2024 Clean Cruise, an electric car show hosted by the Michigan Electric Vehicle Alliance (MEVA) in Ferndale on Saturday, Aug. 3, 2024.

The early EV adopters have their EVs, Brinley said, so automakers must work to capture the buyer who is willing to make the change. But you can’t rush consumers, Brinley said.

“You’ve got to convince people now,” Brinley said. “EVs are a big change, and people don’t generally love change for change’s sake. So you have to put it in a package that works for their lives and their budgets. We are in a phase when that’s starting to happen.”

Woody Gontina, a Royal Oak homebuilder, is one of those consumers. He used his gasoline-powered Ram pickup for work every day. But, as the chair of the Royal Oak Environmental Advisory Board, Gontina longed to drive an EV. He just needed an all-electric pickup that was both affordable and a work truck.

Woody Gontina, 49, Royal Oak, (left) goes over the interior of his new Ford F-150 Lightning that he purchased from New Car Salesman Liam Belill, 28, of Flushing at Szott Ford dealership in Holly on Thursday, Aug. 8, 2024.Woody Gontina, 49, Royal Oak, (left) goes over the interior of his new Ford F-150 Lightning that he purchased from New Car Salesman Liam Belill, 28, of Flushing at Szott Ford dealership in Holly on Thursday, Aug. 8, 2024.

Woody Gontina, 49, Royal Oak, (left) goes over the interior of his new Ford F-150 Lightning that he purchased from New Car Salesman Liam Belill, 28, of Flushing at Szott Ford dealership in Holly on Thursday, Aug. 8, 2024.

“There was Rivian, but that was not built to function as a work truck, and they’re quite pricey,” Gontina said. According to Kelley Blue Book a 2024 Rivian R1T pickup starts at $71,700.

But on Aug. 8, Gontina took delivery of a new metallic blue 2023 Ford Lightning pickup from Szott Ford in Holly.

“I was able to find a new vehicle, though it’s a couple model years behind, but I was able to get advantageous pricing,” Gontina said.

With nothing down, he is leasing it for three years at “under $400” a month, cheaper than the Ram he leased for three years at $435 a month after a $2,000 to $3,000 deposit.

“There’s certainly going to be gas savings and savings from routine maintenance; I won’t have to do standard oil changes,” Gontina said. “One other area of potential savings is the brake pads because of regenerative braking. The electric motor does some of the braking for you, so there’s less wear on the brake pads.”

He is going to buy a Level 2 charger for his garage. He has the experience to install it himself. He said DTE is offering a $500 rebate for a charger, which costs $550. He estimated installation of the chargers by a professional would cost $1,000 to $2,000, including the cost of charger.

New Car Salesman Liam Belill, 28, of Flushing, plugs in the 2023 Ford F-150 Lightning into the Autel Ford Blue Oval charge network that Woody Gontina, 49, Royal Oak, purchased at Szott Ford dealership in Holly on Thursday, Aug. 8, 2024. The EV truck was having a connection error at the charge stations.New Car Salesman Liam Belill, 28, of Flushing, plugs in the 2023 Ford F-150 Lightning into the Autel Ford Blue Oval charge network that Woody Gontina, 49, Royal Oak, purchased at Szott Ford dealership in Holly on Thursday, Aug. 8, 2024. The EV truck was having a connection error at the charge stations.

New Car Salesman Liam Belill, 28, of Flushing, plugs in the 2023 Ford F-150 Lightning into the Autel Ford Blue Oval charge network that Woody Gontina, 49, Royal Oak, purchased at Szott Ford dealership in Holly on Thursday, Aug. 8, 2024. The EV truck was having a connection error at the charge stations.

“For folks considering an EV, that transition has been difficult to do, due to cost,” Gontina said. “These are tips and tricks to consider.”

Brinley said a lot of new EVs will come to market between now and 2026, giving consumers more choices at different price points and, ultimately, lowering entry barriers.

“I think (the automakers) are doing what they should be doing, and you can’t push consumers faster than they want to go,” Brinley said. “You keep developing new technology and bringing great products. Keep working on the costs … you have to get EVs profitable. Adoption is a slow curve. This year through 2026 are choppy years.”

Price and selection are factors

Let’s return to the McKinsey study where nearly half of the 800 EV and plug-in hybrid owners said they intend to switch back to gasoline-powered cars for their next purchase. Kevin Laczkowski, senior partner at global consultancy McKinsey & Co., which conducted the Mobility Consumer Pulse Study, said most of those people fell in the 25-45 age group and indicated they have children in their household.

