Elias Lindholm: Easy Over on 60 Points? - MASHAHER

Despite a strong finish to his short stint with the Canucks, and without the promise of a top-six role, Elias Lindholm opted to sign a seven-year deal with the Bruins instead.

Lindholm strengthens the Bruins down the middle, which already boasts Charlie Coyle and Pavel Zacha. Though Coyle and Zacha both won more than half their draws, the Bruins were overall weak in the dot, finishing 21st in face-off winning percentage.

Lindholm, who tied J.T. Miller with most draws taken in the playoffs on the Canucks and used primarily in matchup situations, is expected to be the Bruins’ second-line center.

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This would either force Pavel Zacha to the wing, where he can play, or to the third line. But considering Zacha’s back-to-back 20-goal, 50-point seasons, the Bruins would not be maximizing his abilities by using him in a matchup role.

My projected Bruins’ 2024-25 lineup looks like this:

Pavel Zacha – Elias Lindholm – David Pastrnak
Brad Marchand – Charlie Coyle – Fabian Lysell
Trent Frederic – Morgan Geekie – Matthew Poitras
Max Jones – Johnny Beecher – Mark Kastelic

The one thing that really sticks out is the Bruins’ lack of offensive depth, unless top prospect Fabian Lysell, who finished fourth in scoring on a strong AHL Providence squad, really surprises They have depth down the middle but very little scoring on the wing, and I suspect this is where Lindholm and Zacha’s versatility will come in handy.

Elias Lindholm<p><button class= — Elias Lindholm
Bob Frid-USA TODAY Sports

Lindholm’s fantasy value is difficult to project because so much of it will depend on deployment. If Lindholm skates regular minutes with Pastrnak, there is no better situation to be in.

Lindholm scored just 15 goals last season on very poor shooting luck (8.7 S%), especially at even strength, and he should bounce back with at least 20 goals in 2024-25. Playing alongside Pastrnak will give him 40-assist upside, putting him back in the 60-point territory.

Without an absurd shooting percentage, such as in 2021-22 when he scored on 17.9 percent of his shots, or playing with (then) elite linemates such as Johnny Gaudreau (99 points) and Sean Monahan (78 points) in 2018-19, Lindholm would be hard-pressed to be a point-per-game player. Lindholm would need to play with Pastrnak on a regular basis, both at even strength and on the power play, and trust that Pastrnak can put up elite numbers once again.

Pastrnak, Marchand and Charlie McAvoy were the Bruins’ power-play mainstays, and look for Zacha to stick around while Lindholm takes James van Riemsdyk’s minutes. Lindholm was featured on the first unit with the Canucks in the playoffs, but he was never the primary playmaker nor the primary shooter. He’ll play a different role with the Bruins, and that should only increase his offensive ceiling.

In leagues that count face-offs, note Lindholm ranks fifth in both face-offs taken and face-offs won and that will change if he’s sharing duties with Zacha and Coyle. Beecher showed good proficiency in the dot, and Geekie should improve.

Center is a deep position in fantasy and I would hesitate to reach for Lindholm without a clear sign that he’s playing with Pastrnak. Lindholm is a steady, dependable center both in real life and in fantasy, and a great value pick in the middle rounds. But if you’re picking Lindholm for offensive upside… it’s not often a two-way veteran without a strong track record of putting up elite numbers does so on a new team as he enters his 30’s.

In other words, Lindholm feels a bit like a value trap. There’s some hype surrounding his usage and the prospect of playing 1C with Pastrnak, but that’s not a given and Lindholm’s own career numbers cast some doubt in his ability to produce numbers comparable to other 1C’s around the league, especially in fantasy.

My initial projections (subject to change) has Lindholm scoring 22 goals and 41 assists for 63 points on 177 shots, which seems conservative but in line with his production over the past few seasons and a massive improvement over the previous season. This is based on an estimated 19.5 minutes of ice time with the first power play unit and split penalty killing duties with Coyle, Zacha and Marchand.

Keep in mind I think Lindholm’s true value isn’t his scoring, but what he can do in other areas of the game and his versatility. A 60-point player for nearly $8 million a season seems expensive, but Lindholm brings immeasurable intangibles.

At the high end, 70 points seems reachable but my personal inclination is that it seems unlikely. The Bruins are not deep on offense even though they’ve been pretty good at generating quality chances, and I think they’re weaker in net now without a Linus Ullmark-Jeremy Swayman tandem, which potentially means more time defending.

How many points do you think Lindholm will score this season?

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