Australia’s jobless rate has lifted slightly to 4.2 per cent in July as the labour market continues to ease amid an environment of hawkish interest rates.
That compares to a national jobless rate of 4.1 per cent in June, according to data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
But a record number of Australians were either in work or looking — measured by the participation rate — at 67.1 per cent of adults.
About 58,000 people secured jobs in the month.
The unemployment rate has been slowly lifting from the multi-decade lows achieved as the country came out of the pandemic, when demand surged following significant stimulus.
The Reserve Bank last week predicted unemployment would “keep slowly rising until early 2025”.
ABS head of labour statistics Kate Lamb said unemployment was still much lower than before the pandemic.
“Although the unemployment rate increased by 0.1 percentage point in each of the past two months, the record high participation rate and near record high employment-to-population ratio shows that there continues to be a high number of people in jobs, and looking for and finding jobs,” she said.
“While unemployment increased to 637,000 people in July, the highest it has been since November 2021, it remains around 70,000 people below its pre-pandemic level. “
Economists view the sustainable long term rate of unemployment as about 4.5 per cent.
Bloomberg reported on Thursday morning that bond markets had dropped to a 13-month low as investors speculate the RBA will cut rates despite warnings such a move would be unlikely until inflation is under control.
On Wednesday, ANZ predicted the national economy would be in recovery mode through the next 12 months.
The big four bank reckons business investment will be stronger than previously though and expected tax cuts would spur punters to lift spending.
Economic growth will run at 2.1 per cent for the 2025 financial year, ANZ said. That’s up from a sluggish 0.9 per cent anticipated in the 12 months to June 2024.
Real household disposable income — pay adjusted for inflation and tax — will surge 4.5 per cent following tax cuts and cost of living support.
More to come
Source Agencies