“Those folks will need bigger vehicles over time,” Laczkowski said. “So having the choice of larger vehicles that are affordable is a factor for them. The larger vehicles that are affordable right now are” gasoline-powered.

As of May, the average transaction price for an EV was $56,648 compared with the average transaction price of a gasoline-powered car of $47,863, according to Cox Automotive data. The 2024 Cox Automotive Path to EV Adoption study indicated that for consumers considering an EV in the next 24 months, the main barrier is cost, followed by a lack of charging stations.

Elizabeth Krear, vice president of J.D. Power’s Electric Vehicle Practice, also noted a lack of options in a key vehicle segment: midsize SUVs.

“Last year, there were zero midsize SUV electric vehicles available,” Krear said. “This year we have the announcements of the Equinox, there’s the Blazer — I’m talking mass market here — there’s the Honda Prologue there’s the Jeep announcement that’s coming … this is the year when, midsize SUVs, 17% of the overall market, is finally going to have a player.”

As a result, she said the J.D. Power EV Index Retail Share Forecast indicates roughly one in five new vehicle retail sales in 2026 will be an EV, compared with one in 10 last year.

Still, at least for a while, Krear said electric midsize SUVs will likely carry a premium price tag over gasoline-powered options even with the federal tax credit, because not everyone is eligible for the tax credit. The tax credit was included in the Inflation Reduction Act, whose rules specify that for a buyer to get some or all of a $7,500 federal tax credit, the EV had to be assembled in North America and the battery and a percentage of other components could not be sourced by “a foreign entity of concern” — which many interpret to be China. Vehicles assembled in Mexico, such as Ford’s Mach-E, are not eligible.

Technology costs money, but we want it

Lowering EV prices is so important that 1,500 members of the Electric Vehicle Association signed a petition calling on GM to ensure the Chevrolet Equinox EV would be affordable, noting that the Equinox EV that was promised to start at $35,000 is not yet for sale and has no set date for delivery beyond “later this year,” said Elaine Borseth, president of association, which has 2,000 members.

The initial 2024 model year Equinox EVs that GM launched, which are being delivered now, are heavily loaded with content and start at $48,995 for a front-wheel drive version and $52,395 for an all-wheel drive variant. Chevrolet leaders have said Chevrolet will start offering more variants of the Equinox EV, which are made at GM’s plant in Ramos Arizpe, Mexico, and it will launch the base model, which will start at $34,995.

Borseth told the Free Press she sees affordability as the prime hurdle to mass EV adoption.

“We see other (automakers) say there’s no demand,” Borseth said. “Then they lower the price and the demand skyrockets, so the demand is there.”

But S&P Global Mobility’s Brinley said EV affordability doesn’t always correlate to sales.

Stephanie BrinleyStephanie Brinley

Stephanie Brinley

“You look at the F-150 Lighnting, it is expensive … but its (price) is within the mix of all the F-150 models,” Brinley said. “A Mustang Mach-E is priced within the scope of midsize SUVs and people are buying more expensive SUVs than that one. The Nissan Leaf … is cheap and available and it hasn’t set sales on fire.”

The Equinox EV will be an important vehicle for GM, she said, because it is larger than the former Bolt with more content and more range. Put simply, she said, technology costs money.

“The Equinox EV is more expensive than the (internal combustion engine) version, but one of the reasons cars should grow more expensive is because they get more technology, and we want those things,” Brinley said. “They make the car better and safer.”

Adjusting production and prices

Late last year, GM leaders said during a third-quarter earnings announcement that it would slow the launch of several new EVs, including the Equinox, Silverado and GMC Sierra EVs, to better match production to slowing EV demand.

In June, CFO Paul Jacobson said that the company would trim its targeted production of its new EVs in 2024 from between 200,000 and 300,000 to between 200,000 and 250,000. In March, when GM lifted a stop-sale on the Chevrolet Blazer EV due to a software problem, the automaker also lowered the entry prices on the three trim levels of the Blazer EV by as much as $6,520 to spark sales.

In the meantime, the automaker is working to reduce costs on EVs to pass the savings onto consumers, while also achieving profitability. EVs are not profitable at the moment, but GM has said they will be variable net profitable by year-end. Variable profit is when the revenue GM earns from selling the vehicle exceeds the direct costs associated with producing it such as the steel, rubber and labor. It does not account for all the fixed costs and investments GM is making in electrification.

Josh Tavel, GM’s senior vice president of Energy Storage and Propulsion, R&D, and Manufacturing Engineering, told the Free Press the company will be able to trim costs on EVs much faster than with gasoline-powered cars because with EVs, “you can share one motor across 60% your portfolio” and thereby share the technological advances easily. One example he gave was that GM’s Research and Development team recently discovered a new way to charge EVs that will reduce GM’s costs by $500 per vehicle across all of GM’s EVs.

Josh Tavel on June 24, 2015, when he was chief engineer of the Chevrolet Bolt EV. Tavel is now GM's senior vice president of Energy Storage and Propulsion, R&D, and Manufacturing Engineering.Josh Tavel on June 24, 2015, when he was chief engineer of the Chevrolet Bolt EV. Tavel is now GM's senior vice president of Energy Storage and Propulsion, R&D, and Manufacturing Engineering.

Josh Tavel on June 24, 2015, when he was chief engineer of the Chevrolet Bolt EV. Tavel is now GM’s senior vice president of Energy Storage and Propulsion, R&D, and Manufacturing Engineering.

“You don’t find a $500 cost reduction that doesn’t affect the customer on an (internal combustion engine) vehicle because the technology has been there and it’s not advancing at the pace it’s advancing at with EVs,” Tavel said. “But on the EV side, we’re coming up with amazing ideas on how to make significant cost reductions.”

In May, GM’s Barra told investors that reducing costs across the entire lineup will help ignite mass adoption and that can be achieved faster through joint ventures.

“One of the things that’s frustrated me in being in this role for 10 years … I think there’s many more opportunities where (manufacturers) can collaborate and reduce, at a minimum, your R&D or your engineering expense,” Barra said. “There’s a lot of aspects to a vehicle that a customer just wants to work, it’s not a distinguisher. I don’t buy a vehicle for its HVAC system. (Internal combustion) engines are going to exist around the world for a long period of time, but how do we do that more economically?”

GM and Honda had formed a partnership in April 2022 to develop a series of low-priced EVs on a new joint platform with the goal of building millions of cars starting in 2027. But in October of last year, they ended that partnership.

“I don’t have anything to announce today, but we are very open to how we take cost out,” Barra said in May. “It’ll be an important part of that equation to how we compete globally.”

Similarly, Ford CEO Jim Farley told analysts last month that his company’s interest in partnering with another company on EVs “is record-level high.”

“We’re not going to make any announcements on this earning call, but this is absolutely a flip-the-script moment for our company,” Farley said.

The Detroit Three working on smaller, cheaper EVs

Marin Gjaja, chief operating officer for Ford’s electric vehicle division model e, said the automaker has shifted its production of EVs to respond to slowing demand and lowered its EV pricing to be more competitive.

“We think that prices are reaching a normalization point. … We’re hoping that pricing is stabilizing,” Gjaja said.

Marin Gjaja, chief customer officer for Ford Model e, was part of the management team that met with Ford dealers in Las Vegas, Nevada in mid-September 2022.Marin Gjaja, chief customer officer for Ford Model e, was part of the management team that met with Ford dealers in Las Vegas, Nevada in mid-September 2022.

Marin Gjaja, chief customer officer for Ford Model e, was part of the management team that met with Ford dealers in Las Vegas, Nevada in mid-September 2022.

He said comparable gasoline-burning and EV models have fairly close prices, especially when considering the fuel savings and maintenance savings of EVs. He said the F-150 Lightning total cost of ownership is lower than the gasoline F-150 “or the Lightning lease is more affordable.”

“I don’t want to say we’ve reached parity because the upfront price on EVs can often still be higher, but when you adjust for the $7,500 tax credit and adjust for fueling costs and maintenance costs, it’s kind of a wash at this point,” Gjaja said. “What we’re seeing on a five-year ownership basis or on a three-year lease basis, consistently, EVs are competitive on five-year ownership basis and probably a slight advantage on a three-year lease, for comparable vehicles.”

But he admits there are still not enough “truly affordable small EVs out there, which is why we’re continuing to work on one. We’re focused on introducing even more affordable EVs.”

Ford has confirmed development of a smaller EV to compete with Chinese pricing, reportedly targeting a $25,000 price tag. Ford has not given the year of release or publicly discussed it in detail.

GM is working on a new Chevrolet Bolt to come out using its Ultium propulsion system in 2025 and experts such as S&P Global’s Brinley expect it to come in priced under the Equinox EV.

Stellantis CEO Carlos Tavares has spoken many times of the higher costs associated with EV technology and how that threatens to price out middle-class consumers. One part of the company’s answer to the cost issue is a pledge to bring an electric Jeep Renegade priced at less than $25,000 to North America by 2027.

Stellantis officials until recently hadn’t expressed much concern with pricing on gas-powered vehicles or the fact that the company basically abandoned the U.S. small car market in the days of Fiat Chrysler Automobiles in favor of larger and more expensive vehicles. The company’s average transaction price for its vehicles in May, according to Kelley Blue Book, was $57,266, higher than Ford and GM, at $56,595 and $51,239, respectively.

Stellantis’ EV strategy going forward

Stellantis first unveiled its business plan for the decade ahead in March 2022. It was called Dare Forward 2030. The automaker touted what it framed as a transformative plan, saying it would be the “industry champion in climate change mitigation.”

The most significant part of that effort focused on electric vehicles.

“As part of that leadership, we are setting the course for 100% of sales in Europe and 50% of sales in the United States to be battery electric vehicles (BEVs) by the end of this decade. We plan to have more than 75 BEVs and reach global annual BEV sales of 5 million vehicles by 2030,” the company announced at the time.

But, just over two years later, that doesn’t sound quite so certain.

In June, Tavares and other top executives held the company’s Investor Day in Auburn Hills, and Tavares offered what sounded more like a qualifier. The speed at which Stellantis makes that EV transition will be up to the customer. Those sales metrics announced in 2022 are manageable only if there’s a market for them, he said.

“Now if the market is not there, obviously, in our day-to-day decisions, we’ll take into consideration the fact that we are not going to use the money of our shareholders to invest in something that the customers do not want. Obviously,” he said.

Carlos Tavares, CEO of Stellantis, talks with investors at the company amphitheater during Stellantis Investor Day at their corporate headquarters in Auburn Hills on Thursday, June 13, 2024.Carlos Tavares, CEO of Stellantis, talks with investors at the company amphitheater during Stellantis Investor Day at their corporate headquarters in Auburn Hills on Thursday, June 13, 2024.

Carlos Tavares, CEO of Stellantis, talks with investors at the company amphitheater during Stellantis Investor Day at their corporate headquarters in Auburn Hills on Thursday, June 13, 2024.

Tavares has been critical of regulations that he says don’t provide automakers with enough flexibility.

“For our kids and our grandkids, I don’t think we can move away from bringing zero-emission mobility to our societies. It’s a moral and ethical responsibility vis-a-vis our kids and our grandkids, so we have to bring solutions and the solutions that we are bringing have been somewhat defined by the regulations,” Tavares said during Investor Day.

Unlike some of its competitors, Stellantis has employed an electrification strategy for the United States to date that has been heavily weighted toward hybrids, which appears to have served the company well so far. The company announced recently that the Jeep Wrangler 4xe, Jeep Grand Cherokee 4xe, Dodge Hornet R/T and Chrysler Pacifica Hybrid held four of the top-five sales spots for plug-in hybrids in the United States based on the S&P Global Mobility U.S. State Registrations database through April 30.

The company’s ongoing development of so-called multienergy platforms will also give it the ability to accommodate different powertrains, allowing it to continue offering gas-powered, electric or hybrid models into the foreseeable future.

GM sees growth coming

In early June, GM’s Barra stood firm on the automaker’s strategy to transition to EVs even as some shareholders questioned market demand for the vehicles during GM’s annual shareholder meeting. But Barra did say that, ultimately, the composition of GM’s future vehicle lineup will be guided by customer demand.

The comment was later fleshed out in an interview with NBC when Barra said the automaker’s plan to turn its fleet all-electric will now play out “over decades.”

“We said back in 2018 that we’re committed to an all-electric future,” Barra told “NBC Nightly News with Lester Holt” on Tuesday. “But as we make this transformation, it’s going to happen over decades.”

GM’s Tavel told the Free Press that dealers are doing their part to help spur EV adoption. He was recently at Mandal Buick GMC in D’Iberville, Mississippi, and the owner decided to put some GMC Hummers in the loaner fleet.

The GMC Hummer EV SUV completes the Hummer EV family and features a 126.7-inch wheelbase for tight proportions and a maneuverable body, providing remarkable on- and off-road capability.The GMC Hummer EV SUV completes the Hummer EV family and features a 126.7-inch wheelbase for tight proportions and a maneuverable body, providing remarkable on- and off-road capability.

The GMC Hummer EV SUV completes the Hummer EV family and features a 126.7-inch wheelbase for tight proportions and a maneuverable body, providing remarkable on- and off-road capability.

“He’s so excited about EVs and what’s it’s going to bring that he’s saying, ‘If I can put these in a customer’s hand who’s is getting new tires on their Denali pickup, great,’ ” Tavel said. “That’s how he’s starting to generate it. They’ll sell themselves. It’s about getting that awareness out there. “

In the meantime, he said GM has positioned itself to fullfill customer needs on either side of the coin: Electric or gasoline, with a varied lineup of models in each powertrain. That also protects the automaker over any political road bumps if regulations change with a change in the White House.

“To me it’s more of a long game,” Tavel said. “There was an awful a lot of hype and excitement over EV adoption. That’s not there as much. But keep in mind, we’re still, month-over-month growing. (The industry) started at 3.5% share and we’re up to 8-plus-percent share right now … so you see the growth coming.”

Ford needs to ‘be ready to compete’ for EV lead

Ford’s Gjaja said the potential EV market is huge and, “We can’t ignore the fact that last year Tesla and BYD each sold many multiples of the number of EVs we did. As a result, we need to be ready to compete. We can’t spot them an insurmountable lead.”

Ford has fully expected the U.S. market to be a mix of gasoline-powered, hybrid and fully electric vehicles for a while. He said the customers will ultimately drive adoption, and all automakers such as Ford can do is match production to demand.

The Ford F-150 Lightning EV pickup truck at the well lit customer acceptance line one of the final stages of the production process at the Ford Rouge Electric Vehicle Center in Dearborn on April 21, 2022.The Ford F-150 Lightning EV pickup truck at the well lit customer acceptance line one of the final stages of the production process at the Ford Rouge Electric Vehicle Center in Dearborn on April 21, 2022.

The Ford F-150 Lightning EV pickup truck at the well lit customer acceptance line one of the final stages of the production process at the Ford Rouge Electric Vehicle Center in Dearborn on April 21, 2022.

“The one thing we had to do over in 2019, ‘20, ‘21, was to try to catch up because the market on EVs got ahead of us. So we had to rush to catch up,” Gjaja said. “Now we feel like we have the right combination of powertrains to give our customers the freedom of choice.”

Ford’s strategy going forward is to offer products that “spur excitement” and meet all customers’ needs, while also figuring out a way to get EVs to profitability.

“I wake up every day trying to figure out how to be profitable on EVs,” Gjaja said. “That’s the challenge for all of us, is to get really competitive on cost and provide a product the customer desperately wants, in order to get demand and, ultimately, profitability.”

Gasoline cars will be on US roads for decades to come

The issues surrounding this giant transition to EVs are varied and complex, making a move to an all-electric future likely many decades away.

“Somewhere in the late 2030s almost all, the vast majority of vehicles sold, will be some sort of zero emission vehicle, mostly battery electric,” Guidehouse Insight’s Abuelsamid said. “But if you look at 2040, if we were selling 100% EVs in 2040 it doesn’t mean we’ll all be driving EVs. There are 290 million registered vehicles on the road in the U.S. We sell about 16 million to 17 million a year. So it will take decades to replace the entire vehicle fleet. Gas vehicles will not disappear any time soon.”

Over a dozen electric vehicles from various manufacturers are parked on a section of E 9 Mile Rd., near Woodward Avenue, during the first-ever Clean Cruise car show hosted by the Michigan Electric Vehicle Alliance (MEVA) in Ferndale on Saturday, Aug. 3, 2024.Over a dozen electric vehicles from various manufacturers are parked on a section of E 9 Mile Rd., near Woodward Avenue, during the first-ever Clean Cruise car show hosted by the Michigan Electric Vehicle Alliance (MEVA) in Ferndale on Saturday, Aug. 3, 2024.

Over a dozen electric vehicles from various manufacturers are parked on a section of E 9 Mile Rd., near Woodward Avenue, during the first-ever Clean Cruise car show hosted by the Michigan Electric Vehicle Alliance (MEVA) in Ferndale on Saturday, Aug. 3, 2024.

Executive analyst Karl Brauer of iSeeCars.com said everyone in the auto industry should be focused on how to facilitate this transition because at the rate EV adoption is going, the automakers’ targets of shifting production to all-electric will take longer than initially thought.

“Are they making a mistake going to all-electric? My short answer is yes. Maybe not long term. Going all electric by 2050, I’d say that’s a good goal. That’s somewhat aggressive but realistic,” Brauer said. “But 2030 is unrealistic foolishness and financially precarious at best. It’s a bad idea; it’s going to cost you a lot. The realistic take is, it will take a lot longer than what people were originally thinking.”

Free Press staff writer Arpan Lobo contributed to this article.

Contact Jamie L. LaReau: [email protected]. Follow her on Twitter @jlareauan. Read more on General Motors and sign up for our autos newsletterBecome a subscriber.

This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: EV adoption slowed by price, range, charging




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